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Why the talk of a no confidence vote
against Iraq’s PM Maliki remains just talk
31.5.2012
By Joel Wing —
Ekurd.net |
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May 31, 2012
News from Iraq has been filled with headlines
about a possible no confidence vote against
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. His main rival,
the Iraqi National Movement (INM) has been
talking about such a move for quite some time,
but Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani and
Moqtada al-Sadr have recently joined it. That
gave the impression that Maliki’s opponents
might have finally turned the corner, but it was
fool’s gold. The National Movement has not been
able to stick together, the Kurdish Coalition is
also divided, and the Sadrists have been more
talk than action. Iran has also tried to
reconcile some of the parties. This all shows
that Premier Maliki still has the upper hand.
The call to unseat Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
seemed to gain momentum in April 2012 as more
parties were joining the chorus for him to step
down. Maliki’s main rival the Iraqi National
Movement (INM) had been talking about a no
confidence vote against him more and more
recently. On April 27, its leader, Iyad Allawi
joined Moqtada al-Sadr, Kurdistan President
Massoud Barzani, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani,
and Speaker Osama Nujafi, who is also from the
INM, in a meeting in Erbil to discuss strategy.
Sadr’s attendance seemed like a game changer,
because he had been one of the prime minister’s
main supporters. The group came up with a 15-day
ultimatum for Maliki to follow the Erbil
Agreement, which put together the current
government, but which the prime minister has
only partially followed. Speaker Nujafi said
that this was a last chance for Maliki to share
power or suffer the consequences. Those demands
were put together in a letter sent to the
National Alliance head Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
The National Alliance is made up of the Sadrists,
the Supreme Council, the Fadhila Party, the Badr
Organization, and other smaller parties, and
joined with Maliki’s State of Law to assure him
a second term in office after the 2010
parliamentary elections. On May 19, there was
another meeting, this time in Najaf, which
included Sadr, Speaker Nujafi, Ahmed Chalabi of
the National Alliance, former prime minister of
Kurdistan Barhem Saleh, Deputy Premier Rowsch
Nouri Shaways of Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic
Party (KDP), and others. On paper, the National
Movement, Kurdish Coalition, and Sadrists had
more than half of the seats in parliament, which
could call for a no confidence vote against
Maliki. That as what led to all the press
reports. The INM has been feuding with Maliki
since before the 2010 elections even took place.
President Barzani has joined the fray in the new
year. Sadr has occasionally criticized Maliki as
well, but his attendance at the Erbil and Najaf
meetings seemed like he really meant it this
time. It appeared that the prime minister was
really in trouble, but all the press coverage
obscured just how fractious a group this was.
The major problem for Maliki’s opponents has
been that they are not united. Before the Erbil
meeting for instance, a Sadrist spokesman said
that they would not support a no confidence vote
against the premier. During the meeting they
remarked that they were not looking to replace
him, and then repeated that after the Najaf
affair. At the same time, they were discussing
possible replacements for him. These seemingly
schizophrenic statements have been typical of
the Sadr Trend for months now. The Kurdish
Coalition was also divided, with President
Barzani saying that he was done with Maliki,
while President Talabani has called him a
partner. Officials from their two parties have
also been snipping at each other behind the
scenes. The National Movement has barely stuck
together since the March 2010 election. There
were reports that 20 to 30 parliamentarians from
the list were ready to leave, because they were
disillusioned with their leadership.
Many lawmakers from northern provinces like
Ninewa, Tamim, and Diyala that have disputed
territories were upset that Allawi and others
might be making deals with the Kurds, who they
ran against, in order to facilitate their
opposition to Maliki. Some members of parliament
from the INM even issued a statement on May 20
that they stood by Maliki for his stance towards
the Kurds. One legislator claimed that only
around 20 from the list, which is less than a
third of its total,www.ekurd.net
would support a no confidence vote. Altogether
that meant while the prime minister’s opponents
might have more than half of the seats in
parliament, in reality they had far less. The
futility of the situation was apparent to some.
