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Leaving Iraq, a Catastrophe to U.S.
Foreign Policy in the Middle East
6.4.2007
By Ardalan Hardi |
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April
6, 2007
Nearly two-thirds of Americans -- 63 percent -- want
U.S. troop’s home from Iraq by the end of 2008,
according to a poll taken by USA Today. While these
opinion polls are mostly media driven and are used
for political mud slinging from both sides of the
aisle to sway public opinion in the upcoming
elections, the fact remains that we cannot afford to
lose in Iraq if we are truly concerned about the
future of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
Abandoning Iraq is not only a catastrophe for those
who supported the U.S. efforts to bring about change
in the Middle East as a whole, but also a political
blow to American long-term interests and foreign
policy in the region.
One of the biggest factors for staying the course is
Iraqi oil. Losing Iraq’s oil production to a
regional power struggle will have a horrific impact
on international markets that will not only affect
the U.S. but it could throw the entire free world
market in a tail spin with oil prices at levels
never seen before. Amy Myers Jaffe in her research
paper (presented to The James A. Baker III Institute
for Public Policy – Rice University) says “Iraq
holds an important place in the political
development and economic trend of the international
oil market both historically and at the present
time. Iraq’s stated proven oil reserves of 115
billion barrels -while perhaps somewhat
overestimated during the rule of Saddam Hussein -
are among the largest in the world. The country’s
resource base is considered the second largest in
the world, second to Saudi Arabia, and its oil
export policy has been a critical element in setting
international oil supply and pricing for over 30
years.” Knowing this fact alone should make U.S.
politicians think of the consequences before making
hasty decisions for unilateral pull out of Iraq.
Yesterday; April 5, 2007 the Associated Press
reported that senate majority leader Harry Reid said
he wants to cut off money for the Iraq war next
year. In recent weeks, the House and Senate voted
separately to finance the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan but set an end date for combat in Iraq.
The House proposal orders all combat troops out of
Iraq as of Aug. 31, 2008, whereas the Senate orders
some troops to leave right away with the nonbinding
goal of ending combat by March 31, 2008. All of this
is a temporary solution to a conflict that we cannot
afford to let go and which will have an enormous
negative impact on our long-term national interest.
Our lawmakers should recognize that.
An abrupt retreat would invite a host of problems
including an all-out civil war. A civil war that
will most definitely draw in Turkey, Iran, Syria and
Saudi Arabia into the conflict. All of the
neighboring states are eager to devour a piece of
the pie; Iran with its religious propaganda, Syria
with his link to Ba’ath party, the Saudi’s with
their supposed concerns for the Sunni’s, and Turkey
with its hogwash excuses to protect their relatives
in Kirkuk. Turkey’s devious goals to squash Kurdish
aspirations are already interfering in Iraq’s
internal affairs. All this is happening while U.S.
military is present in Iraq. Imagine what will
happen if the U.S would pull out.
Those who advocate a quick withdrawal without
offering a realistic solution to the crises seem to
over look the consequences of the future U.S.
national interest and the possibilities of an
all-out regional war with a domino affect that will
eventually draw us back into a larger war with no
credibility.
Finally, if we fail in Iraq, it will be the biggest
blow to the prospect of democracy in the Middle East
with major political consequences in the future of
our foreign policy in that region. Muslim fanatics
and al-Qaeda groups will claim victory and will use
our failure to increase their presence in the
region.
The choices are clear: either we stay the course and
continue supporting the current government in Iraq
until it can stand on its own two feet or like many
others have advocated -- the establishment of
federal regions or dividing Iraq into three separate
states as a good solution for Iraq's security
problem and a quick withdrawal of our troops. One
thing is for certain: a complete retreat without
securing stability in Iraq is not in our national
interest and it is like President Bush had said “a
recipe for disaster.”
Ardalan Hadi. You may reach the author via email
at: kurdishaspect(at)yahoo.com
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