Analysts, politicians concerned over security and
power-sharing after parliamentary vote.
March
8, 2010
Iraq is headed for a post-election political
deadlock that could lead to security problems and
deepen sectarian rifts, politicians and analysts
say.
The Iraqi constitution states that a new government
should be formed within a month of election results
being certified. But the usual delays caused by
parties horse-trading over the creation of a ruling
coalition will be exacerbated this time around
because there is likely to be good deal of
protracted deal-making over the appointment of a
president who, unlike in the past, will have
substantial power.
Some politicians and analysts worry that the power
vacuum could be exploited by extremists.
“Al-Qaeda looks for any opening to commit attacks,”
Adil Barwari, a member of the security and defence
parliamentary committee, said. “The post-election
period is a perfect time for them. There will be a
political vacuum, but hopefully not a security one,
because the government and especially security
ministries are tasked with handling security until
the formation of the new government.”
The United States has pushed for a new government to
be formed as soon as possible, and American military
officials warned this week that attacks could
escalate if political horse-trading stalls progress.
US commanders have also hinted in recent weeks that
combat forces might remain in Iraq past the August
2010 withdrawal date if the elections are followed
by bloodshed, as in 2005.
“If al-Qaeda commits attacks this time, then it is
up to the next government to decide whether it is
necessary to ask American troops to stay and delay
the withdrawal plan or not," Barwarai said. "It also
depends on the next political blocs in the
parliament and their strategies and views. This is
not just a security decision, it is also a political
one.”
Because no one party is expected to win the 163
seats in Iraq's 325-seat parliament needed to form a
government, a complex process of deal-making and
coalition-building will precede the selection of a
prime minister and the approval of a cabinet.
"I am sure forming the new government will take
months,” Azad Chalak, a member of the Iraqi
parliament's integrity committee, said. “The reason
is the mistrust between Iraqi politicians. It will
be very difficult for the new government to get a
vote of confidence in the next Iraqi parliament.
“Even a Shia-led government cannot get through
parliament easily. Before they were united, but now
they have different, separate lists, and it’s the
same with the Kurds and Sunnis.
“Any delays in forming a government after the poll
[will] make the problems of Iraqis worse. The threat
of attacks is one thing, but Iraq also badly needs
services and investment. Actually, the country
cannot bear deadlock again.”
The government formation process will be furthered
complicated with the end of the so-called
transitional phase of Iraq's constitution, which
will expire after the March 7 election. The 2004
charter, approved overwhelmingly in a 2005
referendum, provided for a three-person presidential
council as a means of stabilising Iraq's
ethno-sectarian disputes until 2010.
There was an unofficial agreement that the council -
which had the power to send new legislation back to
parliament up to three times before its passed -
would consist of one Shia, one Sunni and one Kurd.
But this council will be dissolved after the March 7
election. In the future, there will still be one
president and two vice-presidents, but the three
will no longer make decisions by consensus. The
president will assume the powers of the council.
The president and his deputies will be elected
separately by parliament with a 50 per cent-plus-one
majority of parliamentary votes, instead of
two-thirds as was required in the past.
The removal of this supermajority approval was meant
to make the election of these officials easier and
hence speed up the formation of a new leadership.
But there’s likely to be even more protracted
negotiation over the post of president than in the
past because it will have more power, with Shia,
Sunni and Kurdish politicians all vying to make sure
that one of their own is appointed.
“The single presidency will create more problems,”
said Sami Atrushi, member of the Iraqi parliament's
legal affairs committee, who believes the
transitional phase is still needed to maintain
stability. “The Sunnis and Kurds have started a
fierce campaign to try to secure this position
before the election. I worry about what will happen
after the poll.”
Forming a new government took almost five months
following the 2005 elections, and some experts
believe that this new political framework will not
prevent similar months of confusion and delay.
“I am not optimistic about forming government in one
month as hoped for by the constitution," said
Atrushi. "This time many coalitions are after the
prime minister position,www.ekurd.netso
it is not easy to form government and maintain the
relations of the different communities as well. I
believe we will see a political crisis after the
poll. In fact, this change [to the presidential
council] may make sectarian and ethnic problems
worse.”
Ali Kareem is an IWPR-trained journalist in
Baghdad. Hemin H Lihony is IWPR’s local editor in
Sulaimaniyah.
Copyright, respective author or news agency,
iwpr net
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