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Kurdistan's Barzani suggests Iraq might
use F-16s against Kurds
9.4.2012 |
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Iraq's Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani.
April 9, 2012
EXETER, England, — After increased
tensions between the Iraqi and the Kurdish
governments, Kurdistan Region President Massoud
Barzani told Alhurra TV last Thursday that Baghdad
is considering the use of F-16 fighter planes
against the Kurds.
In the interview, Barzani says the issue with Iraqi
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not personal, but
it is about his dictatorial policies. "I still
consider him a brother and a friend," he said.
According to Barzani, division commanders in the
Iraqi army are supposed to be approved by
parliament, but this hasn't happened.
Barzani told Alhurra that he has confronted the
Iraqi PM many times and been told by Maliki that he
will act, but he hasn’t, and suggested there is talk
of a “military solution” to confront the Kurds in
Baghdad. Barzani said that in an official meeting
with Iraqi military commanders, it was stated that
they should wait for F-16s to arrive to help push
back the Kurds.
Alhurra asked Barzani if PM Maliki was the person
suggesting the use of F-16s against the Kurds, but
Barzani did not answer the question. “I know who
said it, but forgive me, I can't give more details,"
he said, adding that Kurds are becoming strangers in
the Iraqi army, and are being fought from within.
Barzani emphasized that there can never be a
military solution to deal with the Kurds.
Kurdish officials had earlier expressed worries over
Iraq’s estimated $3 billion deal to buy 18 fighter
jets from the United States, and the marginalization
of Kurds within the Iraqi army, despite the fact
that both the Iraqi chief of staff and the air force
commander are Kurds.
Iraqi Kurds fear a repeat of the mass killings by
the Iraqi regime. In the 1980s, the Iraqi army
killed between 50,000 and 180,000 Kurds in the
notorious Anfal campaign. But Iraqi officials have
tried to reassure Kurds that the F-16s are meant to
protect the borders of Iraq.
On the April 4, Izzat al-Shahbandar, member of
Maliki’s State of Law Coalition, claimed on Al-Jazeera
that the Kurds were trying to weaken the government
and deprive them of heavy weapons. “There is a
Kurdish effort to prevent a strong Iraqi state in
terms of weapons, funds and Arab relations. We were
deprived of our right to write in the constitution
that Iraq is an Arab country."
Kamran Karadaghi, former chief of staff of Iraqi
President Jalal Talabani, told Rudaw that it remains
a possibility that Baghdad will use the Iraqi army
against the Kurds. “To my knowledge, Barzani's
comments are based on solid information straight
from the horse's mouth. Why do you think Shia rulers
turned from committed federalists to staunch
centralists? I always warned that we should expect
that when they have a strong army. Soon they will
have F-16s.”
But other analysts rule out the possible use of
F-16s against Kurds. Reidar Visser, research fellow
at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs,
known for his frequent commentary on Iraqi affairs,
suggests that, “The only scenario in which the use
of military force by Baghdad would be probable is in
the case of a formal, unilateral annexation of
Kirkuk by the Kurds.”
He added that, when Barzani mentioned the F-16s, “It
sounded more like fully fledged warfare than
skirmishes and clashes. There can be similar
episodes to Khanaqin, etc., absolutely. But I think
they will stay within certain boundaries unless the
KRG moves to formally annex areas.”
In 2008, the disputed city of Khanaqin was the
center of a face-off between Kurdish and Iraqi armed
forces. According to the Christian Science Monitor,www.ekurd.net
there was threat of a much wider conflict along the
300-mile fault line that divides the Kurds from the
Arab parts of Iraq. In the past, U.S. forces
established joint patrols and acted as peacemakers
to prevent tensions from erupting in territories
claimed by Baghdad and Erbil, but now the U.S. army
isn’t in Iraq.
In November 2011, the handover of the Kirkuk airport
to Iraqi authorities by U.S. forces sparked tensions
between local Kurdish authorities and the Iraqi army
over who should control it. Eventually, the Iraqi PM
turned it into a civilian airport rather than one
controlled by the Iraqi army. After the decision,
there have been no tensions in Kirkuk between
Kurdish and Iraqi security forces.
Hayder al-Khoei, a researcher at the London-based
Centre for Academic Shi'a Studies, agrees that
renewed tensions in the disputed areas are possible.
“Some minor skirmishes possibly and maybe a few
Mexican standoffs that go wrong. But no major
military clashes. It's far too costly for both sides
and eventually they will sit down in secret and
negotiate a new division of the cake.”
He added that it is “nonsense” to consider that
Baghdad would use F-16s against the Kurds. “Turkey
has far more advanced fighter jets than Iraq could
hope to have and cannot solve the PKK problem with
military power. Even if the threat of pushing back
the Kurds with F-16s was meant in the context of
deploying gunboat diplomacy, it is highly unlikely
the Kurds will be intimidated.”
Ben van Heuvelen, managing editor of Iraq Oil
Report, based in Iraq, says the long-standing
disputes between Kurdistan and Baghdad escalated
into a full-blown crisis last week amidst the
postponement of the national conference meant to
reconcile the factions. “It began when the Kurds
shut off oil exports. Then, Shahristani threatened
to make cuts to Kurdistan's share of the federal
budget.”
Van Heuvelen thinks Barzani’s statement has to do
with his recent visit to the United States to
request they form a “special partnership” with the
Kurds. “The Obama administration's response seems to
have been, ‘We support you, but within the context
of a unified, federal Iraq.’ In other words, the
U.S. seems to have rebuffed Barzani's request and
reaffirmed its support of Maliki,” van Heuvelen
added.
The American journalist thinks Barzani wants to send
a message to Washington. “When Barzani talks about a
'military solution' from Baghdad, I read those
statements as a message to Washington. I think he is
warning the Obama administration that they can't
give Maliki a carte blanche, otherwise it will
endanger the Kurds.”
By Wladimir van Wilgenburg
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