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Echoes of Syrian Violence in Lebanon
21.5.2012
By Daniel Brode and Roger FarHat, Intelligence Analysts
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Ekurd.net |
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Sunni Muslim Salafist leader Ahmad al-Assir (C) and
Salafist Sheikh Nabil Rahim (R) take part in a
protest organised by family members of Islamic
prisoners, held in a Lebanese jail, near the
Lebanese parliament in Beirut April 20, 2012. The
protest was against the prisoners' lengthy
detentions without trial and to demand their release. Photo:
Reuters
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A Lebanese Sunni Muslim gunman fires his rifle
during the funeral of Sheikh Ahmed Abdul Wahid, a
Sunni Muslim cleric, at his hometown at al-Bireh,
northern Lebanon, May 21, 2012. Lebanese soldiers
shot dead two members of an alliance against Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad in northern Lebanon on
Sunday, security sources said, in the latest
incident to raise fears Syria's turmoil was spilling
over the border into its neighbour. Photo: Reuters
May 21, 2012
Nine Lebanese were killed after days of clashes in
the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli between
long-time bitter foes, the Sunni dominated Bab al-Tabbaneh
and the Alawite Jabal Mohsen neighborhoods. Clashes
and tensions in Tripoli are not new and represent
persistent volatility in Lebanon, as well as in the
region, both in terms of politics and security.
The Sunnis of Bab al-Tabbaneh, a hotbed of Salafism,
denounce the ‘heretic’ Alawite regime of Assad and
decry his killing of their fellow Sunni-Muslims in
Syria. The tiny, yet well-armed, Alawite community
of Jabal Mohsen however, remains a steadfast
supporter of the Syrian president. With just a
single street, ironically named the Syria Street,
separating them, the current escalation highlights
not only a localized spillover of the Syrian war
into Lebanon, but the overarching problem with
Lebanon itself – the continued presence of sectarian
militias.
Fighting broke out on May 12, as Sunni-Islamists
were protesting the recent arrest of a coreligionist
by Lebanese security forces for allegedly contacting
a 'terrorist organization' in connection to events
in Syria. Then some one-hundred Salafi-men blocked
the northern and southern roads leading to the city,
with activists trying to approach the local offices
of the pro-Assad Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP).
As the army attempted to halt them, the Islamists
clashed with Lebanese security forces in the area.
An army officer was killed by a Sunni sniper’s
bullet during the ensuing firefight. Hours later,
shooting erupted between Alawites and Sunnis in the
aforementioned neighborhoods and included the use of
RPGs, machine guns, sniper fire, and mortars. The
Lebanese army attempted to calm the situation and
deployed additional troops to the area, but clashes
continued as Lebanon's army neither has the
political cover nor the monopoly over arms needed to
halt the fighting.
To further that point, in the web that is Middle
East politics, Lebanon's current government
maintains a policy of neutrality with regards to the
Syrian crisis, which might be taken as a politically
correct stance given that the PM is a prominent
Sunni from Tripoli. That said, powerful parties
within the government are largely sympathetic to
Alawite rule in Syria. The Lebanese army on the
other hand, is a national institution and not manned
by any one sect. At present, it aims first and
foremost to preserve the country’s stability by
applying measures to avoid a violent spillover of
the Syrian crisis into the country. However, the
army in its current state is not viewed as a neutral
actor and is seen by many of the country's Sunnis as
a 'co-conspirator' to maintaining the regime's
stability in Syria. Thus,www.ekurd.netdue
to the government's make-up of various pro-Syrian
parties and Hezbollah – a strategic ally of Bashar
al-Assad – such thoughts are not without merit.
With that in mind, it is estimated that hundreds of
militants belonging to the Free Syrian Army (FSA)
and other armed groups, have taken refuge in Sunni
villages throughout northern Lebanon. From there,
they carry out reconnaissance missions and launch
cross-border raids against Syrian forces. Recent
events have seen the Syrian army crossing the border
in pursuit of rebels, and cross border shootouts
have led to the killing and wounding of several
people on both sides of the border.
This prompted the government to deploy additional
troops along the border with Syria to thwart
militant activity and arms smuggling from Lebanon.
Hence, extremist Sunnis continue to view the army as
a force aiding in the suppression of Sunni rebels in
Syria. By this view, they tend to subject the army
to sectarian pressure, thereby crippling its ability
to restrict Sunni insurgent operations in Lebanon.
As a result of decades of sectarian warfare and a
country with a myriad of hostile factions, both
neighborhoods, like most areas in Lebanon, have
stockpiled their own weaponry and maintain their own
private militias. Militias may help provide communal
security, but they create the incessant possibility
of renewed fighting between rival groups. Also, the
situation highlights an ongoing reality in regard to
Lebanon's inability to obtain a monopoly over the
use of force, let alone achieving a single national
narrative.
In the end, ongoing fighting in Syria will only
continue to escalate tensions within Tripoli. But
more importantly, ongoing fighting between Alawites
and Sunnis in Tripoli increases the threat of
extensive sectarian violence in Lebanon.
Daniel Brode and Roger FarHat are Intelligence
Analysts with
Max Security Solutions, a geopolitical
risk consulting firm based in the Middle East.
A
regular contribution writers and columnists for Ekurd.net May
21, 2012
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