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Turkey learns rules of the game in Iraq
and Kurdistan
2.4.2011
By Seyfeddin Kara |
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April
2, 2011
Muffled guffaws would have been an appropriate
response from Iraqis to Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan's claim this week that openness and
sincerity have been hallmarks of Turkey's policy
towards its neighbor.
Erdogan, along with the usual coterie of business
people seeking deals in the growing economy, met
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and other senior
politicians in a two-day visit. Erdogan had paid two
previous visits to his growing neighbor, but the
unusual content of his trip from March 28 marked it
as a foreign policy event of particular note.
Before flying to Baghdad on Monday afternoon,
Erdogan told reporters: "Turkey will continue to
support Iraq. We put a lot of
effort into improving bilateral relations in many
areas with Iraq.
What he went on to say was worthy of derision in
Iraq: ''Turkey has been pursuing an open
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Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and
Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani at officially
open Erbil's International Airport on March 29,
2011. Erdogan the first Turkish premier visits the
autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq. Photo: Getty
Images |
and sincere foreign policy towards Iraq over the
past eight years. We tried to provide support to
ease the pains of our Iraqi brothers."
While Turkey and Iraq have a growing economic
bilateral relationship, Turkey has its own agenda
dominated by the Kurdish issue. Ankara's main focus
is the prevention of an independent Kurdish state in
northern Iraq, the elimination of attacks on its
territory by the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) across
the border in northern Iraq, and the protection of a
Turkmen minority residing primarily in Mosul and
Kirkuk. To forward its political agenda, Turkey has
been supporting Turkmens and some Sunni Arab
factions located in its orbit.
Unholy alliances
Turkey saw its "opportunity" to support its agenda
during last year's elections in Iraq. As a part of a
status of forces agreement, the United States will
be withdrawing its last troops from Iraq by the end
2011, which would make way for Turkey to increase
its influence. But first the right pieces had to be
put together to refashion the political landscape of
Iraq.
Growing concerns on the part of the United States
and Saudi Arabia about the rising influence of Iran
in Iraq gave further impetus to the Turkish plan
[1]. The US had wanted to strengthen its influence
by inaugurating a close ally into the Iraqi
government. With the blessing of the US and Saudi
Arabia, there seemed to be no obstacle for the Turks
to realize their goal.
Turkey embarked on a complex and risky political
game during the elections. Under the leadership of
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davudoglu, who accompanied
Erdogan during his visit this week, Turkish
bureaucrats worked behind the scenes on a coalition
in which secular nationalist Sunnis and Turkmens
were placed at the center.
Inclusion of a secular Shi'ite leader, Iyad Alawi,
who held the premiership for 10 months to April
2005, strengthened the plan and gave birth to the
al-Iraqiyya coalition. The Turkish, US and Saudi
alliance planned that Alawi would lead the coalition
and gain a majority to form the next government.
With involvement from Turkey, the coalition ran for
the election and the campaign went ahead despite
protests from the leaders of religious Shi'ite
groups who conveyed their messages of discontent to
Erdogan and Davudoglu personally. [2]
When the election results were revealed the Turks
were taken by surprise. Although al-Iraqiyya came
first, it had insufficient seats to form a
government. It was close-run and the Turks failed to
turn their gains into a political victory. Even
after the election, Ankara continued to refuse to
listen to the religious Shi'ite groups and Kurds,
and instead insisted on forming a government with
the leadership of al-Iraqiyya.
According to Cengiz Candar, a prominent Turkish
expert on Middle East affairs, Ankara wanted a Sunni
president, possibly Tariq al-Hashimi, to replace
Kurdish President Jalal Talabani. The Turks have
always been suspicious of the Kurds,www.ekurd.netand
believed that Talabani had been plotting for an
independent Kurdish state.
An earlier rift between Talabani and Massoud
Barzani, the leader of Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG) that administers the predominantly Kurdish
north of Iraq, gave false hope to Turkey's
policymakers. But the two Kurdish leaders had
already resolved their issues and Barzani continued
to support Talabani when he needed it the most.
Al-Iraqiyya was doomed not to form the government
right from the start. It included ex-Ba'ath members
and nationalist Turks and Arabs. The combination the
Turks put together was unattractive to both Shi'ites
and Kurds; hence the formation of an Iraqi
government was delayed for 249 days.
Finally, the Iranians, who have had good relations
with all groups and strong influence in certain
sections of religious Shi'ite groups, seized the
opportunity: the Iranians got the Kurds and Shi'ites
to sit around a table and helped them find common
ground. A government - headed by Nuri al-Maliki in
his second term as prime minister - was formed, but
few concessions were given to the al-Iraqiyya
coalition.
A second chance
Turkey's intractable attitude angered the Kurds and
the Shi'ites. In an interview given to Milliyet, a
Turkish-language newspaper, Talabani did not
hesitate to express his dismay: "I don't know who is
behind this policy but Turkey's policy on Iraq
[during the elections] was wrong and it failed. Yes
their favorite [candidate] couldn't become prime
minister. And their favorites couldn't become
president and foreign minister ... They did not
support me first but then [when I became president]
they congratulated me."
Talabani, known for his skills as a politician,
promised cooperation with his disappointed neighbor,
while also downplaying Iran's influence in Iraq.
Talabani knew how necessary it was for the new
government, especially its Kurdish element, to work
with Turkey closely for the future and how mutual
economic interests and the realities of post-US Iraq
were pushing Turks and Kurds together.
