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A self-governing Kurdish entity in Syria –
a long-term reality?
11.8.2012
By Hiwa Zandi
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Special to
Ekurd.net |
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August 11, 2012
The political developments within and outside Syria
with respect to the Kurds underscores a new Kurdish
political reality: a self-governing Kurdish entity
is on the making in the north and north-eastern
parts of Syria.
For the past 17 months, the Syrian government is
struggling to dismantle the strong rebellion that
has impaired its credibility to maintain law and
order in the country.
Political analysts believe that the Syrian
government would not last long and give in whole or
parts of the country to the belligerent opposition
groups. The opposition groups are already claiming
to be in control of parts of Aleppo, the largest
Syrian city, and large areas of the countryside in
the north.
Kurds are very much part of the burgeoning political
developments. Taking the advantage of the power
vacuum in the north and north-eastern parts of the
country, created by the continuous and fierce
fighting between the government troops and
opposition fighters, Kurds have asserted power and
control in those areas. It is reported that Kurdish
political parties and armed forces are currently
administering several north and north-eastern border
districts, including Afrin, Kobane, Cindires, Derka
Hemko and Girke Lege. It is further reported that
Kurdistan flag is raised over official government
buildings. These political developments are
consolidating a self-governing Kurdish entity in the
Kurdish majority populated areas of Syria.
These political gains however remain unstable. It is
not determined how these developments proceed in the
long run. There are several internal and external
obstructions that may change the course of the
developments.
The internal impediments are primarily created by
the Syrian government and/or belligerent opposition
groups. These sources however do not pose any
serious threat at the moment. The Syrian government
is crumbling progressively. Many high ranking
government officials and military officers are
increasingly defecting. The military’s control over
the country has weakened due to the fierce internal
fighting. The State’s security apparatus has become
inexistent in the periphery of the country where
many of the Kurdish towns are located. The
prospective fall of the government at the core,www.ekurd.net
the Damascus, would therefore effectuate entire
removal of government’s remaining forces from the
Kurdish areas. Most of these areas, apart from
Qamishli, are already abandoned or forced to abandon
by the Kurdish armed forces.
The primary internal threat to any Kurdish entity is
therefore the future Syrian government which would
most probably be the Syrian belligerent opposition
groups headed by the Syrian National Council (SNC)
and dominated by the radical Sunni Islamists.
However, any such considerable threat is dependent
on the level of power they may consolidate in the
future Syrian political establishment.
Currently, there are reports that the Kurdish armed
forces have refused the Syrian opposition groups
entering the Kurdish areas. There is no doubt they
will keep doing so and confront them militarily
should they attempt entering the Kurdish areas.
Furthermore, as the Kurdish parties’ sphere of
influence widens in the Kurdish areas, the
inhabiting people are experiencing a level of
freedom they were deprived of for decades. In this
circumstance, they will not be ready to give away
their freedoms without fierce resistance.
Therefore, any attempt to realign the Syrian
sovereignty over the Kurdish areas may only be
realised through reconciling the Kurdish
aspirations. The Syrian Kurdish parties are pushing
for establishing a federal democratic government in
the Syrian Kurdistan in the post-Assad era. The
Foreign Affairs Office of the Democratic Union Party
(PYD) has called for support and protection in
establishing a self-governing Kurdish region in the
Syrian Kurdistan. The SNC leader, Abdulbaset Sieda,
himself a Kurd, in his recent visit to Erbil,
Kurdistan Regions capital, assured the Syrian Kurds
that their rights and identity will be protected
under the new Syrian constitution.
In addition to above internal complications, there
are also some external impediments that stem
primarily from the regional States. At the forefront
is Turkey. The Turkish government has shown serious
discomfort with the emerging Kurdish entity forfear
of a domino effect on its restive Kurdish
inhabitant. The Turkish government is apparently
concerned with the PKK infiltration into the Syrian
Kurdistan through the PYD and consequently opening
up another front for its fight against Turkey. It
has already bolstered its military build-up along
the border signalling a cross border military
intervention if PKK presence is continued.
The Turkish government has also accelerated its
diplomatic reaction. The Turkish Foreign Minister
recently visited the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The
visit was to pressure the Kurdistan Region to
retreat from giving any political and military
support to the Syrian Kurds.
However, the burgeoning political developments
indicate that Turkey has limited influence to
debilitate the new emerging Kurdish entity. The
Turkish government knows considerably well that any
military move into Syria will result in serious
internal, regional and international reaction. Syria
and Iran have already warned Turkey from any such
dangerous move. The US has also signalled its
disapproval. The US has further stated that the
Syrian people (including the Kurds) are in charge of
their future political direction. The Kurdistan
Region has also tacitly rejected any Turkish
intervention by stating that Syrian people need to
decide their future.
The PKK has also changed its fighting tactics for
the first time in its 28 years of armed struggle in
light of the current political developments in the
Syrian Kurdistan. PKK leader Murat Karayilan
recently announced that PKK strongholds being beyond
the Turkish borders remains talk of past and that
from now on the guerrilla forces will position
themselves in permanent strongholds within the
Turkish territory. He stated that the traditional
‘hit and run’ tactic will give way to a new tactic
of‘ attack from many directions, take position in
strongholds and protect the area’. According to
Karayilan, his guerrillas have already implemented
this new tactic in Hakari, Cizreand Zagros regions
in Turkey by taking positions in bulwarks located 35
kilometres inside the Turkish border.
It is interesting to note that these areas are
located in close proximity to the PYD controlled
Kurdish districts in Syria. This indicates that PKK
is making strategic moves to protect the emerging
political entity in Syrian Kurdistan by establishing
strongholds within Turkish borders closer to the
Syrian Kurdish areas.
These political developments indicate that the Kurds
are up for creating yet another semi-autonomous
Kurdish region. The US and European Union have not
actively opposed this emerging political
development. The regional States are not a position
to act unilaterally or collectively to derail this
new political entity. What is hoped for is that the
political transition takes place without destruction
and loss of human life.
Hiwa Zandi, Masters of Laws Student, University
of Queensland, Australia. A
regular contributing
writer for Ekurd.net
Copyright
© 2012 Ekurd.net. All rights reserved
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