Deputy Speaker of Parliament Aref Tayfour from
the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) for
instance was quoted in the press saying that the
parties would probably decide to keep Maliki in
office until the next elections in 2014. Another
member of the Kurdish Coalition remarked that
his list hadn’t even decided to support a no
confidence vote or not, and said that the
Supreme Council, the Fadhila Party, the Badr
Organization, parts of the Iraqi National
Movement from the north, President Talabani and
his Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), Free
Iraqiya, and the White bloc all supported the
premier. That meant Maliki was facing no real
threat despite all the talk and news stories.
His opposition has been big in rhetoric, but has
never been able to present a united front. They
make grand announcements, make plenty of
demands, hold meeting after meeting, but they do
not have any power to apply real pressure on the
prime minister to make him change.
The weakness of the opposition was shown in the
response, or lack thereof of Maliki’s
supporters. The Erbil letter was addressed to
the National Alliance (NA). The Sadrists said
that since the NA nominated Maliki back in 2010,
it was up to it to replace him. The Alliance,
with the exception of Sadr’s followers, however,
has stood by Maliki. When the 15-day deadline
set in the Erbil meeting expired, the NA didn’t
reply. On May 23, it held a conference, but no
decision was made about the premier. Those were
all signs that Maliki’s opponents were not being
successful in their strategy. The National
Alliance was obviously feeling no pressure,
which was why they let the ultimatum pass. With
the opposition lacking the votes to move against
Maliki there was no reason for the list to make
a decision on him.
Iran has also come to the aid of the prime
minister. Several Iranian officials have visited
Baghdad and Erbil recently. Allegedly, they
asked the Kurds to give Maliki another chance,
and told the premier to compromise with them.
Maliki also travelled to Iran and met with Sadr
there. The two signed a letter of understanding,
which was supposed to reconcile the two. Neither
initiative worked, but it shows that Iraq’s
longstanding political crisis is bringing in its
neighbors into the fray. Iran’s strategy in Iraq
is for it to be like a big brother, which Iraq
turns to when it runs into problems. Before the
2010 elections for example, it helped push the
Sadrists and Supreme Council together into the
National Alliance, but failed to get Maliki to
join it in a grand Shiite coalition. It was also
thought to have played a hand in the
deBaathification controversy that led to the
banning of hundreds of Sunni politicians, which
occurred prior to the voting. After the vote, it
worked to block INM head Iyad Allawi becoming
premier, by pushing Maliki’s State of Law and
the National Alliance to join together as the
National Coalition to keep the prime minister in
office. Tehran has continued to play this role
in Iraqi politics throughout the current crisis
by consulting with Iraqi politicians, and trying
to mediate some of the disputes.
The news out of Iraq continues to be dominated
by reports about the differences between the
country’s political parties. While there is much
talk about unseating Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,
the reality is that he is comfortably holding
onto power. Despite more leaders joining the
chorus criticizing his rule, his opponents
remain deeply divided, and lack the seats in
parliament to do anything about him. These
disputes are far from over however, and will
drag on until the 2014 parliamentary elections.
That will mean that the government will be
deadlocked, with little to no major legislation
being passed for the foreseeable future as
neither side will be willing to compromise with
the other. This is a perfect example of the zero
sum game that debilitates Iraqi politics. As
long as Iraq’s lists are caught up in this
battle over the prime minister they will not be
doing much else in terms of governing the
country, which means the public is the one
really paying the price.
