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Iraqi Kurdistan Pouring Oil on Troubled
Waters
7.6.2012
By Ines Tamaddon - World Policy |
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June 7, 2012
Oil means power, and after almost a century-long
struggle for independence, the semi-autonomous state
of Iraqi-Kurdistan has wrested control over its oil
resources, giving greater voice to Kurdish demands
for independence.
Since the break up of the Ottoman Empire in the
early 20th century, the Kurds have been
systematically displaced and denied their
independence. The Allies of World War I divided up
predominantly Kurdish territory between Turkey,
Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Although the Kurds are the
4th largest ethnic group in the Middle East
(following the Arabs, Persians, and Turks), they
have had difficultly achieving independence. It
wasn’t until the 1970s that Iraqi-Kurdistan gained
any semblance of autonomy. In 2005, the region was
finally granted an official, autonomous status
within Iraq. Now known as the Kurdistan Region of
Northern Iraq, the area is run by the Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG). Iraqi-Kurdish influence
in the world of petro-politics is growing in the
face of the Kurds' (increasingly autonomous)
position on top of Iraq's richest oil fields.
At the insistence of major regional powers (Iraq,
Turkey, and Iran) that do not want to see an
independent Kurdish state—because of the possible
flight risk from the large Kurdish minorities in
their own countries—the plight of the Kurds has been
put on the back-burner. Most recently however, the
Kurds have taken a bold step toward the betterment
of their people through an oil pipeline that is
planned to run from the field of Taq Taq to Turkey
by August 2013.
Oil could be the answer the Kurds have been looking
for. Although it will still be Iraqi oil, it will no
longer travel through the Iraq National Pipeline,
thereby giving the Kurds authority over the natural
resources of their region. According to United Press
International, “plans for Iraq's semiautonomous
Kurdish enclave to build an oil pipeline to Turkey
points to a major political and economic realignment
in the Middle East that will impact heavily on
Iraq.” This decision not only signals to Baghdad and
the international community that the Kurds have
strengthened their autonomous state, but that they
are seeking independence.
Estimated to have 45 billion barrels of oil,
Iraqi-Kurdistan is the 6th largest source of oil in
the world. Specifically, the field of Kirkuk—where a
second pipeline is scheduled in 2014—holds a third
of Iraq’s reserves. Baghdad refuses to recognize
this land as Kurdish,www.ekurd.net
even though it is clearly in Iraqi-Kurdistan. Iraq
wants to retain the resource-rich land that has the
potential to skyrocket the nation's economy above
that of their neighbors. With this new pipeline, 17
percent of oil revenue will be allotted to the
Kurds—the maximum allowed by Iraq’s National
Budget—while the rest will go to the Iraqi federal
government, stated the KRG’s Natural Resource
Minister, Ashti Hawrami.
Aram Azez, a former Kurdish politician and current
editor-in-chief of the Independent Kurdistan
Journalism news website, says, “if Turkey would be
sincere about the deal and [if] this oil pipeline
[is] completed, it could mean a major step towards
Kurdistan's complete independence from Iraq.”
David Romano, a columnist for Rudaw magazine as well
as a Professor of Middle Eastern Politics at
Missouri State University, describes this
development as a “strategic step” that would allow
Iraqi-Kurdistan to create relationships independent
of Baghdad.
For years, Iraqi-oil led to “the greed [that]
encouraged authoritarianism and raised the stakes
for controlling Baghdad, while the weapons purchased
with oil money saw use suppressing Kurdistan year
after year,” explains Romano in his recent article
for Gulan magazine.
All sides must tread with caution since any regional
dispute at this moment in time would not end well
for either party. It is also not in the Kurds best
interest to completely detach themselves from
Baghdad as they have yet to establish themselves as
independent players in the global oil market. By
losing Baghdad and becoming dependent on Turkey,
they would just be “shifting one patron with
another. Their ideal scenario is that they mend
fences with Baghdad and still do the pipeline with
Turkey,” explains Romano. At least, for now.
The pipeline process may not be an easy one.
Although some call the pipeline illegal, the KRG
argues otherwise. Many simply fear the power
Kurdistan will gain from this oil deal and how a
powerful Kurdish state will impact their own
countries.
Kurds have been struggling for their independence
for nearly a century, and many experts recognize
that oil could be their ticket. Romano believes that
Iraqi-Kurdish independence is possible, but not
without a “patron ally.” Ten years ago, he says, “no
one would have expected this but [today] Turkey is
emerging as that possible ally for the Iraqi-Kurds
that could allow them independence.”
Not everyone agrees. Azez, for one, is skeptical.
While “Kurdistan is surrounded by four unfriendly
states that are suffering from their own Kurdish
problems,” he personally doubts that “Turkey will be
a friendly neighbor to Kurdistan.” In fact, the
former Kurdish politician goes so far as to blame
Turkey for any political friction. “Turkey is the
only country that creates regional tensions. So, if
Turkey will be a supportive country of [Iraqi] Kurds
to export their natural wealth via Turkey, then
there won't be any crisis even if the Kurdish
leaders would be brave enough to declare
independence from Iraq.”
Whether or not Turkey will or even wishes to become
a Kurdish ally in the ethnic minority's struggle for
independence, the pipeline marks the beginning of a
relationship that could potentially benefit both
parties—one that could facilitate the achievement of
other "political, economic, and security plans,"
according to Azez.
If Kurds can control Iraq's oil spigot to Turkey,
they will have the kind of wealth and influence they
could only dream of until recently. Oil revenue will
transform the future of Iraq's Kurdish population
and quite possibly—put them on the road to true
independence.
Ines Tamaddon is an editorial assistant at the
World Policy Journal.
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author or news agency,
worldpolicy.org
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