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National Conference To Resolve Iraq’s
Political Disputes Dies A Slow Death
26.4.2012
By Joel Wing — ekurd.net |
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Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki (L) with Kurdistan
president Massoud Barzani, Erbil, Kurdistan region
of Iraq. August 8, 2010. photo KRP.
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March
26, 2012
In December 2011, the Kurds came up with the
idea of a national conference to be attended by
all of Iraq’s ruling parties to resolve the
country’s political problems. These disputes
have been going on since the March 2010
elections, and have only gotten worse since then
with various provinces calling for autonomy, a
wave of detentions of alleged Baathists, an
arrest warrant for Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi,
and an attempt to unseat Deputy Premier Saleh
al-Mutlaq, amongst other events. Within days
however, the idea of actually pulling off a
meaningful meeting seemed dim, and has only
gotten worse with the passage of time. With
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki continually
outplaying his rivals the Iraqi National
Movement there is no reason for him to
compromise, meaning there is little chance for a
substantive meeting to happen.
In April 2012, the realization that a meaningful
national conference could be pulled off was
apparent to all the major parties in Iraq. On
April 23, the Iraqi National Movement (INM)
announced that it would not attend the
preparatory meetings for the conference on the
grounds that it would be a waste of time. The
lists could not agree upon an agenda, so the
meetings were going nowhere.
The Kurds held the same view with
Parliamentarian Mahmoud Othman telling the press
that it wasn’t a good time to hold the
conference due to the lack of consensus, and
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President
Massoud Barzani questioning whether the
conference could achieve anything even if it was
ever held. Barzani blamed Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki for the impasse. He was correct. Since
the March 2010 parliamentary elections, the
premier has been able to consistently out
maneuver his rivals in the INM. He got a second
term in office, while his competitor for prime
minister Iyad Allawi was shut out of government.
He was able to split the National Movement
during its boycott of the cabinet that started
in December 2011, and has been able to put off
almost all of the Kurdish demands like
resolution of the disputed territories and a new
oil law. Being in such a strong position means
that there is no reason for the premier to
compromise with any of the other parties, let
alone hold the national conference.
The idea for a national conference originated
with the Kurds in December 2011. President Jalal
Talabani and KRG President Barzani originally
made the suggestion during the latest blow up
between the INM and Maliki’s State of Law. At
the time, Maliki was attempting to remove Deputy
Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq from office, and an
arrest warrant had been issued for Vice
President Tareq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges,
and he had fled to Kurdistan as a result. The
two Kurdish leaders had been trying to mediate
the crisis, and came up with the idea of a
gathering of all of Iraq’s parties as a way to
solve the latest problem. The INM was the first
to support the idea, saying that all of the
national leaders should attend as well such as
President Barzani, Moqtada al-Sadr, and Ammar
al-Hakim from the Supreme Council. It also
demanded a set of principals be developed
beforehand. The conference was originally
supposed to happen in January 2012, but it never
did. That’s because the negotiations over the
meeting have been just as contested as
everything else in Iraqi politics. The various
parties have made demand after demand of each
other, traded accusations, which has led to
deadlock, a problem the conference was supposed
to solve.
There are various examples of why the conference
has not happened so far. The INM for one, has
flip flopped on some issues, and made impossible
demands at other times. One lawmaker from the
list said in January that the Hashemi case would
not be included, only to have another member
demand that it should be in February. The list
then called for an end to random arrests,www.ekurd.net
the cessation of tensions in Diyala where the
provincial council was under siege for
attempting to declare itself an autonomous
region, and the removal of security forces from
outside the homes of the party’s leaders. The
conference was supposed to be a place where
these issues would be brought up and discussed,
but the INM was trying to get parts of its
agenda fulfilled before it even occurred when
there was absolutely no reason for the prime
minister to do so. Then President Barzani began
calling for the meeting to occur in Kurdistan,
nominally so that Vice President Hashemi could
attend since he was residing there and wanted in
the rest of the country. Allawi threw his
support behind the change in location, but
again, Maliki would not agree and there was
nothing the INM nor Kurdish Coalition could do
about it since the meeting would be meaningless
without the prime minister. Around the same
time, Moqtada al-Sadr said he would not attend,
because he was not a politician, again putting a
damper on things.
The only positive event to come out of the new
year was Maliki and Speaker Osama Nujafi who is
from the National Movement agreeing upon
creating a joint committee of all the leading
parties that would go over the issues before the
national conference occurred, and try to set the
agenda. These initial moves were signs that the
meeting would never come off, and if it did,
nothing substantive would come of it. The INM
has a bad tendency to overplay or mishandle its
strategies. Hence its indecision over whether to
include Hashemi or not, and making numerous
demands be met before the conference was to even
happen although they had absolutely no leverage
to gain any of them. The Kurds proved little
better, because while they were attempting to be
honest brokers they too could not convince
Maliki to come to the negotiating table in good
faith, and trying to get the venue changed from
Baghdad to Kurdistan perhaps in the hopes that
it would be a neutral location never got off the
ground. Maliki was in a position of power being
the prime minister, and had no reason to
compromise on any of these issues.
