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Michael Rubin: "Cheating will soil Kurds
reputation"
5.3.2010
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Qubad
Talabani doesn’t realize, is that as soon as Mam
Jalal dies, the Barzanis are going to kick the
Talabanis away. I suspect after Mam Jalal’s death I
will have easier time getting into Kurdistan than
Quabd will.
March
5, 2010
The Kurdish Radio [Curdonia] interviews Michael
Rubin a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute (AEI), senior lecturer at the Naval
Postgraduate School, and lecturer at Johns Hopkins
University.
Q: The Iraqi
election is due in 7th March, how is the election
going to shape Iraq under the shadow of the
democrats? And since the Iraqi society is
psychologically divided into Sunni-Shia-Kurd? And
knowing about the Arabists of the state dept who are
champions of keeping the status quo? Where does
eventually this election lead?
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Michael Rubin |
Rubin:
Within Iraq when it comes to Kurdish issues, I do
not think things will change. What proportion is
going to be between the Kurdistani list versus the
Gorran list represented in Baghdad, It seems that
both are equally committed to issues that are of
great importance to Kurdistan with regard to
Federalism and Kirkuk.
But when it comes to the broader Iraqi governance I
would suspect that difficulties with the PUK it is
going to mean the end of Jalal Talabani’s
presidency. People in Washington are reconciled with
this. For reasons that have nothing to do with Iraqi
Kurdistan politics but rather frankly Mam Jalal is
quite old and his health isn’t great. It would be
interesting to see when the new government is
formed,www.ekurd.netwhat
role the Kurds are going to play? Will they have the
presidency, foreign ministry or other key ministries
like Defense or interior? I do suspect it is going
to take several months before these questions are
worked out. In this time period, there will be a lot
of opportunity for Kurdish leaders, whether that is
Massoud Barzani or Nawshirwan Mustafa to negotiate
hard with the officials in Baghdad to maximize
Kurdish interests .
Q: it looks like
you already decided the outcome of the elections you
talk about Barzani and Nawshirwan Mustafa leaving
out PUK, are you sure that the role of Jalal
Talabani is already diminished ?
Rubin: Looking
at what happened inside PUK, it would be hard for
PUK to assert much influence. This is something
reckoned with by KDP. There is a lot of discussion
after the municipal election last year that the
representation that has been promised to PUK was a
little too much given that how poorly the PUK did in
the elections. That is an issues beside corruption
and accountability whether you are a Kurd, Arab,
Sunni or Shia or anything else ?
Q: How do the
American administration view the violence and the
political tension in Iraqi Kurdistan ?
Rubin: It a
positive thing that the American embassy and the
American diplomats in Kurdistan has started to meet
with Gorran list and its primary politicians who are
participating in it. That has nothing to do with
endorsing the Gorran list. The Americans don’t
endorse anyone nor do I. However, it is recognition
that the status quo is no longer tenable. Americans
should have relationship with every political party
that embraces non-violent in Kurdistan.
Q: You still
influence Iraqi affairs as an occupier in all parts
of Iraq, let’s say that the violence will escalate
in Iraqi Kurdistan, the people and candidates of the
opposition will be exposed to harassment, shootings
and killings. Will US intervene in this case ?
Rubin: No,
unless the violence get out of control. But it might
condemn the violence, and there is recognition that
the violence tends to be directed from those in
power towards those in the opposition rather than
the way around. Certainly , the Americans are
starting to see behind the rhetoric of Kurdish
democracy. They recognize that Kurdistan does not
have yet a democracy. It needs a lot of steps to be
taken. In this election the open list is a positive
development. It allows for direct accountability of
people who may have been corrupt in their position.
On the other hand I do much worry about the fairness
and the freedom of the election on election day. I
am afraid of interference and impartiality of IHEC
at the polls.
Q: We saw the
example of Afghanistan were mass fraud were
committed and the Obama administration didn’t
interfere or countered that? Let’s say that happens
in Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq, don’t you think
it is the responsibility of US to have a strong
position on that ?
Rubin: on one
hand yes, but ultimately the responsibility lies
within Iraqi Kurds and Arabs to make sure that is
things does not happen. It is a tragedy for
Kurdistan Kurdish democracy, Kurdish right for the
sake of few dollars in someone’s pocket they throw
the best chance they had in order to promote a free
and democratic Kurdistan. If few Kurds do cheat on
election day, it does soil the reputation of Kurds
internationally . The Americans do have the
responsibility; I have been criticizing the Obama
Administration for not doing enough ahead of time.
