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Britain's Ambassador to Syria says Assad
regime to collapse by year's end
10.3.2012
Asharq Al-Awsat |
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March 10, 2012
LONDON, — In an exclusive interview with
Asharq Al-Awsat, British Ambassador to Syria, Simon
Collis, revealed his views on the Syrian crisis, the
latest developments on the ground, and scenarios for
the collapse of the al-Assad regime. Collis, who was
recently recalled to London, after Britain took the
decision to close its embassy in Syria due to the
deteriorating security situation in the country, has
been an outspoken critic of the al-Assad regime. He
was appointed British ambassador to Syria in 2007,
having previously held diplomatic posts in Bahrain,
Tunisia, India, Jordan, and Dubai. He previously
served as British ambassador to Qatar between 2005
and 2007.
The following is the full text of the interview:
Q: Syrian Deputy
Oil Minister Abdo Hussameddin announced his
defection from the al-Assad regime on Thursday, how
importance is this defection? Do you expect more
Syrian officials to defect from the Damascus regime?
Collis: This is
possible, and I believe this [defection] is
important as an indicator of the course that events
are heading in. There are honest people who are hold
positions within this government and regime who feel
ashamed of the actions taken by this regime against
its own people and who are no longer willing to be
considered associated with this, even indirectly.
Nobody considers the deputy oil minister to be part
of the [al-Assad] killing machine, even indirectly;
however he was part of the government. Therefore it
is clear that he is someone who listened to his
conscience and his heart and decided that the time
had come, despite the dangers to his family, to take
the decision [to defect], and I believe that this is
something that we must respect and welcome.
As for whether this will lead to other defections,
we must wait and see. He is the most senior
defector, but he is not the first. As we see, things
are developing, and I think yes, we can expect more
people to take such steps. I think there are many
others who must share his feelings but do not find
themselves able to take action out of fear. However
when fear retreats or the pressures of these events
that cannot be accepted intensify, this is when we
can expect others to take this courageous step.
Q: When you were
in Damascus you were in contact with people in the
government as well as members of the Syrian
opposition. Did you ever feel that Syrian officials
wanted to defect but were afraid to take this step?
Collis: Yes, I
spoke to former ministers in the previous government
which was dissolved last year, and some of these
figures are respectable figures who took up
positions due to their experience as technocrats,
and not necessarily because they were Baathists.
When speaking to them, it was clear they did not
want to be linked to a regime that suppresses its
own people, detaining, killing and torturing
civilians. This government was dissolved, so they
did not resign. However there are other high-ranking
ministers who know that this regime no longer
represents a way forward. Perhaps in the past they
believed they…were playing a role in developing the
country, however they have discovered that this is
not possible under the current leadership.
Q: What options
are on the table for Syria? Some people believe it
will be possible to reach a deal with al-Assad like
that enacted in Yemen, ensuring a safe exit for the
Syrian present in return for him handing over power,
whereas others believe that only a military solution
is possible. Is there a third option?
Collis: I
believe there is interaction between the military
option and the political option, however what is
happening on the ground will, of course, influence
the chances of a political solution. In the end, the
solution must be a political one; any crisis such as
this can only be solved through a political
framework. The question is how to create the
conditions for this political framework. When
Britain was working with France and the US last year
to encourage the [Syrian] regime to work towards
transition of power based upon negotiations, we were
clear that the problem that must be resolved was a
Syrian – Syrian problem, not a Syrian – Western one.
We felt it was necessary to take certain steps to
make sure that a political solution was possible [in
Syria], such as [the regime] freeing political
detainees, ending the killing, mass arrests, and
torture, and allowing opposition figures to freely
meet and organize their operations as well as
allowing the media freedom and accepting the
continuation of peaceful protests. These were all
proposals we put forward. We explained that so long
as security operations were ongoing,www.ekurd.net
we did not believe it would be possible to make
progress in the political process, for it is not
possible to reconcile the two tracks. When we look
at what Turkey tried to achieve after last Ramadan,
this was based on the same thinking, and it met with
the same results, as the regime completely ignored
this. After this, there was the Arab League
initiative which essentially put forward the same
thing. Until now, these same issues are on the
table, which were defined by the Arab League
initiative, which includes the withdrawal of all
heavy weaponry, the release of detainees, and
allowing journalists to enter [into Syria]. These
are the issues – not the conditions – that will
determine the political process. However the regime
has not shown any signs of good faith with regards
to any of these plans, with the exception of the
Arab initiative which the Syrian government signed
but ultimately failed to implement any of its terms.
If the regime does not change its behavior, it is
difficult to know how we will reach a political
solution, however this must remain our political
objective.
Q: Former UN
Secretary-General Kofi Anan is heading to Damascus,
with the same issues and problems and Syrian
intransigence. Do you have any hope that his visit
will be successful or have any concrete results?
Collis: We must
wait and see, we welcome his appointment [as UN and
Arab League special envoy to Syria] and we support
his visit. He has been appointed jointly by the UN
and the Arab League, and this is important. The task
which he has been entrusted includes working to
implement the Arab League initiative that the Syrian
government itself signed. What is required for the
Syrian government to do is implement what they have
repeatedly said they are prepared to do, but which
until now they have failed to do. As for ourselves
and our partners, we will do what we can to help,
which includes increasing pressure on the [al-Assad]
regime, increasing its political and economic
isolation, as well as working to ensure
accountability, which is important. It is necessary
that the Syrian army and security leadership and
officers who are carrying out the orders of the
Syrian leadership understand now – not in a few
years’ time – that they will be held accountable for
what they are doing today.