With January having come and gone, the
conference was then pushed back to after the
Arab Summit held in Iraq in March, but that
didn’t mean there was any more likelihood that
it would be pulled off. There were some demands
that the meeting happen before the Arab League
came to Baghdad, but again the prime minister
was not willing to talk to the other parties
when he was more concerned about showcasing the
new Iraq to regional leaders and diplomats as
they travelled to the country. President
Talabani then suggested April 5 as a new date.
By the time April had rolled around, there had
been several planning committee meetings, but
nothing had been achieved. Allawi and Barzani
said they would not attend as a result, and
eventually the INM stated it would no longer go
to the planning sessions, because the conference
would not mean anything. Again, Maliki played
his hand well, while the others did not. He
could sit back and remain prime minister, while
the various parties argued about the details of
the national conference. A three-month delay
from its original date of January was sign
enough that he could wait them out even more.
The national conference seemed a pipedream from
the get go. Prime Minister Maliki was able to
get the Kurds’ backing for his second term, and
the National Movement to join his coalition
while leaving out Allawi. From that moment on he
has been in the drivers’ seat, and shows no sign
of relinquishing it to the other lists. They can
call for a meeting of all the parties, make
various demands about what will be included, but
there’s no reason for Maliki to comply. He can
send his State of Law members to every meeting,
and hear every complaint and argument, and drag
out the process for months. All the while, he
will remain in power. As long as the Sadrist,
Supreme Council, and Badr Organization led
National Alliance stands behind the premier
there are not enough seats in parliament to
threaten Maliki with a no confidence vote. If
that coalition of Shiite parties stands
together, and the Sadrists and Badr have been
some of the prime minister’s strongest
supporters, he can stave off any attempts by the
Kurdish Coalition or the Iraqi National Movement
to negotiate with them. In the meantime, talk of
a national conference will likely drag on for
several more months. One might even happen
eventually. Maliki’s position will not change
however, because he’s holding all the cards.
SOURCES
Ahmed, Hevidar, “National Convention to Be
Boycotted By Major Players,” Rudaw, 4/3/12
AIN, “Breaking News….Allawi, Barzani agree to
hold national meeting before Summit,” 3/13/12
- “IS adheres to forming Policies Council, says
MP,” 2/4/12
AK News, “National Conference – route to
solutions,” 12/19/11
Ali, Mandy Samira, “Signs of easing in the Iraqi
political crisis,” Radio Free Iraq, 1/6/12
Ali, Omer, “President Talabani selects date for
national conference,” AK News, 3/26/12
Alsumaria, “Sayyed Muqtada Al Sadr refuses to
participate in Iraq National Conference,”
1/27/12
Aswat al-Iraq, “Article 140, oil and gas law are
in our demands – Kurdish MP,” 2/11/12
- “Barzani will not participate if national
conference held in Baghdad – Kurdish Presidency
Divan,” 1/10/11
- “Al-Iraqiya to make new alliances – says MP,”
4/9/12
- “National Alliance threatens to boycott
national conference,” 2/17/12
- “National conference expected mid of this
month – MP,” 1/4/12
- “Nat’l Conference Agenda completed,” 2/20/12
Brusk, Raman, “Leaders won’t discuss Hashemi’s
issue in meeting,” AK News, 1/1/12
Hussein, Adnan, “Iraqi Parties Submit Proposals
for National Convention,” Rudaw, 2/16/12
Ibrahim, Haider, “SLC will accept Talabani’s
invitation to hold national conference, says
aide,” AK News, 4/15/12
Mohammed, Fryad, “NC-Iraqiya tensions render
meeting unlikely,” AK News, 1/4/12
National Iraqi News Agency, “BREAKING NEWS
Jumaily announces Preparatory Meeting failure in
setting date for the National Meeting,” 4/4/12
- “Iraqiya calls for stopping random arrests,
ending armed manifestations, create suitable
environment to make National Conference
successful,” 1/12/12
- “Iraqiya slate says it will not deal with the
invitation to it on the Preparatory Committee’s
meeting for the National Meeting,” 4/23/12
- “IS calls for a set of principles before
holding the national conference,” 12/28/11
- “Mahmoud Othman conditions inconvenient to
hold the National Meeting,” 4/25/12
- “Parliamentary source unveils reasons for IS
approval of not including Hashimi’s, Mutlag’s
cases in the national Conference,” 2/12/12
Rasheed, Ahmed and Chaudhry, Serena, “Boycott,
walkout mar Iraq parliament session,” Reuters,
1/3/12
Rudaw, “Massoud Barzani: Dictatorship Threatens
Iraq’s Territorial Integrity,” 4/23/12
Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Iraq’s Sunni-backed bloc to
end parliament boycott,” Reuters, 1/29/12
Al-Shemmari, Yazn, “Sadrists reject holding the
national conference outside Baghdad,” AK News,
1/11/12
- “VP Hashemi’s movement to boycott national
conference,” AK News, 4/4/12
Yusif, Mortedha, “Government calls for crisis
meeting,” AK News, 12/21/11
- “No talks without Barzani and Sadr, says
Allawi,” AK News, 12/28/11
Joel Wing, with an MA in International Relations,
Joel Wing has been researching and writing about
Iraq since 2002. His acclaimed blog, Musings on
Iraq, is currently listed by the New York Times and
the World Politics Review. In addition, Mr. Wing’s
work has been cited by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, the Guardian and the
Washington Independent. You may visit his Blog
Musings On Iraq at musingsoniraq.blogspot.com
Copyright © 2012 ekurd.net
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