|
US intelligence warns: Iraqi leadership
precarious
24.8.2007
|
|
|
|
August 24, 2007
WASHINGTON ,-- Iraq's government will become
more precarious in the months ahead and a drawdown
of US forces could increase levels of sectarian
violence, US spy agencies said in a grim report
Thursday.
The new intelligence estimate also predicted that
security improvements made over the past six months
will erode if the US military narrows its mission to
supporting the Iraqi security forces and fighting
Al-Qaeda.
"The IC (intelligence community) assesses that the
Iraqi government will become more precarious over
the next six to 12 months because of criticism by
other members of the major Shia coalition" as well
as Sunni and Kurdish parties, the new US
intelligence estimate warned.
The declassified judgments of the assessment were
released by the Director for National Intelligence,
and came amid mounting frustration inside the US
administration at the lack of political progress in
Iraq.
Maliki's attempts to bridge Iraq's ethnic and
sectarian divides have so far failed, with 17 of his
40-strong cabinet having resigned, and daily
bloodshed taking its toll on ordinary Iraqis.
Unless there is "a fundamental shift in factors
driving Iraqi political and security developments,"
the political compromises needed for "sustained
security, long-term political progress, and economic
development are unlikely to emerge," the assessment
said.
Iraqi leaders who are already "unable to govern
effectively" will struggle to achieve national
political reconciliation, it warned.
The report did conclude that since its assessment in
January there have been "measurable but uneven"
improvements in Iraq's security in the past months,
but said the "level of overall violence, including
attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains
high."
US President George W. Bush sent an extra 30,000
troops to Iraq early in the year boosting US forces
on the ground to 160,000 in a bid to halt the
sectarian violence in Baghdad and surrounding Anbar
province.
Iraqi security forces have performed adequately but
have not improved enough to conduct major operations
independently of the coalition, the report said.
"We assess that changing the mission of coalition
forces from a primarily counter insurgency and
stabilization role to a primary combat support role
for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to
prevent (Al-Qaeda in Iraq) from establishing a safe
haven would erode security gains achieved thus far,"
it warned.
The conclusions could be used by the Bush
administration to justify prolonging the surge,
despite the war's growing unpopularity here and
mounting calls for a troop withdrawal.
Perceptions of a US pullout "probably will encourage
factions anticipating a power vacuum to seek local
security solutions that could intensify sectarian
violence and intra-sectarian competition," the
report said.
"At the same time, fearing a coalition withdrawal,
some tribal elements and Sunni groups probably will
continue to seek accommodation with the coalition to
strengthen themselves for a post-coalition security
environment," it said.
The White House said the intelligence assessment
shows that "our strategy has improved the security
environment in Iraq, but we still face very tough
challenges ahead."
Maliki has so far failed to deliver any major pieces
of legislation aimed at promoting reconciliation
between Sunnis and Shiites.
Bush this week expressed his frustration with the
lack of progress, only to reaffirm his support for
Maliki the following day, calling Maliki a "good man
with a difficult job."
The intelligence estimate also concluded that
although the Sunni resistance to the Al-Qaeda in
Iraq group has expanded in the past months, that has
not yet translated into broad support for the
government or willingness to work with Shiites.
Shiite leaders also fear the Sunnis will ultimately
choose to side with the armed opponents of the
Shiite-led government, the assessment said.
"Bottom up" security initiatives among Sunnis
focused on combating Al-Qaeda offer the best
prospect for improved security over the next year,
but only if the Iraqi government supports them, it
concluded.
The update, which represents the consensus of 16 US
intelligence agencies, is called "Prospects for
Iraq's Stability: Some Progress but Political
Reconciliation Elusive."
It comes just weeks before General David Petraeus,
the US commander in Iraq, and US Ambassador Ryan
Crocker offer their own assessment of whether US
strategy in a report due on September 15.
AFP
Top |
Kurd Net
does not take credit for and is not responsible for the content of news
information on this page
|
® 