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Iraq's unity tested by rising tensions
over oil-rich Kurdistan region
6.5.2012
By Jane Arraf - Christian Science Monitor |
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Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, center left, shakes
hands with Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani, upon
his arrival in Erbil, the capital city of Kurdistan,
April 26, 2012. Sadr visited Erbil for the first
time in a sign of solidarity with the Kurds. Photo:
Khalid Mohammed/AP
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As Iraqi Kurdistan ramps up
oil production that could soon surpass Libya's
output, Kurdish leaders have warned they may seek
independence if disputes over oil revenues,
power-sharing aren't resolved.
May 6, 2012
ERBIL-Hewlêr, Kurdistan region 'Iraq', —
In the capital of the Kurdish region, a gleaming new
international airport welcomes visitors to a part of
the country that is increasingly striking out on its
own amid mounting questions over whether a united
Iraq will survive.
Unlike Baghdad, foreign visitors landing on one of
the ever-growing number of international flights to
Erbil need no prior visa. That's just one of the
signs of autonomy in Iraqi Kurdistan, the country's
most prosperous and secure region.
Newly discovered oil has fueled the prosperity
underpinning Kurdistan's boldness. But it has also
heightened tensions with Baghdad that have simmered
for decades over land and identity. As Iraqi
Kurdistan ramps up oil production that officials say
could surpass Libya's output by 2019, Kurdish
leaders have warned they could seek full
independence if disputes over oil revenues and
power-sharing aren't resolved.
"The Kurds will not live in the shadow of a
dictatorial regime," Massoud Barzani, the powerful
president of the Kurdish region said in a speech in
Erbil Friday. "The right to decide our destiny is a
legitimate one and we ask others not to try to take
this right from us."
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, head of the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, told the Monitor in a
recent interview he believes differences between
Baghdad and Erbil can be solved.
“We can reach agreement on this,” he said, referring
to the wider issue of Iraq’s fragile coalition
government and increasingly bitter relations between
Kurdish President Barzani and Iraqi Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki. “We Iraqis had experiences many
times on the brink of civil war – we retreated from
that and we came back to dialogue and national
unity.”
Not everyone agrees with the president’s assessment,
however. Maliki's far-reaching consolidation of
power has rankled other regions and even his
political allies, with Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
recently visiting Erbil for the first time in a sign
of solidarity with the Kurds.
Southern, oil-rich regions
also pressing for more control
Nine years after Saddam Hussein was toppled, and two
decades after breaking away from Baghdad, Iraqi
Kurdistan is far more prosperous and secure than any
other part of the country. Security has been
maintained by the regional government’s strict
controls on its de facto borders, including those
ostensibly under the jurisdiction of the central
government.
Kurdish support two years ago for Maliki’s coalition
government was essential to the Shiite prime
minister retaining his post after failing to win a
majority of seats. Since then a power-sharing
agreement which included the Kurds and the major
Sunni political bloc has fallen apart with almost
none of the provisions implemented.
Because of the political wrangling, Iraq has no
interior or defense minister. Instead Maliki
effectively oversees both, as well as an increasing
number of intelligence and security services
reorganized to fall directly under his command. In a
country with some of the world’s biggest oil
reserves, a proposed oil law mandating how revenue
is shared between the provinces has never reached
Parliament for a vote.
“We have to clearly define the oil law,” says Latif
Rasheed, senior adviser to President Talabani. “Not
only regarding central authorities but regional
authorities – this is happening in Kurdistan now;
tomorrow it might happen in Basra if it’s not
clear.”
In addition to Kurdistan, other regions, including
the south – which has seen little benefit from its
vast oil reserves – have been pressing for more
control. Some local government officials in Basra
and Diyala have even raised the prospect of seeking
autonomy.
Mr. Barzani, who next to Mr. Maliki has emerged as
the most powerful politician in Iraq, has warned
that the Kurds could "resort to other decisions" if
the prime minister does not follow through on a
power-sharing agreement. Barzani's comments are
widely seen as an implied threat to seek
independence.
Legacy of Saddam's genocidal campaign
The legacy of Saddam Hussein’s military campaigns
against the Kurds in the 1970s and 1980s has
rekindled fears in Iraqi Kurdistan that a central
government with unchecked powers could again pose a
threat. That worry has been heightened by the
withdrawal of US troops that served as a buffer
between Erbil and Baghdad.
American protection in the form of a no-fly zone in
1991 created the semi-autonomous Kurdish region
after the Kurds rose up against Mr. Hussein's
weakened regime when he was driven out of Kuwait.