SOURCES
Abdul Raman, Muahmad, “Talabani wants Maliki to
stay, say sources,” AK News, 5/13/12
Abdulla, Mufid, “Cracks appear in the PUK-KDP
strategic relationship,” Kurdistan Tribune,
4/28/12
Ahmed, Hevidar, “Kurdish Leaders Struggle to
Remain United in Dealing with Baghdad,” Rudaw,
5/18/12
- “Maliki Given Ultimatum at Leaders Meeting in
Erbil,” Rudaw, 4/29/12
AIN, “Araji: Attendants of Najaf meeting not to
discuss withdrawing confidence from Maliki,”
5/19/12
Ali, Omar, “Kurdistan Blocs Coalition yet to
demand withdrawing confidence from PM,” AK News,
5/27/12
Alsabawi, Jasim, “Sadr Movement Claims No
Ulterior Motive to Leader’s Erbil Visit,” Rudaw,
5/9/12
Aswat al-Iraq, “Barzani convinced impossible to
deal with Maliki, Kurdish government official,”
5/16/12
- “Iran’s presence in Iraq relies on NC’s
existence – Shiite source,” 7/17/10
- “National Alliance supports Maliki’s govt. and
NC, MP,” 5/15/12
- “No support for Nujaifi’s demotion – MP,”
5/25/12
- “Six Sadrist nominees if Maliki’s trust
withdrawn, Sadrist Trend,” 5/6/12
Brosk, Raman, “Maliki’s avoidance of Erbil
agreements will force blocs to withdraw
confidence, says Iraqiya,” AK News, 4/25/12
- “National Alliance doesn’t need to implement
all Erbil meeting demands within 15 days, says
Ahrar leader,” AK News, 5/14/12
- “National Alliance won’t accept replacing
Maliki, says MP,” AK News, 5/22/12
- “PM Maliki given two weeks to implement Erbil
agreement,” AK News, 5/5/12
- “Political crisis might be resolved at today’s
meeting, says Islamic Supreme Council,” AK News,
5/26/12
- “SLC MP: Four NA components support Maliki,”
AK News, 5/25/12
Hussein, Adnan, “Will Barzani “Checkmate” Maliki?”
Rudaw, 4/29/12
Ibrahim, Haidar, “President Barzani’s talks with
leaders to last 10 more days,” AK News, 4/28/12
Jakes, Lara, “Iraq leaders call for solution to
political crisis,” Associated Press, 4/28/12
Katulis, Brian, “An Iraqi View On Iraq’s Recent
Elections,” Wonk Room, 4/19/10
Khallat, Khudar, “National Alliance didn’t
discuss searching for Maliki replacement, says
State of Law Coalition,” AK News, 5/23/12
Al-Mada, “Out more than 20 deputies of the Iraqi
and the mass of “al-Mutlaq,” may join the
dissidents,” 5/8/12
MEMRI Blog, “Iraq Votes – Part XI,” 3/29/10
Mohammed, Fryad, “Official: Three major blocs to
discuss retaining Maliki tomorrow,” AK News,
5/22/12
Myers, Steven Lee, “Unity Is Rallying Cry Ahead
of Iraq Elections,” New York Times, 10/1/09
National Iraqi News Agency, “Sadr’s visit to
Arbil will not discuss the withdrawal of
confidence from Maliki,” 4/26/12
- “SLC absent from leaders of blocs at Sadr’s
house in Najaf,” 5/19/12
Qanon, “Iraq published a list of retreating ..
Fragmentation and rupture splits the Iraqi
List,” 5/9/12
Shadid, Anthony, “In Sign of Times, Alliances
Shift Ahead of Iraqi Elections,” Washington
Post, 9/30/09
Tohme, Abdul Wahid, “Expect new splits in the
Allawi bloc,” Dar Al Hayat, 5/19/12
Visser, Reidar, “Iraqiya, the Kurds & Disputed
Territories in Iraq: The Grassroots Reaction,”
Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 5/21/12
Zahra, Hassan Abdul, “Sadr ‘against’ fall of
current Iraqi government,” Agence France Presse,
4/27/12
Joel Wing, with an MA in International Relations,
Joel Wing has been researching and writing about
Iraq since 2002. His acclaimed blog, Musings on
Iraq, is currently listed by the New York Times and
the World Politics Review. In addition, Mr. Wing’s
work has been cited by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, the Guardian and the
Washington Independent. You may visit his Blog
Musings On Iraq at musingsoniraq.blogspot.com
Copyright © 2012 ekurd.net
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