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PKK factions wanted to kill Karayilan,
Stratfor analyst claims
12.6.2012 |
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Murat Karayilan is the acting commander of the
Turkey Kurdistan Workers' Party (Partiya Karkeren
Kurdistan - PKK) and chairman of the executive
council of the Kurdish Democratic Confederation (KCK) . Photo:
HPG
June 12, 2012
LONDON, — Murat Karayilan assumed the
position of de-facto leader of the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK) after Abdullah Ocalan was
imprisoned in 1999. In emails sent in August 2010,
leaked by WikiLeaks, Stratfor analyst Michael Wilson
claimed there were concerns within the Turkish
government that “more racial factions in Germany
could eliminate Karayilan” during negotiations
between the Turkish intelligence service and PKK.
The Turkish government held secret talks with the
PKK in Norway in 2010. Experts generally agree that
the Justice and Development Party (AKP) adopted a
more hard-line policy against the PKK after the
talks proved fruitless.
PKK spokesperson Roj Welat told Rudaw that despite
the Turkish delegation’s acceptance of Ocalan’s
roadmap, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
rejected it and “stepped up violence and terror
against the freedom struggle of the Kurdish people
as a whole,” including arrests of Kurdish
politicians and activists, and stepping up military
operations.”
In August 2010, Wilson suggested that the “real man
in charge is Murat Karayilan,” and that he was the
only one within the PKK able to implement a
ceasefire, not Ocalan. Stratfor analysts discussed
the state-PKK talks, and the policies of the AKP
government towards the PKK.
Wilson thought that the imprisoned PKK leader did
not have the same influence over the party that he
used to and that efforts by the AKP to negotiate a
ceasefire with Ocalan had failed. The PKK allegedly
ignored Ocalan’s call for a ceasefire and carried
out an attack in Silvan on July 14, 2011 that killed
13 soldiers and wounded seven others.
Wilson wrote, “The PKK uses Ocalan when they need
him. They lament his treatment in prison and follow
his call, etc., to benefit from his charisma among
the Kurds but they don’t take orders from him as
much as they did before. This is especially true of
the PKK branches in Germany. The real man in charge
is Murat Karayalin in Qandil. Only when the MIT
[Turkish intelligence] negotiated with him were they
able to implement the ceasefire.”
Wilson added, “I have seen some internal documents
expressing concern that the more radical factions in
Germany could eliminate Karayalin. We need to keep
him alive. He is the only one who will negotiate
with us and who can enforce it. We can't afford to
lose him.”
Reva Bhalla, Stratfor’s director of analysis, agreed
with Wilson that there were government concerns over
“keeping Karayilan alive.” “The MIT learned the hard
way when they attempted to quietly negotiate a
ceasefire with him [Ocalan] months ago, and that
Karayilan is their main guy that they can deal with,
but he faces a lot of resistance from more radical
factions in Europe.” Bhalla said.
But Stratfor’s Turkish analyst Emre Dogru disagreed
that Ocalan’s influence over Karayilan and PKK was
waning.
A source within a pro-PKK organization in Europe
told Rudaw on condition of anonymity that Ocalan is
still the “number one” within the group. This source
said that Karayilan was actually appointed by Ocalan
to create unity within the ranks of the PKK after
the leader’s capture when some PKK members tried to
create a splinter party.
The PKK thinks Stratfor’s sources are misleading and
think this is part of Turkey’s campaign to target
the PKK leadership. In March 2012, Turkey offered up
to 1.6 million euros in reward for information
leading to the capture of members of the PKK
leadership. PKK spokesperson Roj Welat said that the
news is “a part of special warfare structure of the
Turkish state and its government against the freedom
struggle of the Kurdish people and its leadership.”
Michael Günter, a prominent expert on Kurds, told
Rudaw that he was under the impression from meetings
with Kurds that they would like to restart the Oslo
process. “Of course, there are always some who are
very radical, but I do not think there is any strong
radical element in Europe that wants to get rid of a
too mild Karayilan. If anything, Karayilan is too
militaristic for most in Europe. Also, from
everything I’ve heard, it is not true that Iran
captured and then released Karayilan last year.”
Another PKK expert who wished to remain anonymous
told Rudaw that Stratfor might be correct that
Ocalan’s ability to lead the PKK from prison is
limited, but emphasized that the idea the PKK in
Europe want to kill Karayilan is “absurd” and
“typical Turkish hysteria and conspiracy thinking.”
Dr. Vera Eccarius-Kelly, an analyst and scholar who
has written extensively about the PKK, told Rudaw
she doubts that “German PKK members or its network
of sympathizers would advocate the elimination of
Karayilan. While Kurdish activists articulate
increasingly diverse positions, it is incorrect to
interpret that development as a weakening in the
hierarchical structure of the PKK core. In my
estimation, Karayilan's position has not
significantly changed among PKK members in Europe.”
Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based analyst, says that
some of the comments by the analysts were
inaccurate, and added that the “the analysts'
willingness to take the claims published in Taraf at
face value without examining them in detail raises
questions about some of the other information they
provide, including whether they are just repeating
what they have been told without attempting to
substantiate it.”
Jenkins added that there are indeed tensions within
the broader Kurdish nationalist movement between
younger, more radical elements and the older
generation. “One of the challenges for the PKK has
been to keep these younger elements under control,”
he said. “I don't know that it is necessarily
elements in Germany,www.ekurd.net
and the leadership of the PKK in the mountains of
northern Iraq is so well-entrenched. I would be
surprised if anyone coming from Europe could
displace them. People like Karayilan have been in
the mountains for around 30 years.”
A retired U.S. diplomat told Rudaw, on the condition
of anonymity, that some of his sources confirm there
are tensions within the PKK in Germany. He said,
“Indeed there are elements in the PKK in Germany
hostile to Karayilan, but he [his source] doubts
seriously that they have the capacity to ‘get rid
of’ him.”
Jenkins added that Karayilan is relatively moderate
compared to other PKK leaders such as Cemil Bayik.
But he suggested that the main problem is the risk
of increased violence in Turkey after the failure of
the Oslo process.
On May 25, a suicide car bomb killed one policeman
and wounded more 20 other people, including
children. The attack was blamed on the PKK. The PKK
is holding AKP’s Kulp district chairman Veysel Çelik,
a district governor, a police officer and two
soldiers as prisoners. The provincial leader of the
AKP was killed on May 17 in Sirnak, and several PKK
insurgents and Turkish soldiers were killed in
recent clashes.
Jenkins emphasized the danger of increased violence
due to young Kurds being frustrated over the fact
the PKK is not pursuing a more ruthless line,
especially during ceasefire periods. “Of course, the
situation now is a little different. It was the AKP
which broke off negotiations with the PKK and it is
the AKP which is refusing to resume them. Under such
circumstances, the PKK leadership feels that it has
no choice but to resort to violence, both to
demonstrate its relevance and to try to ensure that
small groups of young radical Kurdish nationalists
don't attempt to take things into their own hands.”
Cemil Bayik, a senior PKK official, told the
pro-Kurdish news agency Firat that “Unless
negotiations are resumed – and, of course, in order
to reach some form of agreement both sides have to
make concessions – not only will there be sustained
PKK violence, but the younger generation of Kurdish
nationalists, who at the moment are barely being
held in check by the organization's leadership, are
likely not only to be much more ruthless but to
demand full independence.”
By Vladimir van Wilgenburg
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