Although Biden has been out there trying. With
regard to Afghanistan the Americans got flatfooted
there weren’t expecting what occurred. I know that
some officials went there since to clean up the
mess. I do think this is on the mind of American
ambassador Hill as we move forward.
Q: It has been
recognized that fraud was committed in the last
summer election of Kurdistan’s parliament. What I
understand from you words is that it is partially
due to the mentality of the people and partially
cause of the leadership. And that the major reason
lies within the responsibility of the Kurdish
political parties. It didn’t have much to do with
the buying of people’s votes.
Rubin: I don’t
blame the mentality of Kurds. Look I mean there are
photographs of Masrour Barzani casting his vote at
two separate polling stations. There still hasn’t
been an explanation about why those polling stations
had their hours unilaterally extended nor about so
many members of IHEC ended up getting fancy houses
around Ankawa.
Q: Kurdish
officials and leadership are trying to attract
investments From Europe and USA ? do you think these
investments are to cement their rule in Iraqi
Kurdistan ??
Rubin:
Investment is good and there is no doubt that Iraqi
Kurdistan has developed. The question is whether
Iraqi Kurds have got as much out it as they should
have. Iraqi Kurdistan on one hand could be like
Qatar, Dubai or like Jordan to a lesser extent. But
the fact is that much of the investments which have
been announced, has benefitted only one or two
families, or much of the announced investments has
not come to fruition. For example cases like opening
a tomato paste factory that took several million
dollars, ultimately is not going to work because the
patriotic union of Kurdistan decided to break its
agreement and just wanted more money. I know many
Airlines that wanted to fly to Erbil, but the KDP
authorities decided to charge Airplanes wanting to
park in Erbil more than John F.Kennedy airport in
New York city, which is just ridiculous. They wanted
just to fill their pockets and a lot of businesses
said no. We can also look at Korek. Iraqi Kurds
deserve a company that works. For Korek to win its
license, it spent something less than one billion
dollar, actually 600 Million that money came out of
KRG’s budget for the private use of Massoud
Barzani’s nephew, not Nechirvan Barzani but a
different one. And this is absolutely wrong.
Nowadays Korek is still a poor company because it is
a family company,www.ekurd.netit
is not a professional company. So at one hand you
have development, and it is easy for KRG to say it
is because of us but the issue is not whether there
has been development or not but it is whether there
has been development as there could be. If the
Barzanis and the Talabanis did not decide to take so
much money, and have Hamid Sabir ,the Iraqi
Ambassador in Beijing, to deposit it in investments
specifically meant for the Talabani family.
Q: Michael let’s
come into more a personal realm, you write almost on
daily basis on National review, in one of the
articles you give two reasons why the issue of
Kurdistan has become a personal issue to you, first
the threats and second the situation of your Kurdish
friends in Kurdistan ? is it true that you are
banned from travelling to Kurdistan ?
Rubin:
Officially Qubad Talabani says No. Unofficially,
when I have people check the computers in the
airport (Because I have my contacts in the airport
and the interior ministry) They say I am banned, and
what it look like it is placed by Masrour Barzani.
Barham Salih is powerless to reverse something like
this. He has not much power beside in name. I will
go to Kurdistan anyway, I am teaching a course at
John Hopkins University on Mondays and that means
that I have to be in Washington on Mondays. What
Masrour and Qubad want for me is to show up in the
airport and be turned away This is the mentality.
Eventually I am going to Kurdistan, and if I go I
want to stay couple of weeks there. My wife was
there for the first time in December and January and
she absolutely loved it. She has just nothing to say
but the positive about Kurdistan and the Kurdish
people.
Q: what kind of
threats did you receive?
Rubin: Threats
passed through mutual friends, the typical threats
Q: Like physical
threats ?
Rubin: yes, and
at the same time you had people from Karim Sinjari’s
office like Harry Shute writing letters to my boss
that I should be fired. And this is back in 2005,
obviously that didn’t work . This is one of the
things that let the KRG look ridiculous. They cannot
to do to people in Washington what they do to people
in Erbil or Sulaimaniyah.
Q: when did the
breach happened, when did you decide to write that
critical article?