Q: However there
is a general awareness that the decision to transfer
the Syrian file to the International Criminal Court
[ICC] requires a resolution from the UN Security
Council, which is unlikely thanks to the Russian and
Chinese veto. In this case, do you think this threat
will truly serve as a deterrent to the Syrian
regime’s forces? Isn’t it true that many of the al-Assad
regime loyalists are of the view that they are
facing a “kill or be killed” scenario?
Collis: Yes…we
are working with the Syrians and Arab organizations
to ensure that lawyers meet with victims of violence
and suppression and document their evidence and
testimonies so that this is ready, whether this is
for the ICC or another judicial organization, it
could even be for the Syrian courts themselves in
the future. However we must work to undermine this
confidence of the Syrian leadership that does not
think it will be held accountable. In addition, it
is essential that the international community and
the Syrian opposition send a message that the
situation is not necessarily as it seems, that the
choice is not kill or be killed. It is important
that the Syrian opposition clarifies that its vision
for the future of Syria has a place for all Syrians,
regardless of background and sectarian factors.
Q: What about
political background?
Collis: One of
the most difficult things for any country or people
to do is to draw up a transitional plan, but this
transition is necessary and will include people from
every party, including members of the [Syrian] armed
and security forces. It will be important to find a
space for them in a new democratic state that is
committed to the law. It will not be easy, but Syria
is not the first country to face these challenges;
many countries have faced similar challenges, and
some have been more successful than others in
reaching a peaceful path, most prominently South
Africa.
Q: Let’s talk
about Russia. Moscow has announced its refusal to
change its position on Syria. How can we reach an
agreement with Russia to pressure the al-Assad
regime to stop the violence?
Collis: We must
look at China and Russia. Following the second veto
at the UN Security Council, I spoke to senior
Chinese officials and my attention was drawn to the
fact that China has only used its veto 8 times since
it joined the Security Council, 6 times on issues
related to Taiwan, which is something that everybody
recognizes is a red-line for Beijing, and now it is
has used this veto twice on Syria. I do not think
they are keen to continue this approach. I do not
think there is any reason for the al-Assad regime to
think it has a blank check from China, which is a
permanent member of the Security Council and which
has numerous interests in the region, including
regional stability. In spite of their position on
foreign intervention in domestic issues, they also
have important economic interests in the region, and
they must take into account whether China’s national
interests are served by supporting a regime that is
doomed to failure, at the expense of their relations
with many countries in the region and the wider
international arena.
As for Russia, following the second veto the Foreign
Secretary [William Hague] clarified that we will
remain in contact with Russia on this issue. If they
continue to support a regime that is carrying out
crimes in their own country, they will do this under
an intense media and diplomatic spotlight, and we
will talk publicly about what they are doing and the
results of their actions. They are now in a very
awkward position; for it is embarrassing to defend
actions that are indefensible. However at the same
time, we will continue to talk with them and stay in
touch with them. Perhaps the draft resolutions about
the humanitarian situation in Syria which is
presently being discussed in New York [by the
Security Council] may be an opportunity for
cooperation. We are cooperating with the Russians
wherever we can at the Security Council, and if we
felt that we had reached the limit of this
cooperation we can work outside the Security Council
via groups such as the Friends of Syria group and
with countries with similar positions to our own.
Q: In your own
opinion, what is the point of no return that would
signal the end of the Syrian regime? To what extent
will economic factors play in this process?
Collis: I think
that it is impossible to know when we will reach the
point of no return, but we are now witnessing a
decline in the support for the regime as a result of
the increasing number of people – like the former
Syrian deputy oil minister – who understand that
there is no future for Syria or themselves and their
families so long as this regime remains in power.
This decline in support will mean that the Syrian
regime has become increasingly fragile and may
collapse at any time.
The same thing is happening now amongst the [Syrian]
businessmen; they are now aware that there is no
future for themselves, their families or their
companies and businesses under this regime. They may
not feel that they can move at the present time, but
if they see the opportune moment, this may happen
quickly.
Q: Do you think
the collapse of the al-Assad regime will happen
anytime soon?
Collis: This is
possible, but nobody knows. I have publicly stated
that I doubt this situation can continue beyond the
current year; perhaps it can continue beyond this,
however I personally doubt it. The question is not
will the regime collapse, but when. This is
something I am sure of.
As for the economy, we are seeing increasing
pressure [on the government]; the people cannot
afford to heat their homes or fuel their cars. The
official cost of substances that are subsidized by
the government have increased, whilst due to
corruption the original cost of such goods has also
increased. Inflation is on the rise, and the Syrian
pound is losing its value. The [Syrian] economy is
collapsing, and it is collapsing due to the actions
of this regime. It cannot carry out such major
security operations across the country and expect
the economy to continue as normal. Tourism has
collapsed whilst investment has stopped; in addition
to this consumer confidence has declined, as has
trade with neighboring countries…the sanctions have
also had an effect on this.
Q: Do you think
the Syrian economy will collapse before the end of
the year?
Collis: I
believe that the continued collapse of the economy
clearly demonstrates, to the Syrian people, the
results of the actions of this regime. The regime
has caused this situation, and it cannot resolve it.
Q: You therefore
believe that the collapse of the al-Assad regime
will be from within, not as a result of foreign
intervention?
Collis: Yes…I
believe this is what will happen, and I believe this
is what must happen.
Q: You do not
believe there should be a military solution, or
foreign intervention in Syria?
Collis: No, we –
and other countries – will work to isolate the
regime and to maximize our support of the
opposition, but we will not arm the opposition. I
think that the Syrian people will gain their freedom
by their own efforts, as has occurred in other
countries in the Arab world.
By Mina Al-Oraibi
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