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Turkey incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan will
not be a picnic, could backfire
11.7.2007 |
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July
11, 2007
Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul
said
Ankara had a plan
in place for military incursions into Kurdistan
(northern Iraq) to destroy Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)
bases there.
His statements were the latest in a series of
increasingly aggressive comments coming out of
Turkey,
warning the U.S.
and the Iraqi government that if they do not curb
PKK activities in Kurdistan region (northern Iraq),
Turkey will have no choice but to carry out
unilateral military action.
Iraqi Kurdish officials have reacted to the Turkish
warnings and the massing of Turkish forces along the
border with increasing alarm. Iraq's Kurdish Foreign
Minister
Hoshyar Zebari issued a
statement on July 9 expressing his
deep concern over intelligence estimates of more
than 140,000 Turkish troops currently stationed on
the border. He urged restraint and called for a
diplomatic solution to the tensions.
The Pentagon disputed the numbers cited by Zebari,
while Turkey had no comment. Zebari may have
exaggerated intentionally, to focus greater
international media attention on the Turkish threats
in the hope of forcing Turkey to back down. In any
case, it shows that he takes the Turkish threats
seriously.
Setting Dangerous Precedent
The possibility of a Turkish military operation in
Kurdistan region (northern Iraq) has created
concerns among the Kurdish leadership that it may
lead to clashes between Turkish forces and the
Kurdish peshmerga forces (Kurdistan national guard).
This could then mushroom into a wider regional
conflict.
"An incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan will not be a
picnic...if the incursion is into areas inside Iraqi
Kurdistan -- into the cities and towns -- then there
will definitely be clashes between the peshmerga
forces (Kurdistan national guard) and the Turkish
Army, and this is something we do not wish for at
all," Iraqi President Jalal Talabani told Al-Arabiyah
satellite television on July 6.
Talabani's warning underscores the dilemma Turkey
faces in a major cross-border operation into
Kurdistan region (northern Iraq). If Turkish forces
do enter Iraq and engage PKK fighters, it unclear
how long they will remain, and it may take a
significant amount of time to drive the PKK forces
out of their mountain strongholds.
Consequently, the longer Turkish forces remain
inside Iraq, the greater the chances that they will
clash with the peshmerga, who would see any
incursion as a violation of their territory. Indeed,
after being oppressed for decades under the former
regime of Saddam Hussein, the Kurds do not take
their newfound semi-autonomy for granted. Fighting
in Iraqi Kurdistan would also open an additional
military front that U.S. and Iraqi forces are
ill-equipped to deal with at this time.
In addition, a Turkish incursion based on the
principle of fighting terrorism sets a dangerous
precedent for Iraq's neighbors. Iran, Syria, and
Saudi Arabia, who are widely believed to be involved
in Iraq behind the scenes, may be emboldened to
follow suit. Once Turkey opens the proverbial
Pandora's box by conducting cross-border operations
into Iraq, Iraq's other neighbors may well argue
that they are entitled to do the same in the name of
national security.
Drawn Deeper Into Iraq
The opening of a new military front in the north
would undoubtedly destabilize a region that has been
a zone of relative peace in Iraq. Not only would
Turkish forces face the danger of being sucked into
Iraq's numerous and violent conflicts, it would also
provide Al-Qaeda in Iraq with an opportunity to gain
a stronger foothold in the region by stoking the
considerable ethnic and sectarian tensions between
the Kurds, Turkomans, and Arabs.
Further attacks by Al-Qaeda against the Iraqi
Turkoman population, similar to the July 7 bombing
in the northern town of Tuz Khurmato, may draw
Turkish forces deeper into the conflict as they face
pressure to protect their ethnic brethren.
Armed confrontations may result between all the
parties involved, with Al-Qaeda carrying out attacks
aimed at perpetuating a similar cycle of violence
that engulfed Baghdad and the surrounding areas for
a year and a half. Turkey could be drawn ever deeper
into in Iraq's internal conflicts, and find it ever
more difficult to extricate itself.
While Turkey may believe that a military incursion
into Kurdistan region (northern Iraq) will improve
its national security, the resulting fallout may
actually end up not only making Turkey less secure,
but destabilizing the entire region as well.
rferl org
Ankara is anxious to prevent the emergence of a
Kurdish state in Kurdistan region (northern Iraq),
fearing this could fan separatism among its own
large Kurdish population in southeast Turkey .
Kurdish politician says, Turkey is using a Kurdish
separatist PKK rebel group as an excuse to invade
Kurdistan region (Iraq) to prevent the establishment
of Kurdistan state in the Kurdish autonomous region
in (northern Iraq).
** The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan" Southeast
Turkey.
Kurds are not recognized as an official minority in
Turkey and are denied rights granted to other
minority groups. Under EU pressure, Turkey recently
granted Kurds limited rights for broadcasts and
education in the Kurdish language, but critics say
the measures do not go far enough.
Others estimate over 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
Turkey is home to over 25 million ethnic Kurds, some
of whom openly sympathise with the Kurdish PKK for a
Kurdish homeland in the country's mainly Kurdish
southeast of Turkey.
Before August 2002, the Turkish government placed
severe restrictions on the use of Kurdish language,
prohibiting the language in education and broadcast
media.
The Kurdish alphabet is still not recognized
in Turkey, and use of the Kurdish letters X, W, Q
which do not exist in the Turkish
alphabet has led to judicial persecution in 2000 and
2003
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan
but unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag
is banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it
is a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan ( Kurdistan-Turkey)
wikipedia
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