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Study sees minimum risk in getting almost
all US troops out of Iraq in a year
29.8.2007
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August 29, 2007
WASHINGTON, -- Most U.S. troops can be
withdrawn safely from Iraq in roughly one year and
the Bush administration should begin planning the
pullout immediately, according to a study released
Wednesday.
With the exception mostly of two brigades of about
8,000 troops who would remain in the touchy
Kurdistan region in the north for a year, trying to
guard against conflict with Turkey, the U.S. troops
would be moved to Kuwait initially, the study by the
Center for American Progress, says.
There a brigade and an air wing of some 70 to 80
planes would remain in the Persian Gulf country
indefinitely.
Meanwhile, the withdrawal would give the United
States leeway to add 20,000 troops to the 25,000 in
Afghanistan trying to counter Taliban and al-Qaida
forces.
How fast the troops depart from Iraq and most of
them go home depends largely on how much essential
equipment goes along with the withdrawal, according
to the study.
The troops could be out of Iraq in no more than
three months if the equipment is left behind, a
course not proposed in the study.
On the other hand, "if the United States does not
set a specific timetable, our military forces and
our overall national security will remain hostage to
events on the ground in Iraq," the report said.
The governor of Erbil province, site of the
Kurdistan regional capital, agrees. "If the U.S.
leaves, we must leave with them," says Nawzad Hadi
Mawlood. "It will be a tragedy if they go."
"It will be a disaster," says Muhammed Tofiq of
Wusha, a Kurdish research organization. He points
out that the Kurdistan Regional Government, for
example, now depends on Baghdad for 96 percent of
its annual budget. While most Iraqis agree that the
central government is barely functioning now, there
is at least a structure in place that might allow
for political reconciliation and a cessation of
sectarian violence.
Even worse, an all-out civil war could compel a
withdrawal of the U.S. troops, now numbering about
160,000, in three months' time, which would force
leaving valuable equipment behind and preventing
control of an orderly exodus, the report said.
The Center for American Progress describes itself as
a "progressive think tank." It is headed by John D.
Podesta, a former chief of staff to President Bill
Clinton.
The Bush administration is expected to disclose next
month how large a withdrawal it contemplates and
over what period of time. No consensus on when to
begin and how deeply to cut has developed.
Lawrence Korb, a former Pentagon official who
specialized in manpower and logistics there from
1981 to 1985, said in an interview: "It is essential
that the military begin planning for a phased
withdrawal from Iraq now so it can be safely
completed within 10 to 12 months."
Korb, one of the authors of the report, said
withdrawal proposals have varied from three months
to four years.
The center's recommendation for withdrawal over a
period of 10 to 12 months is based on consultation
with military planners and logistics experts, the
report said.
It proposed removing two combat brigades from Iraq a
month while simultaneously reducing a proportional
number of non-combat support personnel.
If the plan is adopted and U.S. combat units
deployed in Iraq were not replaced as they went home
the Bush administration could conclude the
withdrawal by the end of next July "and with much
more care than they did the invasion and
occupation," the report said.
"The time for half-measures and experiments is over;
it is now time for a logistically sound strategic
redeployment," the report concluded.
AP
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