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Iraqi election faces inevitable
postponement
27.11.2009
By Kholoud Ramzi
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November 27, 2009
It is no longer difficult to
predict the postponement of Iraq’s upcoming
parliamentary elections after controversial
amendments were introduced to the country’s election
law by parliament in response to the veto of the
first draft law by Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi.
Rather than address al-Hashimi’s concerns that Iraqi
refugees were not sufficiently represented,
parliament chose to revert to 2005 Trade Ministry
figures, plus a 2.8 percent annual population
growth, instead of the 2009 Trade Ministry figures,
as the basis for voter numbers. As a result,
Sunni-majority provinces have seen their total seat
numbers reduced. No changes were made for refugee
representation.
Ninawa’s seat numbers have now been reduced from 31
to 28; Anbar from 14 to 13; Diyala from 13 to 12;
Salahuddin has also lost one seat. All are
Sunni-majority provinces. Kurds, meanwhile, gained
by adding three new seats to the Kurdish province of
Sulaimaniyah.
Many analysts say al-Hashimi was trying to secure
more Sunni seats because a majority of Iraq refugees
are Sunni and that this step by parliament therefore
virtually ensures a second veto.
Al-Hashimi, who has suggested as much, is now facing
strong pressures from both parliament and Sunnis.
Parliament accuses al-Hashimi of blocking the law
for narrow partisan interests. Sunnis, meanwhile,
blame him for the decrease in the number of Sunni
seats saying he made a strategic mistake by vetoing
the first law.
“[Al-Hashimi] is seriously considering blocking the
law, not because the amendments were not up to
expectations but also because they will result in
less number of seats in provinces where the Renewal
bloc [al-Hashimi’s list] seeks to achieve victory,”
Abdul Karim al-Samari, a Renewal list MP told Niqash.
“It seems that the amendments introduced were a kind
of punishment to al-Hashimi because he vetoed the
election law,” said al-Samari, adding that “they
were not aimed at ensuring justice and fairness
because they resulted in a less numbers of Sunni
seats.”
“A veto against the law has become inevitable,” he
said.
Parallel to these developments, the Independent High
Electoral Commission (IHEC) has decided to freeze
all election-related procedures waiting for a final
decision from parliament on the election law. As a
result,www.ekurd.neteven
if an election law was to be passed, it is now
nearly impossible that the election will be held by
the constitutionally mandated limit of the end of
January 2010. IHEC says it needs at least 60 days to
prepare for the elections.
Ayad al-Samarrai, the speaker of parliament,
confirmed Wednesday that elections will have to be
postponed. In a press statement al-Samarrai said
that “elections will not be held before the end of
February or the beginning of March. If the law is
blocked again, elections might not be held until the
end of March.”
According to Judge Qassem al-Abboudi, a member of
the IHEC, the holding of elections on in January
“has become more of a dream rather than a reality.
Elections will be implemented according to a
countdown exactly 60 days after the passing of the
law,” he said. “Given that the law will not be
endorsed before December 2009, if approved by the
presidential council, it is clear that elections
will not be held before February 2010.”
Al-Samarrai, the parliament speaker, has now warmed
of a constitutional vacuum resulting from the
postponement of elections and has asked the Prime
Ministry to guard the constitution and to fill the
vacuum which will be created when parliament’s term
comes to an end on March 15, 2010. The postponement
of elections requires a constitutional amendment to
extend the government and parliament’s current term.
If vetoed by al-Hashimi once more the election law
will again return to parliament. However, the
constitution stipulates that a law can only be
vetoed by the Presidency Council twice and that
parliament then has the ability to pass the law by a
simple three fifths majority.
Nonetheless, parliament remains divided along
sectarian lines and it remains debatable whether it
will be able to muster the 60 percent needed to pass
the law. Even if it does secure this threshold it
will certainly only do so along sectarian lines,
possibly provoking new communitarian tensions.
Some politicians, as well as the UN and the U.S
government, are now seeking a compromise solution
which will avoid a second al-Hashimi veto. Deputy
Prime Minister Rafi al-Issawi, known as a moderate,
commented that “it is important to reach a solution
to the crisis and an agreement which will prevent a
second veto.”
Even so, Iraq is once again expecting the worse.
Copyright, respective
author or news agency,
niqash org
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