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Iraq After US Withdrawal – End of Era or
New Beginning?
28.8.2010
By Hiwa Osman |
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August 28, 2010
As the debate continues over the effects of the
United States troop withdrawal from Iraq, there are
forces manoeuvring to fill the gap left by the
Americans. But they are outsiders, not Iraqis.
The 4th Stryker Brigade made history last week when
they withdrew to Kuwait, the last US combat soldiers
to leave Iraq.
So what’s next? Iraqis don’t seem to be thinking
about the repercussions too much, but regional
players are already strategising about how they can
gain the upper hand.
Each of Iraq’s neighbours is carefully plotting its
own strategy. Every scenario would be detrimental,
destabilising and damaging for both Iraq and
America.
Iran is trying to frame its relationship with Iraq
as one of brotherly concern. As the stalemate in
forming a new Iraqi government has continued since
the March parliamentary election, Tehran has managed
to stall the political process while ensuring that
the next government can be only be created with its
blessing – and only after the US troop withdrawal.
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Hiwa Osman, IWPR Iraq’s country director, previously
served as Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s media
adviser. |
As Iraqiya leader Ayad Allawi’s
bid for the premiership gained momentum, Iran
quickly forged a new alliance between Iraq’s two
main Shia blocs, the Iraqi National Alliance, INA,
and State of Law. The goal was to prevent Allawi,
who is favoured by Sunnis and enjoys close ties with
US and Arab leaders, from become prime minister.
The short-lived alliance between the two rival Shia
groups collapsed when Tehran failed to shift INA’s
staunch opposition to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s
re-election bid. But Iranian influence remains
intact, with Tehran reportedly continuing to
pressure Shia leaders within INA to accept Maliki,
as they hold talks with all the major players.
Iran has made extraordinary efforts to ensure that
it has the upper hand in Iraq, and if it brokers the
deal that creates the next government, its influence
will be assured.
Turkey, meanwhile, has already made it clear that it
might intervene to fill the gap created by the
departure of the Americans, albeit in an area where
the US never had a presence, the Qandil mountains,
stronghold of the Kurdish rebel group, the PKK.
The wider Arab world seems to have its own plans for
gaining a foothold in Iraq and changing the
political landscape. Some Arab states are working
quietly, through Turkey, to influence the situation
in favour of the Iraq’s Sunni Arab minority.
A recent piece in the London-based, Saudi-owned
newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat, reported that Turkey,
Syria, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries were
planning a conference modelled on the 1989 Taef
Agreement which ended Lebanon's civil war.
The article said the conference would seek “to
resolve issues in Iraq away from Iranian and
American influence”, and would take place in
Damascus.
The paper quoted Iraqi sources as saying that a
government could not be formed without the
involvement of Arab states, and set out four
different scenarios, all of which excluded Maliki
and favoured Allawi to head the government.
Syria seems to be turning a blind eye to al-Qaeda
activities, including allowing insurgents to cross
into Iraq.
Earlier this year, a joint Iraqi-US special
operations team in Mosul killed Abu Khalaf, a top
al-Qaeda figure based in Syria who had coordinated
suicide bombings in Anbar and Baghdad. In late 2008,
a US raid on the Syrian border city of al-Bukamal
killed several senior foreign fighters operating
against Iraqi targets.
Damascus is also allowing the Baath party to
organise and operate freely as it attempts to
destabilise Iraq. Fugitive members of the Baath who
have been charged with or convicted of various
crimes are moving around freely in a number of Arab
countries,www.ekurd.netin
some cases with the protection of the host
government.
It is clear that al-Qaeda will do whatever it can to
capitalise on Iraq’s current vulnerability. The
security forces are demoralised, there is no
government in place, and the top security officials
– the interior and defence ministers – have been
undermined by losing their parliamentary bids in the
March election.
All the above scenarios are plausible if neither the
Iraqis nor the Americans make positive plans for the
post-withdrawal phase.
Following the troop withdrawal, the US still needs
to ensure that Iraq heads towards becoming a stable,
democratic, peaceful and viable partner of the US
and the free world. This has not happened yet, and
has taken longer than originally anticipated.
For this to happen, the US needs to play an active
political role in the country, and to do so in ways
that empower the voices of independent Iraqis and
groups. The Americans need to promote good
governance and support efforts to steer Iraq in the
right direction.
Iraqis need to realise that thus far, the doors have
been left open to interference by nearly everyone in
the region. Now that the American troops have gone,
Iraq’s leaders need to understand that the more
interference they allow, the less relevant they
themselves will become. And in doing so, they will
let Iraq become a battleground for regional and
international players.
Hiwa Osman
is IWPR’s country director in Iraq, previously served as
Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s media adviser. You
can visit his Blog at hiwaosman.blogspot.com
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