State
of Law and Iraqiya blocs appear neck-and-neck as
initial elections results released.
March
17, 2010
Preliminary results from Iraq's national elections
indicate the emergence of a tight two-way race
between Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law
coalition and the Iraqiya bloc led by former premier
Iyad Allawi.
But despite the early success of Maliki, a
nationalist Shia, and Allawi, a secular Shia,
experts aren't ready to assume the two frontrunners
will be automatically nominated for top government
slots.
And with neither coalition expected to win an
outright majority, analysts still predict a period
of political horse-trading among members of the
325-seat parliament.
Poll results representing nearly 80 per cent of the
ballots cast were released this week by Iraq's
Independent High Electoral Commission, IHEC. The
ballot has been marred by fraud allegations, but the
commission said the complaints were not serious
enough to reverse the results. [See:
Election Commission Role Attacked ]
Although final results are not expected to be made
public until the end of the month, IHEC figures show
Allawi’s Iraqiya coalition edging ahead of Maliki's
State of Law list. But the latter is still ahead in
key governorates, including the southern oil-rich
province of Basra and Baghdad, which holds 70
parliamentary seats.
Iraqiya is currently the front-runner in the Sunni
strongholds of Anbar and Mosul, and has a slight
lead over the main Kurdish coalition, the Kurdistani
Alliance, in the contested province of Kirkuk.
Speculation is rife as to how the frontrunners might
co-exist in a new government.
"If you go by the early results, the next prime
minister will be from the State of Law. But it's not
clear if Maliki will have enough support from other
political parties to be prime minister again. Some
members of parliament were his friends yesterday,www.ekurd.netbut
they don’t like him today," said Basra-based
political analyst Qassim Hanoon.
"But at least the government will be formed from
coalitions of different groups. This is a step
towards national unity," he added.
Political analyst Fadel al-Ameri, a political
science professor at Baghdad University, said, "In
general, the success of the big coalitions - State
of Law, Iraqiya and the Kurdish Alliance - was
expected. On the other hand, there were some big
losers in the election who didn't expect to be
defeated. For example, the Iraqi Accord Front headed
by Iyad al-Samaari and the Iraqi Unity coalition
headed by Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani.
"We didn’t expect a significant change in the
political landscape and none came about. The
heavyweight parties will be prevailing in power
throughout the four coming years."
According to IHEC, the Iraqi National Alliance, INA,
is ahead in the largely Shia provinces of Misan and
Qadisiya and is trailing State of Law in Basra. The
Kurdistani Alliance is leading in the three northern
provinces of Erbil, Duhok and Sulaimaniyah.
"The results were no surprise, at least for the
State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance,
because they are substantially Shia and got good
results in the central and southern parts [of Iraq].
The Iraqiya coalition includes many Sunni leaders
and it did well in Diyala and Salahaddin provinces,
and big parts of Baghdad," said Abdul Jabbar al-Hadithi,
professor of international politics at the
University of Mustansiriyah in Baghdad.
"Most voters chose a list because they wanted a
specific leader. Most of the coalitions were
referred to in the street in the name of the leader,
for instance Maliki's list or Allawi's list."
The projected success of State of Law and Iraqiya
lists is seen by some as a possible return to
centralised power, which may put them at odds with
Kurds and many Shia parties that support federalism.
"I think we will see a big change in the political
system of Iraq and see a strong government in
Baghdad. This is where Maliki and Allawi are not as
far apart as some people claim. They have one main
common point which is a strong, central government
and both their lists will be pushing for this in the
government," Yassin Omar, a Sulaimaniyah-based
political analyst, said.
"But still they will face more deadlock as the INA
in the southern part of the country and Kurds in the
north will stand against a strong government in
Baghdad."
After the 2005 vote, post-election political
gridlock lasted for nearly five months and led to a
wave of insurgent violence.
"In the new Iraq, it's almost impossible to form a
government alone. Their country is so divided, no
government can even get started without the
participation of many other groups," said Sozan
Shabab, head of the Kurdistani list in the Kurdistan
Regional Government, KRG.
Some political groups, such as a council
representing 28 parties in Basra, are eager to avoid
a similar scenario this time round.
"We are calling on the government to form the
government as soon as possible because people are
suffering in every aspect of life, especially public
services,” said Ahmed Wahid, member of the Virtue
Party and spokesman of the Basra group. “A delay in
government will just make things worse."
Ali Kareem and Ali Abu Iraq are IWPR-trained
reporters in Baghdad and Basra. IWPR Iraq local
editor Hemin H Lihony contributed to this report
from Sulaimaniyah.
Copyright, respective author or news agency,
Institute for War and Peace Reporting
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