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Kirkuk referendum likely to be delayed
13.9.2007
By Sumedha Senanayake
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September
13, 2007
Kirkuk, Iraq's border with Kurdistan region,
-- Since the ratification of the Iraqi Constitution
in 2005, Iraq's Kurds have viewed the issue of the
Kirkuk referendum as a "red line." They have held
steadfast that Article 140 of the constitution be
implemented to determine the political future of the
oil-rich governorate, which is estimated to hold 6
percent of the world's oil reserves.
Article 140 calls for a three-step process, starting
with "normalization," which aims to reverse the
Arabization policies of the former regime, when
thousands of Kurds and non-Arabs were driven from
Kirkuk or were relocated and replaced with Arabs
from central and southern Iraq. This is to be
followed by a census and then a referendum --
scheduled to be held at the end of 2007 -- to
determine whether Kirkuk Governorate will be
incorporated into the semi-autonomous Kurdistan
region.
The Kurds have stood firm in their desire to see
Article 140 implemented and hope that Kirkuk will
become part of the Kurdistan region. Indeed, Massoud
Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan region, has
warned that "if Article 140 is not implemented, then
there will be a real civil war."
However, there are clear indications that the
referendum may not take place as previously planned.
The Firat news agency reported on September 10 that
the Kurdish Alliance had agreed to postpone the
referendum until May 2008. The alliance, which
unites the two most powerful Kurdish parties, was
clear to stress that the postponement was due
entirely to technical reasons and not political
pressure exerted by opponents of Article 140.
Signs Point To Delay
Rumors of a delay have been circulating for weeks.
On August 16, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker
said it seemed highly improbable that the referendum
would take place by the end of the year, citing the
lack of preparation, sectarian wrangling, and missed
deadlines.
The original timetable called for the census to be
conducted by the end of July, but the normalization
process is far from complete. In fact, the
normalization process continues to be bogged down by
technical problems and internal bickering. The Iraqi
government on August 2 appointed Ra'id Fahmi as the
new chairman of the committee charged with carrying
out the implementation of Article 140, after the
former chairman, Hashim al-Shabali, resigned.
The committee continues to wrestle with the
sensitive issue of how to implement the
normalization process, which inevitably involves
removing Arab setters who were brought in during
Saddam Hussein's Arabization program. While the
committee has steadfastly denied that Arabs would be
forcibly relocated, it adopted a controversial plan
in early February to entice Arab families to
voluntarily leave Kirkuk in exchange for a
compensation package of approximately $15,000 and a
plot of land to return to in their town of origin.
However, some critics of the plan describe it as
tantamount to gerrymandering ahead of the
referendum, while others call it another form of
forced migration. The Sunni-led Muslim Scholars
Association issued a statement on September 11
warning that the plan would harm the integrity of
Iraq and lead to its eventual partitioning. "The
conspiracy to divide Iraq enters a grave phase with
the occupation puppet government officially
encouraging through financial incentives, to expel
Kirkuk's Arabs and facilitate their transfer to
other regions of Iraq," the statement said.
Finally, there is the specter of violence among the
Kurds, Turkomans, and Arabs who all have a stake in
Kirkuk. There is a fear that holding the referendum
in the ethnically mixed governorate could lead to
the type of sectarian bloodshed that has gripped
Baghdad and central Iraq.
Oil Deal Sends A Message
Considering the circumstances, the Kurdish regional
government (KRG) may have had no choice but to
acknowledge that a postponement of the referendum
was inevitable. However, the anticipated
postponement of the referendum may have emboldened
the KRG to sign a production-sharing contract on
September 8 with the U.S.-based Hunt Oil Company and
Impulse Energy Corporation to conduct petroleum
exploration in kURDISTAN REGION (orthern Iraq).
The deal was roundly denounced by Iraqi Oil Minister
Husayn al-Shahristani, who described it as illegal,
since it was not approved by the central government
in Baghdad. The KRG previously signed several
contracts with foreign firms, all which have been
condemned by al-Shahristani and the Baghdad
government. This was the first contract the KRG
signed with a foreign corporation since passing its
own hydrocarbons law in early August.
The new oil contracts were certain to roil the
Baghdad government, which has yet to pass its own
oil and gas law after nearly a year of negotiations.
While there is no doubt that the KRG was in
negotiations with the two foreign firms, the timing
of the deal sends a message that the Kurds are
determined to control the resources in their region,
in light of the Kirkuk referendum postponement.
Indeed, the postponement of the Kirkuk referendum,
particularly after Kurdish leaders were so insistent
that it be conducted by the end this year, was bound
to create a certain degree of anxiety among the
Kurds. What the Kurds worry about most is that the
delay may become an open-ended postponement, which
may leave the status of Kirkuk languishing
indefinitely.
rferl org
* Kirkuk city is a Kurdistani city and it lies just
south border of the Kurdistan autonomous region and
it is not under the full control of Kurdistan
Regional Government administration, its population
is a mix of majority Kurds and minority of Arabs,
Turkmen.
The former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein forced
over 250,000 Kurdish residents to give up their
homes to Arabs in the 1970s, to "Arabize" the city
and the region's oil industry.
Based on Iraq's Constitution a referendum is to be
held in late 2007 to decide whether the oil-rich
Kurdish province should be annexed to the safe
semiautonomous Kurdistan region in Iraq's north.
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