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The New Middle East Political Dynamic And
The Kurds
3.8.2012
By Hiwa Zandi
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Special to
Ekurd.net |
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August 3, 2012
The changing political dynamic of the Middle East
may conduce the re-emergence of Kurds as important
regional political actors; precedents set from
thousands of years. Kurds may finally be in a
position to redeem their decades of usurped
freedoms. What is more important is the relative
power of the Kurds across the region to invest in
the changing political dynamic and to establish
their status as decisive actors in the new Middle
Eastern political equation.
In the last several decades, the Middle East
tolerated the abuses of power zealot, despotic
rulers. The cold war politics and the economic
requirement of access to low-price oil resisted any
attempt to change the status quo. The Kurds were
idled with the endurances of severe treatment from
the part of the despotic rulers and regimes. The
bipolar politics and energy interests would avoid
Kurds any political advance gaining ground. The
Kurdistan Republic of Mahabad (1946) and the Iraqi
Kurdistan semi-autonomous entity(1970)culminated as
a result of these unamicable circumstances.
The official end of bipolar structure in 1991 would
partly vary the prevailing political equation
vis-à-vis the Kurdish strategic political status.
This however did not prove to be a determinative
factor. The Kurdish political status started gaining
ground only after the Middle East’s traditional
political structure began threatening or harming the
Western interests. In the post-cold war era, the
terrorist activities orchestrated by the so called
Islamic extremist groups surfaced. The fear of
rising powers of uncompromising despotic rulers and
regimes arose. The threats posed by the Shi’a-crescent
dominion (with Iran at the epicentre, stretching to
the Shi’a Iraq, Syria and Lebanese Hezbollah) became
increasingly assertive. Israel and some regional
Western allied Sunni States were particularly
alarmed by the Shi’a-crescent security threats.
These factors would push for a radical overhaul and
redefining of the political dynamic of the region.
This changing political environment would also
accelerate and bolster the existing Middle Eastern
struggle for change.
What is witnessed now an unleashed Middle East set
to transform swiftly into apparently modern
democratic States. This is being partly charged with
curtailing the Shi’a power posture in the region.
How do Kurds from different Kurdish majority areas
of Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria in particular
Kurdistan Region of Iraq, established in 1991 after
imposition of no fly-zones over parts of north and
south of Iraq, partake in the equation and garner
political advances? Kurds may have limited but
promising political prospects. With the new Kurdish
political entity gaining ground in the Syrian
Kurdistan (North Syria), Kurds enjoy a golden
opportunity to establish the basis of a viable
future for the Kurdish State.
Kurds require procuring strong regional and/or
international political and security support for any
viable greater future entity.
Within the regional dimension, Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG)’s viable leverage is to use its
economic relations and the divergence of regional
political and religious divide for their political
interest. Gaining political support within the
context of strong economic relations with the
neighbouring countries in particular with Turkey and
drawing support from the regional States such as
Saudi Arabia, Arab Emirates and Qatar in the context
of Sunni – Shi’a struggle for dominance are
practical. However, any political support gained may
not be strategic and conducive to change in the long
run. This is because the immediate neighbours of the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq, an independent Kurdish
political entity, have vested interest in the status
quo of a divided Kurdistan. The farther nations,
being primarily Arabic, may not necessarily be
amenable to the emergence of a strong united Kurdish
entity as it may mean possible detachment of parts
of Kurdistan currently within the political
boundaries of Arab Iraq and Arab Syria and their
incorporation into a greater independent Kurdish
State.
Establishing alliance with the West, being primarily
the US and European Union (EU), through mutually
beneficial relations is therefore fundamental in the
long run for the viability of any Kurdish political
entity.
Kurds can provide the West with strategic political,
economic and security advantages in return for
political support and security protection.
Kurdistan Region of Iraq has proven to be profoundly
pro-western and an American ally. No American
soldier died in the Kurdistan Region in the war
against Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda remnants in
Iraq.
Kurdish political behaviour to a large extent is
driven by secular ideals. This is being the result
of relative congruent cultural character and
mainstream democratic political forces. In this
context, the KRG is proving to be a relatively
successful democratic political experiment which can
present as a model for the rest of Middle East.
With their geo-strategic location in the Middle
East, Kurds can also play a vital role for the
regional security which would also contribute to the
security of the Western interests in the region, in
particular Israel. Having secular and democratic
political orientation, the KRG can contribute to the
Middle East appeasement efforts. It can offer the
West a barrier to religious fundamentalism in the
region. Western policy-makers should encourage these
Kurdish potentials and in return provide security
guarantee to the Kurds against any regional threat.
On an economic level, Kurds can develop mutually
beneficial relations with the Middle Eastern and
Western States. The huge energy reserves (oil, gas
and other minerals resources) present within the
Kurdistan Region can provide immense contribution to
the Western nations’ energy needs.
