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Turkish army on Iraqi Kurdistan border is just
'saber-rattling'
19.7.2007 |
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July
19, 2007
Recent statements by Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar
Zebari concerning a buildup of Turkish troops along
the country's border have heightened international
fears that a Turkish military incursion into Iraq's
northern Kurdistan region is imminent.
Zebari, in a press conference in Baghdad on July 9,
said
Turkey had 140,000 soldiers
along the border and that his government stood
"against any interference or breach of Iraqi
sovereignty from neighboring states."
Over the weekend, Zebari reiterated these concerns
in a phone conversation with Turkish Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul, while indicating that Iraq
was willing to hold multiparty talks on the presence
of roughly 3,000 Kurdistan Worker Party, or PKK,
guerrillas in Kurdistan (northern Iraq).
Turkey has threatened to move into Iraqi territory
to conduct military operations against the PKK, a
paramilitary organization responsible for numerous
attacks against civilian and military targets in
Turkey since 1984 that now operates with relative
impunity out of the remote Kandil mountain region of
Iraqi Kurdistan.
Responding to an upsurge in PKK activity - this year
has already seen the deaths of 67 Turkish soldiers
and 110 rebels in sporadic fighting - Gul recently
said on television, in reference to a possible
Turkish military strike, "We have decided how to
act, everything is clear. We know what to do and
when to do it."
To date, the Turkish military has restricted its
activity in the region to periodic shelling of PKK
positions and limited cross-border raids. But
concern that such activity is a prelude to a larger
invasion that could contribute to further
instability across Iraq has led both US Defense
Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice to issue stern warnings to Gul not
to act precipitously.
But according to officials in Iraqi Kurdistan, the
likelihood of a full-scale Turkish invasion is too
remote to warrant such fears. Many see the troop
buildup instead as a move by the military to
influence domestic Turkish politics and to force a
favorable outcome in Sunday's national election.
"Turkish concerns are there and are genuine. The PKK
is a menace," said Safeen Dizayee, a senior official
in the Kurdistan Democratic Party, one of the two
major parties comprising the Kurdistan Regional
Government. "But much has been used for internal
politics. It's saber-rattling rhetoric."
Dizayee's skepticism of Turkish motives is widely
shared among Iraqi Kurds. According to many,
threatening to attack the PKK in Kurdistan (northern
Iraq) has proven a powerful propaganda tool for the
Turkish military, which is struggling to maintain
influence in a government dominated by the
Islamic-leaning Justice and Development Party.
With parliamentary elections set for Sunday, they
argue, the military has pushed security concerns to
the forefront in order to reinforce an image of the
Justice and Development Party as indecisive and soft
on terrorism and to benefit the nationalist and
secular parties with which they have close ties.
"Turkey is at a crossroads," said Bilal Wahab, an
activist and writer in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi
Kurdistan. "The military is losing and the military
wants something to regain influence. All they have
is the PKK."
Gareth Jenkins, a journalist in Istanbul and an
expert on Turkish military affairs, agreed that the
army was actively encouraging an image of itself as
tough on terrorism as a means to retain influence in
domestic politics. "The military has to position
itself to maintain public prestige, which is its
main source of political leverage, in case it needs
it against the [Justice and Development Party]
government. It cannot afford to lose this prestige,"
he said.
Jenkins also said that by threatening to invade
Iraq, the military hoped to pressure the Kurdistan
Regional Government and the American military into
taking an active role in dismantling PKK camps and
offices there. "Turkey is rightly very frustrated
that the US hasn't done anything against the PKK at
all," he said. "There is a feeling in the military
that if they take [the threat of invasion]
seriously, then maybe they'll crack down a little on
the PKK and put pressure on the Kurds."
It remains unlikely, however, that the US - bogged
down with a major insurgency to the south - would
commit significant forces to battling the PKK.
Tactically, a large-scale incursion into Iraqi
Kurdistan would be a complicated and risky operation
for the Turkish military. The mountainous region of
northern Iraq where the PKK camps are located is
notoriously difficult to control and could prove a
nightmare for major counterinsurgency operations.
"I don't believe Turkish troops would cross the
border," said Nawzad Hadi Mawlood, governor of
Erbil. "They will get lost. Kurdistan will turn into
a graveyard for Turkish troops. Neither us [the
Kurdistan Regional Government] nor they can evict
the PKK because of where they are in the mountains."
Wolfango Piccoli, a Turkey expert at the Eurasia
Group, a political-risk consulting firm based in New
York, agreed. The ease with which PKK forces could
flee into the mountains when they see Turkish troops
cross the border and regroup when these troops
leave, he said, make an effective military incursion
into Iraq nearly impossible.
"From a logistical point of view, if Turkey decides
to invade, it will only take a few days to cross the
border. But militarily, they know an operation like
that would make no sense."
Piccoli said that a major PKK terrorist attack in
western Turkey that caused significant causalities
could force Turkey to invade, despite the
difficulties of doing so. Barring such an attack,
however, it is unlikely that Turkey will act before
Sunday's elections. In order for the military to
invade, the Turkish parliament would have to convene
and pass a resolution granting their support. But
with parliament in recess, it is unlikely any action
will be taken. A change in power could see added
pressure to pass such a resolution, Piccoli said,
but the tactical realities will remain the same and
will continue to discourage a Turkish invasion.
"If the MHP [National Action Party, a nationalist,
pro-military party] obtains seats in parliament,
more pressure will be placed on passing the
resolution allowing the Turkish military to carry
out a cross-border incursion targeting the PKK's
bases in northern Iraq. But there will probably only
be lots of rhetoric from all the actors concerned
and not much change on the ground," he said.
jpost com
** Ankara is anxious to prevent the emergence of a
Kurdish state in Kurdistan region (northern Iraq),
fearing this could fan separatism among its own
large Kurdish population in southeast Turkey .
Kurdish politician says, Turkey is using a Kurdish
separatist PKK rebel group as an excuse to invade
Kurdistan region (Iraq) to prevent the establishment
of Kurdistan state in the Kurdish autonomous region
in (northern Iraq).
** The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan" Southeast
Turkey.
Kurds are not recognized as an official minority in
Turkey and are denied rights granted to other
minority groups. Under EU pressure, Turkey recently
granted Kurds limited rights for broadcasts and
education in the Kurdish language, but critics say
the measures do not go far enough.
Others estimate over 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
Turkey is home to over 25 million ethnic Kurds, some
of whom openly sympathise with the Kurdish PKK for a
Kurdish homeland in the country's mainly Kurdish
southeast of Turkey.
Before August 2002, the Turkish government placed
severe restrictions on the use of Kurdish language,
prohibiting the language in education and broadcast
media.
The Kurdish alphabet is still not recognized
in Turkey, and use of the Kurdish letters X, W, Q
which do not exist in the Turkish
alphabet has led to judicial persecution in 2000 and
2003
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan
but unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag
is banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it
is a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan ( Kurdistan-Turkey)
wikipedia
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