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US withdrawal will leave Iraqi Kurds more
dependent on neighbors
1.9.2010
By Hawar Abdul-Razaq |
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September 1, 2010
ERBIL-Hewlêr,
Kurdistan region 'Iraq', — As the US has reduced its
presence here in Iraq, political experts warn the
Kurds to strengthen their ties with neighboring
countries and remain less reliant on the US.
The Kurds have long considered the US their closest
ally and friend. This alliance was augmented by the
2003-Iraq War after the Kurds became an unreserved
US ally after Turkey refused to cooperate with the
Americans to invade Iraq.
But now some political observers believe that it is
better for Kurds build up its political and economic
relations with Turkey to avoid any possible threat
posed by Iran and the Arab Iraq.
"The Kurds have some reason to be nervous about US
departure,” said Kenneth Katzman, specialist in
Middle East affairs for the Congressional Research
Service where he provides analysis on Iraq and
Middle East to the members of Congress and their
staffs.
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File photo |
“The US departure will
mean that the KRG loses a valuable ally that is
guaranteeing the autonomy of the KRG," added Katzman.
“Because both Shiite and Sunni Arabs do not want
Kurds having autonomy or control over their own oil
resources.”
Qubad Talabani, representative of the Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG) to Washington in an
interview earlier in the mid of last month told
Rudaw that the Kurds are no longer the 2003
unreserved ally of the US.
“I would like to say that we are not in 2003 now,”
said Talabani, son of Iraqi President Jalal
Talabani. “We won’t say ‘OK’ for whatever US says.”
However, Katzman does not believe that the Iraqi
government will be in a position to crash on the
Kurds,www.ekurd.netas far the Arab parties remain weak and
divided in the south and center of Iraq.
“The national government armed forces will not be
strong enough at any time in the foreseeable future
to invade northern Iraq, as Saddam did, and oust the
KRG,” said Katzman.
“The KRG is enshrined in the TAL and the national
Constitution and invading northern Iraq would be
against the established constitution".
Daniel P. Serwer supervisor of the United States
Institute of Peace's (USIP) efforts in Afghanistan,
Iraq, the Balkans, Haiti and Sudan, says that there
are reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about
the future of the Kurds following the full
withdrawal of US forces by the end of happen next
year.
"There are of course risks from all those
directions, but there are also opportunities,” said
Serwer.
“Relations between Kurdistan and Turkey have
improved markedly. There is no reason why they
should not continue to improve, especially if
Kurdistan is able to limit the threat to Turkey from
the PKK members who hide out in Iraqi Kurdistan,” he
added.
On the other hand, Serwer says “Tehran is the most
problematic: the Iranians fear instability arising
from Kurds inside Iran and at the same time they
have promoted instability inside Iraq".
Just like almost any other political analyst, David
L. Phillips, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of
the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on
Foreign Relations, is
supportive of the enhancement of the Turkey-KRG
ties.
The US also prefers Turkey to play a central role
Iraq rather than Iran as it is leaving the country
for the vulnerable Iraqis.
"The KRG has been prudent by developing close
diplomatic and commercial ties with Turkey. Ankara
is an important strategic partner and acts as a
counter-weight to Baghdad. The KRG should continue
to strengthen those ties while maintaining
constructive relations with others," said Phillips.
Copyright, respective
author or news agency, rudaw net
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