The formation of Kurdo-Western geo-strategic,www.ekurd.net
economic and political relations in consolidating a
greater Kurdish entity in the region, however, is
not a trouble-free strategy. The antagonistic powers
including Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria still control
parts of Kurdish land. Historically, these regional
powers have acted collectively to destroy any
Kurdish political advances. Iraqi Kurdistan has been
autonomous since 1991 but without reuniting with the
other parts of Kurdistan, it remains a landlocked
entity. It cannot export its energy resources to the
international market without bilateral cooperation
with these States. Kurdistan Region’s unobstructed
access to the world energy market is crucial for its
long-term development and partnership in the
region’s strategic political dynamic.
Under the strong leadership of President Massoud
Barzani, the KRG has made reasonable economic
progress. International oil giants such as
ExxonMobil, Chevron and French Total have been
brought into the Kurdistan Region, a step which may
ultimately guarantee its long-term security and
progress. Kurdistan Region has also developed strong
economic relations with Turkey. A recent agreement
to transfer oil and gas resources to the world
market through the planned pipeline construction is
a vital development.
It is however important to understand that the
emerging economic relations between the KRG and
Turkey may not be a long term strategic arrangement
in the energy sector. Turkey’s strategic security
interest ultimately clashes with that of the
Kurdistan Region. Kurdistan Region’s growing power
and the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish entity in
the Syrian Kurdistan will politically affect
Turkey’s own Kurdish population inhabiting South
East of the country to demand similar regional
autonomy. Turkish security policy considers any
autonomy demand a direct threat to its territorial
integrity. For this reason, Turkey will take any
counter-effective political or economic measures
even in the energy sector to ensure its territorial
integrity. This is evident from the Turkish Prime
Minister Erdogan’s recent statement in which he
warned the Kurdish authorities in the KRG to stop
providing any military support to the emerging
Kurdish entity in the Syrian Kurdistan.
Therefore, Kurdistan Region’s strategic political,
economic and security interest in the region lies in
securing a further alternative route of access to
the world energy market. The current political
developments in Syria in general and Syrian
Kurdistan in particular are promising in terms of
such geo-political and economic interests. Several
districts in the Syrian Kurdistan are now reportedly
under the joint administration of the Kurdish
National Council (KNC), an umbrella organisation of
Syrian Kurdistan parties and Democratic Union Party
(PYD), a Syrian Kurdish armed political party
regarded as affiliated to the Kurdistan Workers
Party (PKK). The Syrian army reportedly handed over
these districts to the Kurds with minimal
resistance. Kurds now control Afrin, a majority
Kurdish district of approximately 490,000
inhabitants, located at a short distance to the
Mediterranean Sea. It appears inconceivable for the
Kurds to reach the Mediterranean Sea at this point
through the current Syrian borders. However, this
may be materialised by the convergence of strategic
political, economic and security interests with the
imminent future State of Latakia. It is reported
that Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad is working on
creating an Alawite dominated State of Latakia on
the Mediterranean coast in case he loses Damascus to
the rebels. In such a scenario, it is essential for
the KRG to take pre-emptive strategic measures in
reaching the Mediterranean Sea and securing future
energy interests.
In this context, the KRG would have to bolster the
emerging Kurdish entity in the Syrian Kurdistan.
This conduct would face severe Arab Syrian and
Turkish resistance; not naming the other political
actors in the region such as Iran and Shi’te Iraq.
Turkey would strongly oppose any Kurdish entity in
the Syrian Kurdistan not only because of perceiving
it as a direct threat to its territorial integrity
but also to stop any possible future export of the
KRG’s energy resources to the international market
outside its territories.
In the face of these impediments, it is fundamental
for the Syrian Kurdish factions and their brethren
in other parts of Kurdistan to maintain strong unity
and cooperation. In this circumstance, undertaking
an extensive international political campaign may
prove material to consolidate thee merging Kurdish
political entity in the Syrian Kurdistan. KRG would
also have to play a positive role in the political
transition of any possible future Alawite State and
take the initiative of establishing strategic
political and economic relations.
President Barzani has taken serious steps in this
direction in uniting different Syrian Kurdistan
political factions under the Erbil pact. As he
stated in his recent Aljazeera
interview, KRG has also provided
military training to the Syrian Army deserters of
Kurdish origins to fill any security vacuum in the
new emerging Kurdish entity.
Where this may lead to is unpredictable but it is
evidently clear that Kurds have the opportunity to
become an important regional political actor. Kurds
need to take strategic steps to drive the change in
the direction that serves their strategic political
interest.
Hiwa Zandi, Masters of Laws Student, University
of Queensland, Australia. Article for Ekurd.net
Copyright
© 2012 Ekurd.net. All rights reserved
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