February 9, 2010
ERBIL-Hewlêr,
Kurdistan region 'Iraq', — Joost R. Hiltermann,
deputy program director for the Middle East and
North Africa at the International Crisis Group (ICG),
spoke with Rudaw about the upcoming Iraqi elections.
He says the decision of the Kurdish opposition group
Gorran [Change] will weaken the Kurdish position in
Baghdad.
Prior his job at the ICG, Hilterman was director of
the Arms Division of Human Rights Watch. In his last
book, A Poisonous Affair: America, Iraq, and the
Gassing of Halabja, he examines the Anfal genocide
carried out by Saddam against the Kurds. He was also
involved in ICG reports on the situation of Kirkuk
and is considered one of the most prominent analysts
of Iraq.
In the last Iraqi elections of 2005, Kurds had two
different lists. This time they have five lists.
Will this affect the Kurdish position? |
Joost Hiltermann, Deputy Program Director for the
Middle East and North Africa, International Crisis
Group |
|
The main problem is
Goran’s decision to run separate from the Kurdistani
Alliance. This will weaken the Kurdish bloc in
parliament and may cost it some positions. It is
also questionably whether Goran will support Mam
Jalal for a return to the presidency. If they don’t,
the Kurds may lose that position altogether.
In general the Kurds do not have a clear message for
the southern Iraqi cities Baghdad and Basra. What
can the Kurds do, so that they can get Arab votes?
If you want to win over the Arabs, you should make
clear that you intend to remain part of Iraq and
play the Iraqi game – and really mean it. That’s the
only thing that really matters to them. That’s why
Kirkuk is so important. They see the Kurds’ attempt
to win it as laying down a building block toward
Kurdish independence.
The Change list movement (Gorran) claims to have a
new motto. But they aren’t very active in Baghdad
and try to gain votes from the Iraqi Shia by talking
positive about Imam Ali. Do you think this will be
positive for the results for the Kurds in Baghdad
and the other cities in south?
We will have to see…. Arabs politicians may try to
woo Goran away from the Kurdistani Alliance. It may
get votes in the south. But I think it will remain
limited. After all, Goran takes the same line on
strategic issues as the Kurdistani Alliance. They
are different mostly on internal Kurdish issues.
Among all those tensions, do you think if the Kurds
remain in power it will guarantee protection for
Iraqi democracy?
Do you mean: if the Kurds remain part of the
government in Baghdad? (They are not in power now;
they are sharing it.) If that’s what you mean: If
the Kurds genuinely intend to stay inside Iraq and
are not trying to use their power in Baghdad to
facilitate their departure from Iraq sometime in the
future, then their presence in Baghdad will be an
important check on any undemocratic tendencies that
other parties might have.
In 1980s there were nearly one million Shia Kurds (Fayli)
living in Baghdad and they controlled most of
trading centers in Baghdad. They were accused of
supporting Iran and kicked out by Saddam to Iran.
Currently the Kurds do not have a lot of support in
Baghdad. Although there are many Kurds there. What’s
the reason?
Many Fayli Kurds seem to vote for the Ittilaaf or
perhaps for Maliki; they voted for the Ittilaaf in
2005. As for Sunni Kurds, who might be more likely
to vote for Kurdish parties in the north,www.ekurd.netmany
left to Kurdistan or abroad during the civil war in
Baghdad, and they haven’t come back. A lot of
Baghdadi Kurds are secular and perhaps vote for
Allawi.
It's very difficult to put a scale on Iraqi
election, because since 1987 in KRG and since 1997
in other parts of Iraq, there hasn't been any
census. Do you think this election will change the
map of Iraqi political parties?
It should, and I think it will. I certainly hope so,
because it would be healthy.
Do you think the refusal of some hundreds of Sunni
Arab candidates in the election process like Salih
Mutlaq, once again make Sunnis turn to Al-Qaeda and
cause more violence in Iraq?
If a significant number of candidates is excluded,
especially if they represent one coalition or one
community, their followers are bound to respond,
including with violence. This would be extremely
unfortunate and should be avoided.
From the surface it seems the political parties
won't be focusing on sectarian divide anymore, but
don't you think the people still will vote on the
base of sectarianism?
Many people still do, unfortunately. Not just
sectarian, but also ethnic. How many Kurds vote for
non-Kurdish parties?
Copyright, respective
author or news agency, rudaw net
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