Rubin: I raised
those issues privately , because my students in
2000-2001 when their houses got confiscated in
Sulaimaniyah by Nokan company (Hero Ibrahim Ahmed’s
company) I would bring it up to Qubad and he got
annoyed with me. I wrote in the daily star, a Beirut
newspaper, about corruption in 2005. That was the
first time when got threatened. I continued to talk
to Qubad Talabani for some time. Qubad asked me why
don’t you tell me what the real problem is, and that
is when I wrote the very critical essay which
actually in retrospect if you read the whole thing,
it is not that critical. It is very factual. The
point of the article is not to criticize the Kurds,
it is basically to say that corruption is becoming a
real problem. That is when Mam Jalal (Jalal
Talabani) threatened to sue me. In reality, he never
did nor did Massoud Barzani. I do not think that
Jalal Talabani really cared about my essay. What I
think happened, it often happens in PUK and KDP,
that you have mid-level people who wants to
ingratiate themselves to Mam Jalal, to show they are
the most loyal PUK members. And some of them said in
the newspaper that they are going to sue me. This
became embarrassing to Jalal Talabani and had to
back down. I do not speak to Qubad anymore nor him
to me. We see each other in Washington since it is a
small town. Qubad Talabani up to 2004 said he did
not want to be that involved in politics, around
2004-2005 he decided to become a political figure.
This is one the PUK started to become a party like
KDP, which is more revolving around family. Hero
Khan wants Qubad to become a player. And this the
reason why Qubad went to Erbil to meet all the
ministers and the deputies, to try to sell himself.
But Qubad realizes that he has no future unless with
the Barzanis. So, he became a friend with Nechirvan
Barzani. What Qubad doesn’t realize, is that as soon
as Mam Jalal dies (although a tragedy Mam Jalal has
done many great things), the Barzanis are going to
kick the Talabanis away. When you talk to Massoud or
Nechirvan Barzani, they seem to associate Quabd too
much with Hero Ibrahim Ahmed, and they simply hate
her with a passion. I suspect after Mam Jalal’s
death I will have easier time getting into Kurdistan
than Quabd will.
Q: did this
appear from the last visit from Massoud Barzani to
Washington ?
Rubin: A lot of
people know this from talking to the Barzanis, this
last visit of Barzani was ok although not great. A
lot of people raised their eyebrows at Barham Salih
not coming along. It really undercut Massoud
Barzani’s reputation n Washington. I know that a few
people in the senate asking quite openly about
Barham. Because by bringing Nechirvan Barzani with
him , even he didn’t have a position at that point,
it really reinforces the image that the KDP was
acting as Mafioso family rather than a political
party.
Q: is it true
that Nechirvan (Former Prime minister) closed some
deals in Washington in name of KRG ?
Rubin: The
curious thing was how much time he spent in the US
and raised a lot of questions how closed he was with
his uncle Massoud, it seems that deal was made here
to make Nechirvan the vice-president of KRG and
pushing Kosrat Resul out the door.
Q: Lately there
were some publications about the Israeli lobby that
is pushing for a Kurdish state , especially by the
Israeli Ambassador, along with the Jewish lobby in
Washington? Is this just rumor; are you aware of
these activities in Washington?
Rubin: I don’t
have contact with Michael Oren Israeli ambassador,
although I knew him as an academic. There is
certainly some sympathy, the real tragedy is what is
going on KDP especially with Massoud Barzani. The
Kurds politically and diplomatically ahs the best
opportunities in years, just because the American
relationship with Turkey is really bad. It is bad
with Turkish military as well as with premier
Erdogan. So you think that KTG would take advantage
of this but when Massoud Barzani comes to Washington
instead of lobbying effectively for Kurdish state.
What he does, he talks about his family ! From a
Kurdish historical point of view, it is an extreme
malpractice. When it come to Israeli, would they
like this probably yes. Nechirvan Barzani has also
been to Israel although he did secretly in one of
his trip to Washington. I do not think the Israeli
will act until after the elections because they want
to see what the shape of the government in Baghdad
is.
Q: Is Israel’s
foreign policy part of the wider framework of
American foreign policy? Or do they act more or less
on their own?
Rubin: They act
on their own more than you realize, and they are
more favorable eventually to Kurdish independent
than the Americans would be, while the Americans
traditionally have minded what Turkey said just
because of the American relationship with Turkey.
The Israelis are going to be very mindful of what
the Jordanians think because of the Israeli
unofficial partnership with Jordan on many issues.
Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the
American Enterprise Institute (AEI), senior lecturer
at the Naval Postgraduate School, and lecturer at
Johns Hopkins University. His major research area is the Middle
East, with special focus on Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and
Kurdish society. He also writes frequently on
transformative diplomacy and governance issues. At
AEI, Mr. Rubin chaired the "Dissent and Reform in
the Arab World" conference series. He was the lead
drafter of the Bipartisan Policy Center's 2008
report on Iran. In addition to his work at AEI,
several times each month, Mr. Rubin travels to
military bases across the United States and Europe
to instruct senior U.S. Army and Marine officers
deploying to Iraq and Afghanistan on issues relating
to regional state history and politics, Shiism, the
theological basis of extremism, and strategy.
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