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Will Kirkuk Unravel Now That The American
Forces Are Gone?
6.1.2012
By Joel Wing — ekurd.net |
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January 6, 2012
A major worry of some American analysts and soldiers
is the situation in Kirkuk. Located in northern
Iraq, it is the hub of Iraq’s disputed territories.
For decades the city and surrounding area were
contested, with Saddam Hussein trying to Arabize it
by moving in people from southern and central Iraq,
and forcing out Kurds and Turkmen. The Kurds
responded with military offensives using their
peshmerga to try to capture the city. Since 2003,
those tensions have remained with all the major
groups in the province claiming it. Many in the
United States are afraid that this situation will
deteriorate now that the U.S. military is not there.
There are definitely on-going political disputes,
and the future of the province remains unclear, but
to think that the situation will unravel seems
overblown.
All of Kirkuk’s major political parties constantly
bicker with one another. On December 26, 2011 for
instance, Kurdistan Regional President Massoud
Barzani threatened to have a Kurdish administered
referendum in Kirkuk if Article 140 were not
implement. Article 140 is part of the Iraqi
constitution, which says that people who were forced
out by Saddam were to be returned, the Arabs he
moved in would leave, there would then be a census,
and finally a referendum would be held on the future
of all the disputed territories in the country. It
has never been implemented, which is why Barzani
threatened to hold an election administered by
Kurdistan. That came on the heels of a member of the
Turkmen Front on the provincial council rejecting a
referendum, and calling for Tamim governorate to
become an autonomous region. The month before, the
party also said an international investigation was
needed to look into violence against their
community, because the government was doing nothing
about it.
Turkmen, feeling caught between the more powerful
Kurdish and Arabs forces have asked for the province
to become its own region so that it would not be
under the control of either Baghdad or Kurdistan.
The Arab Group on the provincial council chimed in
by saying that it would form its own committee to
protect its community who it claimed was under
attack as well. A parliamentarian from the Iraqi
National Movement blamed the Kurds for these
troubles. The fear of violence was expressed by the
province’s police chief who said that the U.S. was
providing essential logistics,www.ekurd.net
training, and intelligence to the local security
forces, and that would be missed. The head of the
Kurdish security force the Asayish also claimed that
there was an increase in attacks since the U.S.
began withdrawing. He went on to say that he did not
believe that the security forces could handle the
situation now that the Americans were gone. A sign
of the growing tensions after the U.S. withdrawal
was when the Americans tried turning over an air
base to the Iraqis in mid-November. The Kurdish
controlled police refused to allow the Iraqi Army
in. At one point, both sides pulled guns on each
other, and it took six hours to resolve the dispute.
All of these statements were typical of the
political rhetoric in the governorate. Each
community claims to be a victim, and often implies
that one of the others is responsible. The result is
each one wants its own security forces, its own
special committee, and its own solution to the
province’s problems. None seem willing to work with
each other as a result, which leads to the worries
about how the governorate will ultimately work out.
Surprisingly, the political differences within Tamim
have not led to much violence compared to the rest
of the country. For most of 2011, the governorate
was in the middle to bottom ranking in number of
monthly deaths for instance. In January there were
eight deaths, followed by 28 in February, 11 in
March, 25 in April, going up to 49 in May, but then
declining to 10 in June, 33 in July, 11 in August,
19 in September, finished off by 6 in October, 8 in
November, and 21 in December. Those numbers placed
Tamim in the bottom to middle of provinces with
deaths ten out of twelve months. In December, it had
the sixth most deaths out of ten provinces, in
November it was eight out of eight, and in October
it was sixth out of ten. The same thing could be
said about attacks in the province. Like the rest of
the country, there was an uptick in militant
operations during the summer. Attacks went from 13
in January, to 33 in February, to 37 in March,
before jumping to 50 in April, and 45 in May. Just
like casualties, Tamim was also in the middle of the
pact in terms of how many security incidents it had
in relation to the rest of the country. Despite the
accusations made by the province’s parties, all of
the major communities in Tamim have faced violence,
and almost all of it has been at the hands of
insurgent groups. They are playing upon these
tensions to try to divide and ignite larger
conflicts within the province. Fortunately, these
attempts have larger failed as politicians have only
complained about the attacks, not incited their
followers to take up arms against each other.
