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Can Iraq find its way out of its current
political stalemate? An interview with Joost
Hiltermann
21.8.2012
By Joel Wing —
Ekurd.net |
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Joost Hiltermann is the Deputy Program Director,
Middle East and North Africa. Washington, DC, USA.
Photo: crisisgroup.org
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Author
August 21, 2012
The International Crisis Group (IGC) is one of the
best sources on Iraq. Its reports contain some of
the most in-depth analysis of the situation within
that country. Joost Hiltermann is the Deputy
Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the
IGC, and is responsible for much of that coverage.
Below is a short interview with Hiltermann about
whether Iraq can solve its on going political
problems.
Q: The biggest issue today
in Iraqi politics is the power of Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki. People inside and outside the
country are calling him a dictator. Do you think
that he is becoming an autocrat?
Hiltermann: With
weak institutions, Iraq is unlikely to become a
thriving democracy, whoever leads it. The only thing
that is keeping Iraq from turning into a
dictatorship is the presence of checks and balances,
not in the system of government, but in the nature
of politics - - at least for now. With the major
parties representing ethnosectarian communities,
there is huge pressure on all to establish inclusive
governments, lest the country descend into civil
war. The presence of your political rivals in your
coalition government limits your scope of action,
and this prevents the emergence of an autocrat.
However, prolonged tenure allows a prime minister to
accumulate power, as indeed Maliki has done. This is
why it is important that the parties insist on a
regular rotation of the top leadership.
Q: How do you think
Maliki’s history as an exile politician has shaped
his worldview?
Hiltermann: Like
most of the exile politicians, Maliki’s worldview
was shaped by the need to survive in a most
dangerous environment, always the target of the
regime’s assassins. To survive, one should trust no
one. In a mirror image, Saddam also survived threats
to his rule by trusting no one and using one to spy
on another. As a result today, paranoia courses
through the former-exile class, and power is a
zero-sum game.
Q: Part of the reason why
Maliki has been able to grab so much power is that
the parties who are against him, like the Iraqi
National Movement and the Kurdish Coalition, are
divided, don’t use the tools available to them like
the parliament, and appear to be more interested in
holding onto office. Do you think they can become a
more effective opposition in the future?
Hiltermann: I
suppose these parties could pose a more effective
front against a runaway prime minister if they put
their minds to it, but even then, they would not
easily overcome the important issues that divide
them. It is hard to see, for example,www.ekurd.net
how Sunni Arabs and Turkmen from disputed areas
could make common cause with Kurds. Yes, they might
forge a joint strategy to get rid of Maliki, but
then, faced with the challenge of forming a new
government, they would get stuck on the issue that
matters most to them, and that has bedevilled Iraqi
politics since 2003: the status of disputed
territories.
Q: Finally, Iraq is due for
two more rounds of balloting, the 2013 provincial
and 2014 parliamentary elections. Do you think
anything will change with those votes, or will the
status quo between Maliki and the other parties be
maintained?
Hiltermann: It
is better not to make predictions in a situation as
volatile as Iraq, and the presence of significant
imponderables that could change everything, such as
the Syria crisis or a war between the United States
and Iran. Still, all things being equal, the balance
between the parties is unlikely to change a great
deal, as election results since January 2005 have
shown. The question is whether the elections will be
deemed free and fair by all major contestants, and
whether Maliki will try to cling to power if the
election results show he lost.
Joel Wing, with an MA in International Relations,
Joel Wing has been researching and writing about
Iraq since 2002. His acclaimed blog, Musings on
Iraq, is currently listed by the New York Times and
the World Politics Review. In addition, Mr. Wing’s
work has been cited by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, the Guardian and the
Washington Independent. You may visit his Blog
Musings On Iraq at musingsoniraq.blogspot.com
Copyright © 2012 Ekurd.net
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