Turks also learned their lesson. It was obvious that
Erdogan's trip aimed to break the ice with the
Shi'ites and Kurds, and to lay a foundation for a
new approach to Turkey's foreign policy on Iraq.
Turkey seems to have realized that if influence in
Iraq is desired, then it needs to overcome
obsessions with the "Kurdish threat" and "Shi'ite
conspiracy" and work with both groups to nurture
mutual interests. This is perhaps why Erdogan became
the first Turkish premier to visit Najaf, a power
center of Shi'ites, and Erbil, capital of the
Kurdistan autonomous region.
In line with the policy in its relations with other
neighbors, Turkey wants to increase its "soft power"
in Iraq. Ankara has been working hard to get maximum
benefit from Iraq's economic prosperity and natural
resources. Soon after the US invasion of Iraq in
2003, an aggressive economic campaign was launched
by private Turkish enterprises, especially in closer
and more stable northern Iraq. Since then, almost
80% of goods in northern Iraq have been imported
from Turkey; the region's trade with Turkey has
reached $7.5 billion a year.
On Erdogan's previous visit to Iraq in October,
2009, 48 memoranda of understanding were signed for
a more comprehensive economic integration. A senior
Turkish official traveling with the business
delegation earlier this week announced that Turkey
hoped bilateral trade would rise from $7.5 billion
last year to $10 billion in 2011 and reach a $25
billion target.
Turkey also has been seeking to become the main
route for the export of Iraqi oil and gas,
especially for the proposed Nabucco pipeline that
goes through northern Iraq to Turkey and on to
Europe.
Iraqis are also pleased with the growing economic
relations as Turkish construction companies are
rebuilding the war-torn country and Turkey is acting
as a gateway for the vast energy sources of Iraq for
European markets.
Turkey is a major investor in Iraq, especially in
the gas sector and it hosts key pipelines for Iraqi
oil exports through its port on the Mediterranean,
and provides Iraq with electricity. More than 260
Turkish contractors currently operate in Iraq on
projects valued at nearly $11 billion. Turkey also
means stability; in the current climate of
uncertainty and mayhem, securing support of a
popular country may give a sense of steadiness to a
frail Iraq.
However, the biggest obstacle to closer relations
remains the issue of the PKK. Erdogan made this very
clear in a speech to Iraqi legislators aired on
state television. Understanding the sensitivity of
the issue, Maliki signaled a harsher crackdown on
the PKK in Iraq by making allusions between the PKK
and al-Qaeda. This seemed to raise hopes among
members of the Turkish delegation, given their
concerns that the PKK's spring campaigns will
probably soon begin with the melting of snows on the
mountains of southeast Turkey.
Discovering Shi'ites
Erdogan's meeting with the most senior Shi'ite
religious leader of Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali
Sistani, was a very important part of the mix on the
visit. Erdogan became the first Sunni premier to
meet the 80-year-old influential cleric and to pray
at Imam Ali Mosque. Although Turkey and Iran have
been developing good relations, Turkey had been
worried about the increasing influence of Iran in
Iraq, and blamed Shi'ites for paving the way for
Tehran. Consequently, regardless of their different
views on Iran, Turkey has remained aloof to the
Shi'ites.
Recent developments, however, are forcing Turkey to
think outside of the box. George Friedman, founder
of US think-tank Stratfor, made it clear in an
interview that Turkey must change its stance:
The US army is leaving Iraq this year, hence the
future of Iraq and Iran's ambition to become a
dominant power in Iraq directly affect Turkey's
national interests. Turkey claims "We don't have any
problem with Iran"; yes, they may say this but they
cannot ignore the problems regarding the future of
Iraq. Turkey will have to come to an understanding
[with Iran] as much as possible for the future of
Iraq. This might [lead to] Turkey and the US [being]
at odds.
Turkey may have already begun to reach for better
understanding: As a sign of Turkey's changing
policy, Erdogan has been making conspicuous gestures
to Shi'ites. A few months ago, he joined the Ashura
ceremonies, the most important Shi'ite occasion to
commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Husain, grandson
of the Prophet Mohammad, held in Istanbul.
Erdogan was the first Turkish leader to attend the
ceremonies and to give a speech that was warmly
received by Shi'ites all around the world. It has
been reported that Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr,
the kingmaker of Iraqi politics, sent a personal
message to congratulate Erdogan on his
participation.
This month, during the first days of the de facto
Saudi invasion of Bahrain to suppress Shi'ite
demonstrators, Erdogan warned the Saudis about
causing another Kerbala for Shi'ites. Although he
soon backtracked under pressure from Riyadh,
Erdogan's message was again well received by
Shi'ites.
Erdogan's visit to Sistani came as the latest and
perhaps the most important development for Turkey's
rapprochement with Shi'ites. In the meeting, issues
regarding Iraq weren't the only topics under
discussion. They talked about regional developments,
especially the Saudi invasion of Bahrain. As Khaled
al-Jashaami, a member of Najaf's provincial council
put it before the meeting took place, "We expect
Iraqi issues to be discussed, as well as what is
happening in neighboring countries, especially in
Bahrain."
The timing of these events suggests that they are
calculated moves by the Turks who finally have
realized that they should not underestimate the
growing significance of Shi'ite influence not only
in Iraq but in the whole region.
Notes
1. Asli Aydintasbas, November 18, 2010, Milliyet
Newspaper.
2. Furkan Torlak, November 22, 2010, Dunya Bulteni.
Seyfeddin Kara is a historian, researcher and
human-rights activist based in London.
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