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Is a Kurdish State on the Horizon?
7.6.2012
By Daniel Brode, Intelligence Analysts
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Ekurd.net |
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June 7, 2012
While the media is focused on Iranian nuclear talks,
the war in Syria, and the elections in Egypt, Iraqi
Kurdistan (KRG) is making headways in severing
Baghdad's grip over its national ambitions, chiefly
the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.
Still, numerous obstacles remain along with plenty
of regional and international dissenters, not to
mention the task of overcoming a web of Kurdish
political rivalries. While a myriad of concerns
exist, fresh geopolitical realities are furthering
the Iraqi Kurdish cause. Those realities, which have
manifested into a new pipeline deal with Turkey, are
turning the KRG into an influential and crucial
player in the Middle East, which could arguably
propel a push for Kurdish independence – sooner
rather than later.
While ethnic Kurds are spread out throughout Iraq,
Iran, Syria, and Turkey, their Iraqi brethren have
advanced the most in terms of achieving
Kurdish-nationalist goals. Since 2005, Iraqi
Kurdistan is a semi-autonomous region, and one that
is secured by its own forces, relatively stable, and
increasingly able to make unilateral foreign policy
decisions - much to the chagrin of Baghdad.
Moreover, the defeat of their premier threat, the
Iraqi army, by the Americans in 2003, contributed
immensely to Kurdish sovereignty. Then America's
continued presence fostered a period of internal
stability and growth, while the region’s
preoccupation with a ruthless Sunni and Shiite
bloodletting enabled the KRG to entrench itself as a
formidable player in Iraqi politics.
With that in mind, the issue of oil remains one of
the main obstructions to Kurdish independence in
Iraq. As a developing entity, the Kurds rely on
their southern Arab neighbor to transfer and ship
newly discovered oil reserves to foreign markets.
The long running Arab and Kurdish dispute within
Iraq continually jeopardizes existing oil
agreements, notably leading to a recent halt of all
oil traffic from Kurdistan. Iraq realizes that its
hold over Iraqi Kurdistan lies mainly in controlling
oil infrastructure and the market, thereby limiting
Kurdish abilities to sell oil on its own - a major
step towards independence from the Arabs.
Then late last month, it was reported that Ankara
and Erbil agreed on energy pipelines from Iraqi
Kurdistan to Turkish terminals, two of which were
made without Baghdad’s consent. The plan has enraged
Baghdad not only for its timing - as Shiite Iraq
remains in a diplomatic quarrel with Turkey, but
also for its brazen and purposeful meddling in
Iraq’s internal affairs. But for the Kurds, the
pipelines are a strategic breakthrough and likely to
alleviate the long term problem of Baghdad’s
monopoly of infrastructure development in all of
Iraq.
Building and securing pipelines in the Middle East
is no easy task. Hence, the Turkish-Kurdish plan
signals Ankara’s faith in the KRG’s ability to
secure territory and enable the continuous flow of
energy to meet Turkey’s growing needs. That said,
Iraqi Kurds are likely wary of Turkish intent, given
the ongoing feud between Shiite Iraq and Sunni
Turkey, plus the nature of Middle East power
politics. To that point, the Kurds are used to being
a chess piece in a region of competing powers,
mainly Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria - all fighting
for their own geostrategic ascendancy.
With that in mind, Kurdish alliances are often
short-term and need-based, thus warming
Turkish-Kurdish relations do not mean Turkey wants
Iraqi Kurdish independence. Turkey has its own very
violent Kurdish conflict,www.ekurd.net
thus cooperation between Turks and Kurds is likely a
strategy of increasing Ankara’s influence in Iraq by
taking advantage of the current political stalemate
in Baghdad, while giving a sharp blow to its new
regional rival, the Iranian aligned Maliki
government. Nonetheless, the pipelines offer them
concrete gains in the form of energy infrastructure,
thus the Kurds will gladly play along with Turkey as
long as their partnership mitigates their most
pressing issue - removing themselves from the Iraqi
vice.
That vice is widening, as Iraq’s ability to control
a stable, ethnically homogeneous, and increasingly
influential and prosperous Kurdish entity wanes. The
pipelines mark an important step forward for Iraqi
Kurds; however, no step was possible if they had not
laid the foundations that necessitate such a
development. These are primarily two: stability
within Iraqi Kurdistan and the increasingly hostile
relationship between Iraq and Turkey. In the future,
Iraq will undoubtedly seek to maintain its influence
over its separatist northern regions, however, the
Kurds are pressing ahead with independence from
Baghdad - with or without their consent.
Daniel Brode is an Intelligence
Analysts with
Max Security Solutions, a geopolitical
risk consulting firm based in the Middle East.
A
regular contribution writers and columnists for Ekurd.net
June 7, 2012
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