Tamim – Deaths, Attacks, And Ranking 2011
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Month
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No. of
Deaths
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Rank Out
of Provinces With Monthly Deaths
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No. of
Attacks
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Rank Out
of Provinces With Monthly Attacks
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Jan.
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8
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6 out of
12
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13
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8 out of
15
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Feb.
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28
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4 out of
13
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33
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6 out of
14
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|
Mar.
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11
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7 out of
14
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37
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6 out of
14
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Apr.
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25
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5 out of
12
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50
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2 out of
16
|
|
May
|
49
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4 out of
15
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45
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5 out of
13
|
|
Jun.
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10
|
8 out of
10
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31
|
8 out of
13
|
|
Jul.
|
33
|
6 out of
12
|
42
|
4 out of
15
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Aug.
|
11
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7 out of
13
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55
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3 out of
15
|
|
Sep.
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9
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7 out of
11
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18
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6 out of
13
|
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Oct.
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6
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6 out of
10
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28
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6 out of
16
|
|
Nov.
|
8
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8 out of
8
|
25
|
5 out of
12
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Dec.
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21
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6 out of
10
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40
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3 out of
11
|
While Kirkuk remains a point of contention within
Tamim province, and nationally, it does not appear
that it will suddenly blow up any time soon. The
arguments over the governorate have remained largely
political, and that does not look to be changed.
Despite the concerted efforts of insurgents, they
have not been able to exploit this matter, and cause
ethnosectarian violence. Rather, their attacks and
the number of casualties they’ve been able to
inflict there have been relatively low compared to
the rest of Iraq. While American officials and
analysts may fret about Kirkuk then, it is a matter
that needs a negotiated settlement, not something
that will require security operations or a U.S.
military presence. The American period in Iraqi
history is coming to an end, and it’s now up to the
Iraqis to solve their problems as it always should
have been. That doesn’t mean Kirkuk will be fixed
any time soon, but the current status quo will hold
for the foreseeable future despite worries to the
contrary.
SOURCES
Ali, Mandy Samira, “Mixed reactions to invite the
internationalization of the issue of targeting of
Iraqi Turkmen,” Radio Free Iraq, 11/11/11
Arango, Tim, “Kirkuk Tensions Highlight Concerns
Over U.S. Troop Exit,” At War, New York Times,
4/7/11
Aswat al-Iraq, “Arabs in Kirkuk to form popular
committees for defense,” 12/23/11
- “No one can force Kirkuk to join Kurdistan,
Barzani,” 12/26/11
- “Turkmen attacked amid official silence – Turkmen
Front,” 10/17/11
Bartu, Peter, “Wrestling with the integrity of a
nation: the disputed internal boundaries in Iraq,”
International Affairs, November 2010
Gutman, Roy, “Kirkuk is a ‘land mine’ where all
sides want U.S. to stay,” McClatchy Newspapers,
7/18/11
Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit,
“Security in Iraq,” United Nations
Mahmoud, Nawzad, “US Withdrawal Deals ‘Heavy Blow’
to Kirkuk,” Rudaw, 12/15/11
McEvers, Kelly, “Tensions Feared As U.S. Leaves
Disputed Iraqi City,” NPR, 12/14/11
National Iraqi News Agency, “ISC : initial agreement
to form a political council in Kirkuk in the light
of convergence between ISC and Kurdistan Alliance,”
12/30/11
- “Obeidi threatens to resort to “options in case
injustice against Arab component in Kirkuk
continued,” 1/1/12
Samad, Dityar, “Turkmen call for Kirkuk autonomy,”
AK News, 12/22/11
Zangana, Jamshid, “Kirkuk security deteriorating
with U.S. withdrawal,” AK News, 12/12/11
Joel Wing, with an MA in International Relations,
Joel Wing has been researching and writing about
Iraq since 2002. His acclaimed blog, Musings on
Iraq, is currently listed by the New York Times and
the World Politics Review. In addition, Mr. Wing’s
work has been cited by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, the Guardian and the
Washington Independent. You may visit his Blog
Musings On Iraq at musingsoniraq.blogspot.com
Copyright © 2012 ekurd.net
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