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Kurdish-Arab power struggle leads to calls
for Iraq census delay
30.8.2009
By Ron Synovitz
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August 30, 2009
Work on a new Iraq census was to begin in October.
But Iraqi officials say they may postpone the
project amid concerns it could lead to violence
north of Baghdad where Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomans
live.
At the heart of the problem is a power struggle
between Baghdad and Kurdish regional leaders over
who will control disputed oil-rich areas in the
northern part of the country that could be included
in the autonomous Kurdistan region.
A proposed election law also could be affected if
the census is delayed, as well as the disbursement
of budget funds to the semi-autonomous Kurdish
region in the north.
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Iraqi Kurdish demonstrators in Erbil protest the
passage of a bill delaying the census in the
disputed region of Kirkuk |
Iraq's last census was
in 1997 under the rule of Saddam Hussein. But it did
not cover the semi-autonomous areas in the north
that have been under Kurdish control since the first
Gulf War in 1991. The last census to cover those
areas was in 1987.
Kurdish leaders claim the northern city of Kirkuk as
an ancestral capital. They want the oil-rich
district around Kirkuk to be added to their
semi-autonomous northern region. They also have
claimed some parts of Nineveh Province that are not
currently within the enclave.
Ethnic Tensions
But many ethnic Turkish Turkomans and Arabs who live
in those areas are opposed to being put under
Kurdish rule.
Planning Minister Ali Baban, the Baghdad official
charged with overseeing the census, says it was Arab
and Turkoman political groups in Kirkuk and Nineveh
that raised concerns about possible violence if the
census goes forward:
"Technically, we are very ready to do the census and
we have completed all requirements for the census,"
Baban says.
"But we are listening to concerns and fears and
reservations from some political parties about the
census -- especially in Kirkuk and Nineveh --
because of political conditions and relations
between the components. Such reservations may force
us to pause in the implementation of the census and
postpone it to another time."
Mahdi al-Alak, who heads Iraq's Central Organization
for Statistics and Information Technology, has
proposed delaying the census until either April or
October of next year. He says the Iraqi government
will decide later which date is best.
Luay Shabaneh, the United Nations' chief adviser on
the Iraqi census, says it would be technically
feasible to start census work between April and
October of next year. But he says political
bickering could cause further delays.
"We need to look at the census in a balanced way.
The census is not only [about] the Kurd-Arab
distribution [of political and financial power]. The
most important message that we have to deliver to
the politicians is not to politicize the census
because, if we do so, you will not be able to solve
problems," Shabaneh says.
"Political problems are solved by negotiations and
not by numbers. Therefore, hiding the political
problems behind the census will only harm
development -- which touches the lives of the
public."
'What Is Your Mother
Tongue?'
There is no census question that specifically asks
about ethnicity. There also are no questions
specifying whether a person is a Shi'ite or Sunni
Muslim.
Joost Hiltermann, the deputy program director of the
International Crisis Group's Middle East and North
Africa program, says that the census question with a
potentially "incendiary" impact asks each Iraqi to
name their mother tongue.
"For Iraqis, this comes down to [a question about
ethnicity.] If you say that your mother tongue is
Kurdish, that means you are a Kurd. It, to them,
amounts to an election or a referendum." Hiltermann
says.
"If you know that you have 'X' number of this ethnic
group in a [particular] location, this means that
you are entitled to 'X' amount of power
proportionally in this same place."
That makes the census very important in a province
like Kirkuk, where the largest group in the census
has historically won the right to govern. In the
current situation, the census could have bearing on
whether Kirkuk falls within the territory of the
semi-autonomous Kurdistan region or not.
Hiltermann says some groups stand to gain political
power, or at least hold on to their current power,
by delaying the census:
"There are parties that could benefit. There are
certainly the groups in Kirkuk who fear Kurdish
domination and who want to delay this -- because
they accuse the Kurds of demographic manipulation
after 2003 by bringing in Kurds who are not
originally from Kirkuk and who could be counted as
Kirkukis in the census," Hiltermann says
"And the same could happen in other disputed
territories -- including in Mosul."
Money Questions
A new census also could alter budgetary allocations
to the Kurdistan regional government from Baghdad.
Some Arab lawmakers have argued that disbursements
should be limited to 12 percent of Iraq's budget.
But Kurdish officials have reached a deal under
which they will continue to receive 17 percent of
the budget until a proper census is conducted.
"Every year when the budget is drafted in Iraq,
there is a dispute over how much everyone should
get. Now there is an agreement in principle that
every governorate and region should get an amount of
budget allocation that is proportional to its
population size. For this you need a census."
Hiltermann explains.
"So the deal is, in fact, the Kurds will continue to
receive 17 percent of the annual budget until a
census is held that shows what the true size of the
Kurdish population is inside the Kurdistan region.
The share that the Kurds currently have -- 17
percent -- might well go down [after another
census]. But if you listen to the Kurds,www.ekurd.net
it would go up."
Default Electoral Law
Meanwhile, a proposed electoral law under debate in
the Iraqi parliament also would need data from the
new census to determine the distribution of
political power in Iraq's different provinces.
Under the proposed law, the way legislators are
elected would change from the current "closed list"
system, which allows political parties to assign
individual spots on their party lists, to an "open
list" system. Under the open list, voters would
choose specific candidates from individual
constituencies.
"Some of the parties that did very well four years
ago have no interest in changing the electoral law
and the electoral system. They would want to
maintain a closed-list system, which brought them to
victory last time," Hiltermann says.
"What is being discussed in the new electoral law
is, in fact, an open-list system that would
basically take the fate of the election results out
of the hands of the parties that have controlled the
government for now."
Analysts conclude that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki
is more in favor of an open list because he thinks
it will serve his purposes for now.
But parties like the Shi'ite Islamic Supreme Council
of Iraq, Kurdish parties, and others favor the old
electoral law. Delaying the census would be a way to
prevent the new electoral law from being implemented
-- leaving the closed-list system in place by
default.
Balay Simira of RFE/RL's Radio Free Iraq
contributed to this story.
Copyright, respective author or news agency,
rferl org
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