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Anderson: Kurds will lose Iraqi presidency
11.3.2010
By Hawar Ali |
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March
11, 2010
ERBIL-Hewlęr,
Kurdistan region 'Iraq', — Iraq-expert Liam Anderson
says its likely that the Kurds will lose Iraq's
presidency in an interview with Rudaw. He also
claims if the Kurds cannot get a resolution for the
disputed regions now, the territory will be lost
forever.
Liam Anderson is Assistant Professor of Political
Science at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio.
He is the author of "Crisis in Kirkuk: The Ethno
politics of Conflict," and "Compromise and The
Future of Iraq: Dictatorship, Democracy or
Division."
Do you see a possible
alliance between a Kurdish list and an Arab list
after the election?
Obviously this will depend on the outcome of the
election, but I think an alliance with the Iraqi
National Alliance is plausible.
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Liam Anderson, an Assistant Professor of Political
Science at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio |
It is also possible that
other coalitions (Iraqiyya, for example) will form a
broad anti-Maliki coalition with the Kurds and the
INA after the election. It is difficult for me to
see the Kurds working with the State of Law, given
the hostility of Maliki toward the Kurdish demands.
Do you expect the Kurds to
retain the President and the Foreign Minster's
posts?
I think the Kurds will probably lose the Presidency
to a Sunni Arab, but this is not particularly
important because the Presidency after this election
will be relatively powerless (unless the Article 142
process is completed and changes this). Essentially,
the President becomes a figurehead and can no longer
veto legislation. Obviously, if the Kurds are going
to join a governing coalition then they will need to
be given at least 1 “power” position – which could
be foreign minister. Personally, I think they would
be better off going for Interior Minister so they
can influence internal security matters.
Do you think the Kurds have
shot themselves on the foot by going separately in
the election and do you think divisions will weaken
Kurdish future power?
Yes and no. It does not matter that Kurds are
internally divided if they are united on the core
issues that concern Kurdistan’s relations with the
rest of Iraq (oil and gas, budget, Peshmerga, Kirkuk
etc). Some competition among Kurdish political
parties can also be beneficial in terms of democracy
within the Kurdistan Region. The danger is that
other groups can exploit divisions amongst Kurds
(divide and conquer) by rewarding some Kurdish
parties at the expense of others. Kurdish parties
should avoid this at all costs.
Do you think this election
marks the beginning of the end for PUK?
Difficult to say. If Change outpolls the PUK it is
difficult to see how the PUK continues in its
current form. On the other hand, the PUK is still a
powerful organization that will persist regardless
of the election results. My best guess would be that
the reformist element within the PUK will attempt a
reconciliation/merger with Change (if Change
outperforms PUK),www.ekurd.netbut
I would not claim to be an expert on this In your
opinion, do you see a future alliance between KDP
and Gorran "Change" movement, if PUK fail to win
back the trust of voters?
They may well ally on issues of importance to Kurds
(Kirkuk, oil and gas etc) but it is difficult for me
to see Change and the KDP forming an alliance for
internal Kurdish elections.
Do you believe Nuri Al-Maliki
will remain as a Prime Minister?
Difficult to say, but I suspect he has by now made
too many enemies. I think there are many politicians
who fear his increasing power and will try to keep
him out. He has also demonstrated his willingness to
turn on (betray) former allies, so I don’t think he
will be trusted. One possibility maybe that Allawi
emerges as a compromise candidate for PM With going
by several different lists.
Do you think this time the
Kurds will have a real impact in Iraqi Parliament
regarding the issues like Kirkuk and Peshmarga
force?
I don’t think going in with different lists changes
much, assuming the lists stick together on the key
issues. I just have a difficult time seeing the
Kurds having the numbers to make a serious impact on
these issues. The best chance is if Kurdish parties
are numerical essential to forming a government, in
which case they can push these issues. On the other
hand, they have tried to do this in the past and
have not met with much success.
In your opinion, what
should the Kurd's program be in Baghdad?
The key issue is resolving the disputed territories
issue. At the moment, there is no established border
for the Kurdistan Region, and this affects
everything else (oil and gas, deployment of
Peshmerga, the budget etc). It is also a source of
permanent friction between the Kurds and everyone
else, and so can be used by Arab politicians against
the Kurds. Unless the Kurds can get some sort of
resolution on this issue NOW, then this territory
will likely be lost forever.
Copyright, respective author or news agency, rudaw
net
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