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Curbing the Rise of Kurdistan
9.8.2012
By Daniel Brode, an Intelligence Analyst, Israel
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Ekurd.net |
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Iraqi soldiers patrol along the border between Syria
and Iraq in Qaim, located in the Euphrates river
valley 200 miles (320 kilometers) west of Baghdad,
Iraq, Friday, July 20, 2012 Photo: AP
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Kurdistan's Peshmerga forces on the frontier with
Iraq.
August 9, 2012
While a billion watched the festive display of
internationalism and multiculturalism at the Olympic
opening ceremony in London; the reality was much
different in the Middle East, where one of the
region’s oldest conflicts threatened to erupt into
all-out-war.
On July 27, thousands of Iraqi troops, tanks, and
artillery set out to seize the FishKhabur border
crossing with Syria in Iraq’s northern Zumar
district. But the days when Iraq could impose its
will over the scrappy and restive Kurdish north are
over. Blocking them were some 3,000 Kurdish
Peshmerga fighters, along with artillery - intent on
proving that Baghdad’s supremacy is no more. A tense
standoff between the Iraqi army and Kurdish
Peshmerga ensues, with neither side looking to back
down. The immediate standoff reflects the situation
at large: Iraqi Kurdistan is determined to rid
itself of Baghdad, establish itself as a regional
player, and use its burgeoning clout to serve as the
protector of Kurds throughout the region. Most
importantly, attempts by rival states to thwart
Kurdish ambitions threaten to ignite a new round of
Kurdish wars in a region already in flames.
This border area is disputed by the Shiite-led Iraqi
government and the Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG). FishKhabur has been under Kurdish military
control for years, which Iraq claims is illegal and
violates the country’s constitution. The KRG
disputes this and is determined not to forfeit their
only border crossing with Syria, nor to allow
Baghdad to reestablish its influence in an area
already “Arabized” and largely depopulated of ethnic
Kurds. Despite Baghdad’s official protestations, the
reality is much more strategic.
Iraq’s move on FishKhabur is a serious development,
as it seeks to control the border crossing so as not
to allow unchecked Kurdish continuity between
northern Iraq and Syria. Also, it should not be
ruled out that the incursion was a show of strength
by Iraqi PM Maliki,www.ekurd.net
now emboldened from surviving a no-confidence vote,
and determined on teaching the KRG a lesson for
seeking to oust him earlier this summer. But Iraqi
Kurdistan is a rising player in the Middle East. A
de facto-state, the KRG has hundreds of thousands of
seasoned troops, great economic potential, and a
strong desire to pragmatically increase its
independence. Few players in the region, aside from
Israel, are keen on seeing a Kurdish ascendancy, one
whose gains are seen as contradictory to the
respective national interests of many states.
Nowhere is this more evident than in Syria.
The standoff in Iraq is connected to Syrian-Kurdish
developments. In recent weeks, the Syrian Army
withdrew from the Kurdish-majority northeast, likely
in coordination between Syrian-Kurdish parties and
Damascus, and left the door wide open for Kurdish
rule. Almost immediately, the Kurds seized control
over cities and towns in the area. Unlike the Arab
Sunni uprising, the Kurds did not fire one shot to
free their cities. Dominating the region now is the
Democratic Union Party (PYD), the most powerful
Syrian-Kurdish party, a periodic ally of Assad, and
linked to the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party or
PKK. Needless to say, while Iraq and Turkey do not
agree on much these days, they are both opposed to
Kurdish control of northeastern Syria.
Turkey’s quest to oust Assad and play a leading role
in a post-bellum Syria is not without consequence.
Such efforts have brought Turkey’s enemy, the PKK,
to yet another Turkish border. For Turkey, a country
engulfed in decades of bloody warfare with the PKK
in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq, a new
front for PKK militants is an unwelcome development.
Baghdad on the other hand is wary of increased
Kurdish autonomy, unity, oil contracts, and military
strength; all of which threaten efforts to maintain
a unified, powerful, and stable Iraq.
Given stability in the KRG, far superior when
compared to most of Iraq, Iraqi Kurdish President
Barzani is working to facilitate his ethnic-kin’s
gains in Syria. As Iraq’s Kurdish de-facto state
continues to ascend, other Kurdish sectors are
energized and will likely seek to follow suit,
thereby making the KRG even more influential as it
remains the region’s only Kurdish entity. Moreover,
an increasingly strengthened and robust KRG is
likely to prevent the use of the Kurdish-cause as a
game of chess between competing regional powers, a
notable past-time for Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Iraq.
In the long-term, reducing interference from
regional powers will likely erode the main hindrance
to Kurdish aspirations, their lack of unity. With
all Kurdish parties unified against Iraq’s
incursion, it seems Baghdad’s actions are only
enhancing that long-awaited unity.
The current tension is a classic Middle East tussle,
wound up by transnational disputes, aspirations for
power, and revenge. Clearly, regional states are
scrambling to deal with the unforeseen Kurdish
ascent, perceived as threatening their interests of
machtpolitik. In the end, geopolitical realities are
different in 2012 than in previous decades, which is
evident in the KRG’s development into an
increasingly influential Middle East player.
Unfortunately for their rivals, they have little
ability to stop it.
Daniel Brode is an Intelligence Analyst with
Max-Security Solutions (Max-Security.com), a
geopolitical risk consulting firm based in Israel. He is a regular contribution writer and
columnist for Ekurd.net August 9, 2012
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© 2012 Ekurd.net. All rights reserved
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