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Will the unity government of Nouri Al-Maliki
last?
20.3.2010
By Baqi Barzani, a longtime contributing writer for ekurd.net |
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March
20, 2010
Divergent predictions suggest that the coalition led
by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki might edge his
rivals in the parliamentary elections.
Washington does not seem very rapturous with the
likelihood of his re-election.
The US administration is more seeking a centrist,
more pro-Sunni, less sectarian, less religious, and
less ideological figure. Rhetorics between Al-Maliki
and American administration do not seem to be going
very smooth, either. Ties have deteriorated to an
extent that some senior US officials like Hillary
Clinton, Sen. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat and
chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee,
called for him to be removed from power. In response
to which, Al-Maliki had said democratic senators
were acting as if Iraq was "their property" and that
they should "come to their senses" and "respect
democracy.
Various assumptions have been weighed in past and
present,including: 1) Toppling Al Maliki in
parliament and substituting him with vice-president
2) Pressuring Al Maliki to resign 3) An
assassination attempt against Al Maliki 4) Staging a
military coup 5) Rising former interim Prime
Minister Ayad Allawai to power. 6) Re-installing a
more Saddam-like regimes in Baghdad using former
Baathists 7) Alternatives other than democracy.
What exasperates Washington the most is Al-Maliki’s
behavior and his penchant toward Iran and Syria.
Both countries constitute “Axis of Evil” and have
been accused of buttressing terrorists against
coalition forces. Al-Maliki’s party aligned with the
Iranian Revolution during the Iran-Iraq War and the
group still receives financial backing from Tehran
despite ideological differences with the Islamic
Republic. Most of its members still have strong ties
with the Iranian government dating back to 70’s and
80’s.
During his 24 years in exile (1979-2003), Al-Maliki
developed strong ties with numerous Shiite groups
some of which are outlawed by the US state
department. His Islamic Dawa Party’s ideology is
Islamic Shiia and conservatism. It opposes the rise
of secularism in Iraq and is a counterweight to the
rising influence of the Sunni.
Albeit, his government has proved to maintain some
level of stability in Iraq, it lacks a solid,
transparent strategy to cobble together the hostile
Sunni and Shiite groups. “The national united
government succeeded in putting down the sectarian
war that was threatening the unity and the
sovereignty of Iraq”,www.ekurd.nethe
quoted. There is no guarantee that sectarian peace
will persist in Iraq. Sadderists, Baathists and
terrorists have the capacity to trigger a sectarian
war again in any split second.
The premier has not been able to deliver his pledges
to the Kurdish Regional Government on the issues of
Kirkuk, the distribution of oil revenue, the
designation of final boundaries of the KRG, and the
status of the Peshmerga fighters, causing suspicion
among Kurds to form up a renewed alliance with him.
Will the unity government of Nouri Al-Maliki last?
Will he succeed in coalescing a world of clashing
paramilitaries, warlords, sectarian fighters, death
squads, criminal enterprises, and several ten
thousand Army men and police that are only loosely
under the control of the central government? Will
there be a revolutionary coup or an assassination
attempt against him? Will Iraq continue to maintain
its sovereignty and territorial integrity? Will the
anarchy ultimately lead to the disintegration of
country? For any of these mentioned scenarios, a
strong leadership will be a requisite to
crystallize. Where, when and how will this occur
remains to be seen yet.
After 7 tireless years of hard works, the future of
Iraq still remains in vague. Iraq is a nation
maintaining itself by means of coercion. Al-Maliki,
Alwai and alikes are powerless in salvaging the rule
of law, permanent stability and the national unity
government. Premiership and presidency have more
profession characteristics than true authority. The
even greater worry is if Al-Maliki is removed from
office, who will be able to control this out of
control nation?
Baqi Barzani is a
Kurdish citizen of Sought Kurdistan [Iraq]. He
advocates the notion of " establishing an
independent Kurdish state". He contributes to
various Kurdish media outlets, especially ekurd.net.
Copyright © 2010 ekurd.net. All rights reserved
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