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Feud between Turkey and Iraq is all
Syria’s fault: Relationship issues
10.2.2012
By Hoshnag Ose - Niqash
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Despite improving relations and rising trade between
their two countries in recent years, the rhetoric
between Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki (R) and
his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has
become heated in recent weeks . See Related Links
February
10, 2012
ANKARA/BAGHDAD, — Over the past weeks,
the warm relationship between Iraq and Turkey has
soured, with the two PMs in a war of words about
Baghdad’s political crisis. However the real reasons
may have more to do with Syria. And Iran.
Last month there was what was described as a “war of
words” between the leaders of Iraq and Turkey in the
local and international media.
The conflict began with the issuing of an arrest
warrant against one of Iraq’s vice presidents, Tariq
al-Hashimi, who is also a leading member of the
opposition party Iraqiya. Currently the Iraqi
government is led by Nouri al-Maliki, head of the
State of Law bloc, which is Shiite Muslim dominated.
Iraqiya, which is Sunni Muslim dominated, are the
main opposition party. Iraqiya also have close ties
to the Turkish government.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan then
gave a speech in Turkish Parliament, which was
televised, in which he said that his country would
not stand by idly if Baghdad was intending on
causing sectarian strife.
"Maliki should know that: if you start a conflict in
Iraq in the form of sectarian clashes, it will be
impossible for us to remain silent," Erdogan said.
"Those who stand by with folded arms watching
brothers massacre each other are accomplices to
murder."
Al-Maliki was quick to respond. In a statement, he
said that, “Erdogan has provoked all Iraqis with his
comments … Sunni and Shiite Iraqis are brothers and
do not need anyone claiming to defend them against
each other.”
Other examples of the worsening of relations between
the two countries included the two regimes both
calling in one another’s ambassadors to protest
against critical comments. A rocket was also fired
at the walls of the Turkish embassy in Baghdad.
However, according to some analysts, the root cause
of the controversy lies far from Ankara or Baghdad.
Some believe that the real reason for the growing
rift between the two nations, whose relationship has
actually been growing closer over the past few
years, lies with Syria and the growing violence and
protests in that country.
Up until very recently, Turkish-Iraqi relations had
actually been improving. In late January Turkish
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who has attracted
attention worldwide for his diplomacy, talked about
how a strong and united Iraq, with all sects and
ethnicities standing side by side, would be a good
thing for the whole region.
The Turkish have also played a role in mediating
various internal issues in Iraqi politics. The real
shift came about in the summer of 2007 when a large
number of Sunni Muslim politicians said they would
resign from al-Maliki’s government because of the
government’s inability to deal with the security
situation. Al-Maliki asked the Turkish to help
negotiate and they responded positively, convincing
the politicians to staying the government.
As a result, Turkey became something of a political
authority for both Sunni Muslim sect and the ethnic
Turkmen in Iraq, there were new trade deals and
economic agreements made and the Baghdad government
“overlooked” the fact that the Turkish military were
making incursions into Iraq in pursuit of
anti-Turkish-government groups.
Turkey and Iraq are also among each other’s top
trading partners with trade between them reaching
US$12 billion, according to January 2012 figures. Of
this, just over two thirds of investment and trade
is happening in the semi-autonomous state of Iraqi
Kurdistan in Iraq’s north, which borders on Turkey.
One thing that has distinguished the “neo-Ottoman”
policy is the way that Turkey has balanced its
relationships with both Baghdad and the government
of Iraqi Kurdistan in Erbil. If one relationship
starts looking a little tense,www.ekurd.net
Turkey tries to improve its relationship with the
other. This puts both governments - the federal one
in Baghdad and the state government in Erbil - under
constant pressure and allows the Turkish to get the
best from both.
But the latest enmity seems to be proving a little
more problematic. Protests in Syria began last
March, just as Erdogan was visiting Iraq, and since
then it’s become obvious that there is a clear
division in the way that the Turkish and Iraqi
governments see Syria’s future.
Right from the early days of the Syrian uprising,
Turkey has supported protestors’ initiatives, aimed
at toppling the regime of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad.
As US current affairs magazine The Atlantic reports,
on a story about Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian
opposition: “Turkey has hosted the majority of
Syrian opposition conferences on its soil, from
Istanbul to Antalya. Ten thousand Syrian refugees
who fled a massacre in the Idleb province last June
are currently living in tents on the Turkish
border.”
Meanwhile the Iraqi government’s relationship with
Syria has also seen a change, with some saying it’s
a change that’s been encouraged by Iran, another of
the nations that plays a strong political and
economic role in Iraq. Al-Maliki’s government is
reportedly strongly influenced by Iran.
In the summer of 2009 Iraq was accusing Syria of
arming militias that were causing instability in
Iraq. But these days Baghdad’s tone is far more
ambiguous, leading many to believe that the Iraqi
regime is supporting the Syrian government.
Syrian observers felt this particularly keenly after
a visit to Turkey by powerful Iraqi cleric, Ammar
al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi
Council. The visit by al-Hakim, a Shiite Muslim said
to be closest to the Turkish government than many
others, was ostensibly about smoothing out
Iraqi-Turkish tensions.
But a statement about Syria was also made. Al-Hakim
said that the crisis in Syria could only end with
dialogue between the Syrian people and their
government, while Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu urged the Iraqi people to support the
demands of the Syrian people. To Syrian activists
used to reading between the lines, the first
statement by the Iraqi cleric was an echo of the
calls for dialogue made by the Syrian government
itself; the Syrian opposition has already rejected
any idea of dialogue that allows al-Assad remains in
power.
By all accounts, Iran is supportive of the Syrian
regime, whether covertly or overtly. The two
countries have had a mutually beneficial
relationship since the 1980s. For Iran, Syria is a
springboard into the Arab Middle East. And some
observers say that Iran, which is reportedly pulling
out all the stops to support al-Assad, is now trying
to influence Turkey on the Syrian issue, via their
Iraqi allies.
Then again, it also seems that al-Maliki’s
government has no real interest in supporting the
Syrian uprising for its own reasons. After all, why
would they wish for unrest on their western borders,
unrest that could well spread into Iraq itself, at
this difficult time?
Most likely what will influence the outcome of this
situation most is the trade balance between the two
countries. In the past Turkey has used its economic
ties with Baghdad to pressure the Iraqis. Now,
judging by the tone that al-Maliki is taking with
Turkey – a harder line, and one that he has not
tended to use with Turkey before – it seems that
Baghdad is reversing that role. Baghdad has realized
that they are Turkey’s only trade route into the
Middle East, now that Turkey has ceased economic and
diplomatic relations with Syria.
However despite the seriousness of the current
relationship crisis between the two countries, it
seems unlikely that Turkey or Iraq will really push
this diplomatic boat out on this conflict. Neither
of them can afford to gamble with, or disregard,
their own economic interests in this case; both rely
on one another and it would be ill advised for both
nations.
Which leads one to believe that this crisis in
Turkish-Iraqi relations must be a temporary one. And
it is one that will be resolved when the fate of the
current Syrian regime becomes clearer – which must
happen soon, one way or another.
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