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Iran tries to mediate Iraq’s political crisis, but can they
overcome the deep divisions in the country? |
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Iran tries to mediate Iraq’s political
crisis, but can they overcome the deep divisions in
the country?
9.6.2012
By Joel Wing —
Ekurd.net |
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June 9, 2012
As Iraq’s political crisis has dragged on, more
and more countries have been dragged into the fray.
One such nation is neighboring Iran, which has close
ties to all of Iraq’s major parties. Tehran is
currently worried that the opponents of Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki are gaining more power, and
creating more uncertainty in the country. As a
result, Iran has been holding talks with Iraqi
leaders both within and without the country. Iran
would rather have a stable, sectarian government,
led by Shiites than the current situation where the
major lists are increasingly turning upon Maliki.
Iran has been trying to play the role of mediator in
Iraq’s current dispute. Iranian officials have been
travelling to Baghdad and Irbil, and hosting Iraqis
in Iran. Iranian leaders have consulted with Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki such as in January 2012
when he met with the speaker of Iran’s parliament
Ali Larijani. Iran’s ambassador to Iraq Hassan
Danafar has also talked with Iyad Allawi of the
Iraqi National Movement (INM), President Jalal
Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK),
Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the head of the National
Alliance (NA), and Ammar al-Hakim, the leader of the
Supreme Council, and NA member. In April, Maliki
travelled to Iran, nominally to prepare for the 5 +
1 conference over Iran’s nuclear program that was to
be held in Baghdad, but it was also to discuss with
Iranian leaders, Shiite clerics, and Sadr the Iraqi
political scene. While there, the premier had
meetings with Moqtada al-Sadr, Ayatollah Mahmoud
Hashemi Shahroudi, Iran’s Vice President Mohammed
Reza Rahimi, President Mahmoud Ahmadenijad, and
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Iranians were able to get Maliki and Sadr to
sign a letter of understanding, but it didn’t last.
As Sadr increased his rhetoric against Maliki, Iran
upped the ante. Ayatollah Kadhem al-Hussein al-Haeri,
the spiritual leader of the Sadr movement who is
based in Iran, issued a fatwa forbidding his
followers from voting for secular candidates with an
explicit mention of Iraq. Sadr rejected that decree
saying that Iraqi parties were a mix of secular and
Islamist politicians, and accused Haeri of working
for foreign powers. Iran then allegedly closed down
Sadr’s offices in Tehran at the beginning of June,
and requested that he come to Iran for talks. There
were conflicting reports about what the outcome of
that trip was. Members of the Sadr Trend stated that
Iran wanted them to drop their push for a no
confidence vote against Maliki, but that they would
not budge.
A member of State of Law then claimed that a deal
had been worked out between the two, which was
quickly denied by the Sadrists. Besides trying to
squash the no confidence move against Maliki, Tehran
has focused upon several other issues according to
press reports. Those include trying to get the
Kurdish Coalition and the prime minister to make
concessions to each otherwww.ekurd.net
and convincing Maliki that he should follow through
with more parts of the Erbil Agreement, which helped
put together the current government in 2010. All
along, Iran’s goal has been to return Iraq to the
status quo. That means a government in Baghdad based
upon sectarian quotas, where all the major lists had
their share of top offices, while being led by
Shiites. Surprisingly, this is the goal of the
United States as well. The problem is that parties
such as the National Movement, the Kurdish
Coalition, and now the Sadrists believe that the
premier is taking too much power for his own State
of Law list, disrupting the delicate balance within
the ruling coalition. With the American military now
out of Iraq, Tehran does not want chaos on its
doorstep, especially when it is facing the possible
fall of its longtime ally in Syria. Iran has
therefore been doubling down in recent weeks to get
Iraq’s parties to come to some type of agreement so
that they stop their constant bickering.
Many believe that Iran has attempted to dominate
Iraq since the 2003 fall of Saddam and turn it into
a puppet state. Serious analysis of Tehran’s
strategy has shown it to be much more nuanced. Their
main goal appears to be aimed at building up various
forms of soft and hard levers within the country so
that whenever a major issue arises, Iran will be
able to influence events to their liking. That is
exactly what they are trying to do now by having
talks with all of Iraq’s factions. Their power will
be severely tested in this situation, because many
of these disputes date back decades, and are deeply
personal. With U.S. troops out of Iraq, its
politicians are also highly sensitive to claims that
they are giving in to foreign influences, and want
to assert their nationalist credentials. That’s why
figures like Sadr who are deeply connected to Tehran
are able to go against its will in his confrontation
with Maliki. Despite Iran’s best efforts than,
however the current crisis plays out it will
ultimately be Iraqis who decide their fate.
SOURCES
Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Iraqi president rebuffs move
to unseat premier,” Associated Press, 5/30/12
Ahmed, Hevidar, “Maliki Given Ultimatum at Leaders
Meeting in Erbil,” Rudaw, 4/29/12
AIN, “Iran pressurizes to prevent withdrawing
confidence from Maliki, says Naji,” 6/6/12
- “Kinani denies reaching agreement between Sadr
Trend, SLC in Iran,” 6/6/12
- “Musawi: Sadr Trend, SLC about to reach agreement
to settle crisis,” 6/6/12
- “SLC not part of political negotiations conducted
in Iran, says Allaq,” 6/6/12
Alsabawi, Jasim, “Sadr Movement Claims No Ulterior
Motive to Leader’s Erbil Visit,” Rudaw, 5/9/12
Al Estiqama, “Iran shut down Sadr’s office in Tehran
because of its demand to withdraw confidence from
the Maliki,” 6/1/12
Habib, Mustafa, “getting rid of nouri: PM’s critics
consider options to remove ‘dictator,’” Niqash,
5/3/12
Hatem, Oudai, “Muqtada al-Sadr Ignores Fatwa Against
Secularist Candidates,” Dar al-Hayat, 6/4/12
Najm, Hayder, “enemies in common: diplomacy from
iran and west heals political rift in iraq,” Niqash,
2/15/12
Seibert, Thomas, “Erdogan’s bid to end Iraq power
struggle,” The National, 1/11/12
Sowell, Kirk, “Inside Iraqi Politics No. 38,”
5/16/12
UPI, “Iran steps in to prop up to Iraq’s Maliki,”
6/5/12
Visser, Reidar, “Endgame for the Prime Minister?”
Sada, 5/29/12
Joel Wing, with an MA in International Relations,
Joel Wing has been researching and writing about
Iraq since 2002. His acclaimed blog, Musings on
Iraq, is currently listed by the New York Times and
the World Politics Review. In addition, Mr. Wing’s
work has been cited by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, the Guardian and the
Washington Independent. You may visit his Blog
Musings On Iraq at musingsoniraq.blogspot.com
Copyright © 2012 ekurd.net
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