|
Al-Qaeda’s Rise in Syria
7.5.2012
By Daniel Brode, an Intelligence Analyst
— ekurd.net |
|
|
|
May 7, 2012
The recent wave of suicide bombings in Syria, along
with Lebanon’s seizure of a weapons-laden cargo ship
intended for Syrian rebels, underscores the
infiltration of not only Sunni-jihadist ideology
into Syria, but also weapons, tactics, and fighters
from throughout the Middle East. Those forces, along
with radical Syrian Islamists, are likely set to
intensify their attacks on both civilian and
government targets in an attempt to turn Syria,
although unlikely, into the new Iraq.
Unlike Egypt, the Syrian government proved to be far
too entrenched to be removed by civilian protests
and international pressure alone. This realization
and an increasingly brutal government crackdown
spawned an inevitable militarization of the
conflict, additionally fueled and intensified by
Sunni elements throughout the Middle East, mainly
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Libya. Although Sunni
militants are no longer able to defeat Syria's
well-armed, motivated, and efficient fighting force
in battle, they are leaning towards a strategy where
bombings and other asymmetrical attacks on
government and civilian targets alike are likely to
become the norm for the near future in Syria.
With that being said, the Syrian opposition remains
active and capable of carrying out its activities,
but unfortunately for them, the Assad government is
not going anywhere anytime soon. While many Sunni
oppositionists still yearn for greater personal and
political rights, there was a realization early on
that the situation was so that no such occurrence
was likely unless the secular and tightly-knit
Alawites were driven from power. Meanwhile, Syria
has emerged far beyond simply a struggle for
individual and political rights, but into a regional
power-struggle - pitting the Alawites and their
regional allies - against a surging Sunni-Islamist
bloc determined to return Syria to their Islamist
sphere.
Stepping back, it is important to note that Sunni
militancy and political Islam are not foreign
threats to the Alawite regime. For over four
decades, the Assad family has defended against such
threats and has conducted numerous military
operations, including the 1982 Hama Massacre, to
suppress them. In that time, the primary threat to
Alawite rule was the Muslim Brotherhood. Unlike in
1982 however, the Brotherhood has far more support
today and are on the rise throughout the region -
yet so are other and even more radical Islamist
sects.
While the opposition continues to deny any role in
the recent bombings, the sectarian context of the
crisis, which stirs tensions across borders in
tandem with rising extremism across the Muslim
world, makes such claims highly unlikely. Moreover,
a Sunni militant group, the al-Nusra Front, has
already claimed responsibility for last week’s
Damascus blast on a jihadist website, in addition to
previous suicide bombings.
Syrian Sunnis are receiving support from throughout
the Muslim world. From Chechnya to Libya, Sunnis are
determined to see the “heretical” Alawite regime
ousted and many are willing to support or implement
more militant attacks to do so. In addition, it has
been widely reported that there has been an influx
of al-Qaeda fighters from neighboring Iraq into
Syria and it is highly unlikely they came to hold
signs in protest. Rather, it is more likely that
they are bringing their holy war - one that
previously targeted Shiites, Christians, and
Americans in Iraq – to the Alawites, Hezbollah, and
Iran, in Syria.
In addition to foreign fighters, many Syrian Sunnis
have become radicalized and followers of jihadist
doctrines as well. This is indicated by overtly
Islamist names of many Free Syrian Army brigades,
their appearance, declarations, along with the
growing extremist trend throughout the region, which
has not bypassed Syria. As stated before,www.ekurd.net
political Islam has resorted to violence in Syria
before, but unlike earlier times, the truly potent
threat stems not from the Muslim Brotherhood, but
from Salafism and Wahhabism elements now inside
Syria.
Although the Brotherhood is traditionally the most
prominent Syrian-Sunni party, the more radical
Wahhabi and Salafi sects are now on the rise in
Syria. Moreover, they carry with them the capability
of unleashing an unrelenting holy war. Their rise
there and subsequent holy war in Syria, become all
the more likely given the ascension of jihadist
beliefs, promoted alongside the "Arab Spring",
throughout the Middle East.
In the end, although the opposition has failed both
peacefully and militarily to oust the Assad regime,
more radical elements within Syria and abroad are
ready to promote and implement the use of more
aggressive militant attacks within Syria. Their
likely aim is to weaken and erode the Alawite regime
in Syria in the long term, so much so, to eventually
turn the country into the next Iraq.
Daniel Brode is an Intelligence Analyst with
Max-Security Solutions (Max-Security.com), a
geopolitical risk consulting firm based in the
Middle East. He is a regular contribution writer and
columnist for Ekurd.net May 7, 2012
Copyright
© 2012 ekurd.net. All rights reserved
Top |
The opinions
expressed in this commentary are solely those of the
author
|
®
