|
Israel looks East and into the 21th
Century
17.7.2012
By Nimrod Asulin, Intelligence Analysts
—
Ekurd.net |
|
|
|
Israeli PM Netanyahu Wishes the Chinese People a
Happy New Year of the Dragon: Photo:YouTube/Ekurd.net
•
Read more by the Author
July 17, 2012
Israel vows to expand its ties with China and India
but has to consider America’s approach in order to
avoid jeopardizing the alliance. Whilst Israel is
focusing on China, it would better serve its long
term interests by betting on India.
In 1992, Israel broadly expanded its international
relations, taking advantage of the fall of the
Soviet Union’s Iron Curtain. Notwithstanding,
improving ties with the eastern powerhouses of China
and India was not a primary focus up until few years
ago. Recently, Israeli leaders have made successive
high profile visits to China, while engaging in
considerable public diplomacy efforts vis-à-vis the
Chinese people. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
even
greeted the
Chinese people in their native Mandarin during their
New Year’s Festival.
The growing cooperation with China is based on
bilateral agreements in the fields of technology,
green energy, agriculture, and water conservation.
Enhancing relations with China in these fields is
exactly how Minister of Trade and Labor Shalom
Simchon planned for Israel to become one of the
world’s top-15 economies. Simchon underlined that a
Free Trade Agreement with China is currently on the
agenda and is expected to be agreed upon in the
foreseeable future.
These warming relations however, are constantly in
jeopardy. Israel’s primary ally, the United States,
fears China’s increasing threat to its hegemonic
position, acts to limit the Chinese influence in the
Middle-East. Previous Israeli attempts to bolster
relations with China went up in smoke in 2000, when
the Americans terminated a 250$ million deal
involving the sale of sophisticated military
equipment, including the “Phalcon” early warning
aircraft.
Despite China’s tempting economic opportunities, the
Israelis are unlikely to toe the line with their
American sponsors in the near future. Ties with
India, on the other hand, have proven to be a far
safer bet. While the United States thwarted the
Phalcon deal with China, they approved a similar
deal between Israel and India some years later. Like
China, India boasts a rapidly emerging market, a
vast population, and most importantly- a growing
need for Israel’s conservation methods and
technology. To sweeten the deal, the Stockholm
International Peace Institute ranked India as one of
the world’s largest arms-importers in its 2012
reports.
Yet, unlike China, India is a democratic nation with
similar national security concerns as Israel, mainly
vis-à-vis Pakistan. Israel may try to capitalize on
this interfacing point, as both nations are
endangered by radical Islamists and seek for
resembling tactical resolutions. As the political
clay in Pakistan produces security instability in
the Hindu subcontinent, Israeli officials are deeply
concerned by the growing Islamist trend that storms
the Middle East, what they described as "Islamist
Winter", as opposed to the common positive idiom
"Arab Spring" widely spread amongst Western decision
makers.
An Indian-Israeli cooperation over security issues
was previously recorded after the terror attack on
Mumbai on 2008 perpetrated by Pakistani group
Lashkar-e-Taibe, when Israeli security forces
trained the elite Indian counter-terror unit, Force
1. In addition, Israel has become India’s second
biggest arms supplier, overtaking Russia recently.
Nevertheless, not everything is coming up roses
between the two countries: on March 2012,www.ekurd.net
India did not approve an official visit of Israel’s
Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, out of the threat of
public discontent amongst the nation’s large Muslim
minority. This incident combined with India’s
moderated policy towards Iran serves as a remainder
of the near term differences still to be resolved if
the sides aim for rapprochement to materialize.
When the new geo-political order of the 21th century
will materialize approximately 10-20 years from now,
Israel has to be fully on the Americans side, as the
alliance with the U.S. is its most precious asset.
Thus, Israel ought to deeply consider any diplomatic
maneuver it conducts nowadays in order to avoid
snags with the U.S. India is likely to play a main
role in the international arena in the upcoming
decades. Although India's dependence on Iranian
crude oil has put many hinders on the current
sanctions campaign against the Islamic Republic, in
the long term, India is likely to change its
policies due to its necessary to feed a rapidly
growing population and balance China. Eventually,
the well-acknowledged sophisticated Israeli
agricultural know-how techniques and the American
ability to offset intensifies China will likely
prompt the Indians to team with the West.
Nimrod Assouline is an Intelligence
Analyst with
Max Security Solutions, a geopolitical
risk consulting firm based in the Middle East,
specializing on Israel's foreign affairs.
A
regular contribution writers and columnists for Ekurd.net
July 17, 2012
Copyright
© 2012 Ekurd.net. All rights reserved
Top |
The opinions
expressed in this commentary are solely those of the
author
|
®
