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Patriotic Union of Kurdistan: Revival or
Mere Survival?
26.2.2010
By Ahmed Ali, Arab Reform Bulletin |
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February
26, 2010
While all Iraqi political factions are competing
strongly in lead up to the March 7 parliamentary
elections, in Iraqi Kurdistan the internal
competition is especially intense. In particular,
the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK, the more
secular and less tribal of the two major Iraqi
Kurdish political parties) stands to lose or regain
much. The PUK suffered major losses in the July 2009
provincial elections in its main powerbase of
Sulaimaniyah at the hands of the newly-formed Gorran
(Change) list. This has created the perception that
the PUK has become a junior partner to the Kurdish
Democratic Party (KDP) in the power-sharing
arrangement between the two major factions in the
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Among the many
important implications of the upcoming elections
will be a signal as to whether the PUK can bounce
back or Gorran is here to stay as a new force in
Iraqi politics.
KDP-PUK Relations
For now, the KDP seems to be sticking to its 2005
agreement to share power equitably with the PUK. The
agreement dictates the rotation of senior positions
(i.e. president, prime minister, and speaker of
parliament) between the two parties. The KDP is
behaving this way because it would prefer for the
PUK to win back support from Gorran, which has been
highly critical of the KDP as well as the PUK. There
are also past animosities between Gorran leader
Nawshirwan Mustafa and KDP leader (and President of
Iraqi Kurdistan) Massoud Barzani.
The KDP has shown more subtly that it feels it has
the upper hand with the PUK, however, via a series
of appointments. For example, in the discussions
leading up to the formation of a new KRG, there were
rumors that Prime Minister Barham Salih (PUK) would
not reappoint incumbent Minister of Natural
Resources Ashti Hawrami, given his reported ties to
controversial oil deals. But Hawrami, who is
considered close to KDP leaders, retained his
position despite a public outcry. The reappointment
signified a blow to Salih’s efforts to implement the
PUK electoral slogan, “Renewal and Reform.” The KDP
is reportedly resistant to reappointing PUK Deputy
Leader Kosrat Rasul Ali to the vice presidency of
Iraqi Kurdistan.
The KDP also is flexing its muscles regarding
appointments to the Iraqi central government. The
deputy prime minister position recently vacated by
Salih, for example, has typically gone to the PUK,
but this time it went to Barzani’s Baghdad-based
representative, Rozh Nouri Shawes.
Ongoing PUK-Gorran tensions
The fact that Gorran won 25 percent of Iraqi
Kurdistan parliament seats was a wake-up call for
the PUK. The group took steps to regain voters’
trust in Sulaimaniyah and to reenergize its
political base, including a decision to expel Gorran
members and to establish an internal integrity
commission. PUK leader Jalal Talabani was the first
to disclose his assets. Steps by the KRG, including
the unprecedented disclosure of the budget and the
announcement that 10,000 new KRG jobs will be
created, also have helped the PUK.
Gorran says there is a less attractive side to the
competition: continuous harassment and attacks on
its members in PUK-controlled territory. Gorran
alleges that the office of a one of its
parliamentarians in the town of Koya was burned
down, that salaries of teachers suspected of ties to
Gorran have been reduced, and that security officers
and peshmerga fighters sympathetic to Gorran have
been punished.
Tensions mounted in January 2010 when Talabani
strongly criticized Nawshirwan Mustafa during the
PUK plenum, drawing a strong response from Mustafa
in his newspaper Rozhnama. The media war only
stopped when President Barzani intervened, saying
that “we will never allow for the Kurds’ blood to be
shed by their Kurdish brothers again,” a reference
to the KDP-PUK civil war of the 1990s.
Kurdish Parties in the
Upcoming Elections
The KDP is likely to do better than the PUK in the
March 7 elections, which will strengthen its
position as the senior partner in the KDP-PUK
partnership. The PUK will face stiff competition
from Gorran not only in Sulaimaniyah but in Kirkuk,
where Gorran has been establishing a presence (and
where the PUK is now concentrating resources). In
addition to Gorran, competition from the
northern-based Islamist parties will produce a more
diverse Kurdish representation in Baghdad. Once the
national elections are over, all the parties will
begin to regroup for the Iraqi Kurdistan provincial
elections scheduled for October 2010.
The parliamentary seat allocation has guaranteed the
Iraqi Kurdish parties at least 43 future members of
parliament (out of a total of 325), which will make
them sought-after government partners by either
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law
alliance or its competitor, the Iraqi National
Alliance. Either way, Iraqi Kurdish parties will
lend their support only if they receive guarantees
on the issues of oil revenue,www.ekurd.neteffective
power-sharing mechanisms, Kirkuk, and the status of
the peshmerga. Whatever the electoral results among
Kurdish parties, they will likely continue to speak
with one voice on Kirkuk or other disputed internal
boundaries. Although the three parties’ positions on
these issues differ a bit--Gorran has a more
hard-line stance than the other two--no Kurdish
party wants to be the one that surrendered an inch
of “Kurdistani” land.
Ahmed Ali is a researcher at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy focusing on the
political dynamics of Iraq.
Copyright, respective author or news agency,
Arab Reform Bulletin | carnegieendowment org
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