Deeply traumatized by Saddam’s genocidal campaign,
two decades later Kurdish leaders have raised
concerns in Washington over Iraq’s purchase of
American F-16 fighter jets.
“It’s normal for Iraq to have an army, to have
advanced weaponry but the concept of against whom
that would be used this is what worries us,” says
Falah Mustafa, the Kurdish regional government’s de
facto foreign minister. “When we have worries about
the nature of that army and the loyalty of that army
we have all the right to be afraid because planes
have been used against Kurdish people ... so our
tragic history tells us to be careful.”
Kurdish officials are adamant that they won’t seek
the breakup of Iraq but many seem prepared for the
possibility that Sunni-Shiite tension could splinter
the country on its own.
Feeding into Iraq’s sectarian tensions, Sunni vice
president Tariq al-Hashemi, wanted on terrorism
charges, was given refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan and
then allowed by the Kurdish government to leave the
country, despite a no-travel order. He is now being
tried in absentia in Baghdad.
As Kurdish political and economic power grows, ties
with the rest of Iraq weaken. Most younger Kurds
don’t speak Arabic and few feel a strong connection
to the rest of the country.
“What is not independent about Kurdistan today?”
says one Kurdish official speaking on condition of
anonymity. “The fact that we get our money from
Baghdad – that’s the only thing that’s left.”
Kurdish ties with Turkey
improve
Kurds are looking at the possibility of replacing
that revenue from an unlikely source. Opposition
from powerful Turkey has been one of the main
reasons the Kurds have not sought more autonomy. But
as Baghdad’s relations with Ankara have soured over
accusations of Turkish interference in Iraqi
affairs,www.ekurd.net
Erbil's ties with Turkey have improved dramatically.
Kurdish officials maintain they are discussing with
Turkey plans to build crude oil and natural gas
pipelines that would carry fuel directly from Iraqi
Kurdistan to the neighboring country.
Talabani, who last month hosted Baghdad’s first Arab
League summit in more than 20 years, maintains that
it would be unrealistic for Kurds to push for
independence despite calls by the younger generation
to seek it.
The older Kurdish political elite spent years as
mountain fighters followed by years in exile but
Talabani says that for all Kurds in the region
seeking control over their destiny, that era is
over.
“Armed struggle is past – now we are in a
parliamentarian struggle ... we are always telling
this to our [Kurdish] brothers in Turkey to
understand the spirit of a new era," he says. "This
is not the time of partisan war or armed struggle.
Look to the countries that use popular struggle;
even they get freedom from dictatorship from other
places, so through this kind of struggle people can
achieve their goals.”
2 million barrels per day
by 2019
The dispute over oil – potentially worth billions of
dollars as new fields come on stream in Iraqi
Kurdistan – is entangled in the wider issue of land,
towns, and cities claimed by both the Iraqi and
Kurdish governments – including the disputed city of
Kirkuk. Kurds claim oil-rich Kirkuk as their
historic capital, as do the Turkmen and other
groups. Tens of thousands of non-Arabs were expelled
from that city during Hussein’s campaign to Arabize
the country.
“There are a number of issues that have to be sorted
out – one is the disputed territories, which I think
is much more serious than the oil,” says Mr. Rasheed,
the Iraqi president’s adviser.
Oil though has become the driving force behind
Kurdish aspirations. Since Barzani turned the tap on
the first oil well in the Taq Taq field three years
ago, Kurdish officials expect production to rise to
500,000 barrels per day in the next 1-1/2 years.
They say it could reach 2 million barrels per day by
2019 – a higher output than oil producers such as
Libya.
Reflecting the rising tension, the Kurdish
government in April shut off oil exports bound for
the Iraqi government pipeline to Turkey. Foreign
companies have cut back production and are selling
the remaining fuel within Iraqi Kurdistan – a move
that contravenes long-standing agreement under which
oil revenue is distributed by Baghdad. The companies
and Kurdish authorities say it’s a necessary step to
recover their costs after months of not being paid
under existing agreements with the central
government.
For many Iraqi Kurds, the question is whether the
autonomy they have gained is enough or whether they
should aim for more and risk losing it.
“It’s a tough one for any Kurd to balance their
natural desire for any independence, which every
Kurd has deep down, even Jalal Talabani, with a
reality that puts what we have today in danger,”
says Qubad Talabani, the Kurdish government’s
representative in Washington and the president’s
son. “I think that’s what every Kurd grapples with –
what their heart tells them and what their head
tells them.”
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The Christian Science Monitor
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