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Can Iraq survive its own politics?
Scenarios
20.1.2012
By Suadad al-Salhy - Reuters |
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Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki gives a speech
during a ceremony marking the Iraqi Police's 90th
anniversary at a police academy in Baghdad January
9, 2012. Photo: Reuters
Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, who is
charged with running a death squad, speaks during an
interview with AFP in Sulaimaniyah, Kurdistan region
of Iraq, on December 25, 2011. Photo: AFP
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January 20, 2012
BAGHDAD,— Iraq's political crisis
shows no sign of easing a month after the Shi'ite-led
government sought the arrest of a Sunni vice
president, triggering fears that Iraq, without the
buffer of U.S. troops, could return to sectarian
conflict.
Accused of running death squads, Vice President
Tareq al-Hashemi is holed up in Iraqi Kurdistan as a
guest of Iraq's Kurdish president. The government of
the semi-autonomous region has not responded to
requests from Baghdad to hand him over.
The move against Hashemi, and Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki's attempt to fire his Sunni deputy, Saleh
al-Mutlaq, prompted a boycott of parliament and
cabinet by the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc.
This has put stress on the fragile coalition of
Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish parties forming Maliki's
power-sharing government.
Some of the worst militant attacks against Shi'ites
in the past year followed quickly on the heels of
the political crisis, which threatens to unravel
Iraq's hard-won coalition government and to worsen
the country's sectarian divide.
Here are some possible scenarios.
MALIKI STAYS HIS COURSE
Hashemi, accused of running death squads, has
demanded his trial be held not in Baghdad, where
Maliki's control runs deep, but in the northern oil
city of Kirkuk, officially in the central
government's hands but where the Kurds have
influence.
Kurdish officials appear to be backing his demand.
Maliki said Hashemi must be tried in the capital. A
court panel has rejected Hashemi's bid to move the
case.
With no sign of a quick resolution on Hashemi,
Maliki's Shi'ite-led government appears poised to
take advantage of obvious rifts in Iraqiya.
The political blocs are working out details of a
conference to help sort out the political turmoil
but it may not happen this month. The conference,
some politicians say,www.ekurd.net
could ease tensions and allow Sunni lawmakers to
save face and go back to their jobs, ending the
boycott.
In Sunni-majority Salahuddin province a bid to win
more autonomy from Baghdad is gaining steam,
although a quick resolution is unlikely. Petitions
have been distributed, a constitutionally necessary
step toward a referendum on greater self-rule.
Maliki's Shi'ite allies are trying to take advantage
of the turmoil to win government jobs, power within
ministries and provincial councils and the release
of prisoners.
Kurdistan may use the presence of Hashemi and
support for Maliki as bargaining chips to win
concessions in its ongoing disputes with Baghdad
over oil and land rights and the region's share of
the national budget.
The government's moves could increase feelings of
political isolation among Sunnis, leading to attacks
by insurgent groups including al Qaeda.
While some analysts and politicians believe the
current problems could lead to Iraq's separation
into Sunni, Kurdish and Shi'ite regions in the
long-term, the near-term result could be a
consolidation of national power by majority Shi'ites.
IRAQIYA BREAKUP?
The government's moves against Hashemi and Mutlaq
have put strains on the Iraqiya bloc, a loose
cross-sectarian alignment that has long been in
danger of crumbling.
Not all members are observing the parliamentary and
cabinet boycotts. Three ministers attended cabinet
this week.
Iraqiya's attempts to rally support in parliament
for a "no confidence" vote against Maliki have gone
nowhere. Potential replacements for the premier have
little support.
Iraqiya won 91 seats in the March 2010 election but
two groups of lawmakers have split -- one a group of
11 Shi'ites and secular Sunnis who call themselves
"White Iraqiya" and the second an alliance of six
secular Sunnis. A third group of 14 may join them.
The bloc decided at a meeting on Wednesday to
continue the boycott. But Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi
suggested Maliki should be replaced or early
elections should be held if the national conference
fails to make peace.
If Iraqiya disintegrates completely, Maliki may get
what he appears to want -- a majority government
with the help of the Kurds -- without further moves
against the Sunni-backed bloc.
But the inclusion of Iraqiya in the coalition
government was considered a key to preventing
sectarian tensions, and its exclusion could
exacerbate Sunni fears.
MORE ATTACKS?
Since the departure of the last U.S. troops on
December 18 and the start of the political crisis,
Iraq has seen some of its worst attacks in the past
year.
On December 22, more than 10 coordinated bombings in
mainly Shi'ite areas of the capital killed 73 people
and wounded 200.
On Saturday, a suicide bomber killed more than 50
people and wounded 130 as Shi'ite pilgrims moved
through a security checkpoint in the southern oil
hub Basra.
Many of the recent attacks bore the marks of al
Qaeda's Iraqi affiliate, which may be flexing its
muscle amid political turmoil. U.S. and Iraqi
security officials say the group has been severely
degraded in recent years but it still has the punch
to carry out some large-scale attacks.
The Shi'ite militia Asaib al-Haq, one of the main
players on the Iraq battlefield in recent years, has
announced it will lay down arms and join politics as
an opposition faction.
But the announcement itself apparently stirred the
anger of anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr,
whose political movement is an important but wary
ally of Maliki in parliament. Sadr denounced Asaib
as "killers" who had no place in politics.
Security officials have warned of tensions and the
potential for violence between Sadrists and Asaib
al-Haq in the streets, where Sadr has legions of
devoted young followers.
A reinvigorated Sunni insurgency, conflict between
Shi'ite militias and meddling by neighbours as part
of a wider regional realignment of Sunni and Shi'ite
power could spark renewed violence in Iraq, where
the rebuilt security forces are still learning to
cope without the presence of U.S. troops.
Copyright ©, respective
author or news agency,
Reuters
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