|
Turkey, countdown begins to crossing into Iraqi
Kurdistan
6.7.2007
Analysis by Jacques Couvas |
|
|
|
July
6, 2007
ANKARA, -- The button of the stopwatch
counting down the invasion of Kurdistan region
(Northern Iraq) by the Turkish army was probably
pressed on Tuesday, at an impromptu meeting between
Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The two men have, in theory, scheduled meetings on
Thursdays, which are often not maintained, as they
do not see politically eye-to-eye. The surprise
meeting on Tuesday has sparked speculation that the
assault is near. Cynics, however, say this is just
another coup de theatre, which aims at shaking from
the shoulders the United States and Iraq, who are
clearly opposed to military action against the
Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) on Iraqi soil.
False alarms have been almost a routine since the
beginning of this year, when the General Staff of
the armed forces energetically requested the
government's approval to move into Northern Iraq in
large numbers in order to avenge the weekly
casualties by the army in Eastern Turkey, caused by
PKK armed militants stationed in refugee camps and
villages in Iraq.
The Turkish army has been drawing plans since last
year for a "total clean-up" of that region, but the
government has avoided responding clearly. A
wait-and-see strategy has prevailed within the
Justice and Development Party (AKP), the ruling
political formation.
Other events this week corroborate the growing
belief that the incursion is near. The U.S.
ambassador to Ankara on Monday had to publicly
reject in dismay allegations by the Turkish press
that his government has been selling weapons to PKK
members. The United States, as well as the EU and
Turkey, consider this organisation a terrorist one.
General Yasar Buyukanit, head of the General Staff,
speaking on Tuesday at a security conference in the
Mediterranean resort city of Antalya, criticised the
international community for what he claims was lack
of foreign understanding for the situation and
cooperation with Turkey to "combat Kurdish
terrorism" in Iraq directed against his country.
Gen. Buyukanit came out of a short period of silence
on the subject, to which he had retreated after
Prime Minister Erdogan had in late June declared
that he did not plan to allow in the short-term
massive military action in the neighbouring country.
In Antalya, however, he was outspoken.
"While we maintain our struggle against this
terrorist organisation," said Buyukanit referring to
the PKK, "and expect international cooperation in
this struggle, we are having difficulty
understanding some positions and attitudes that we
face. These attitudes not only disappoint us but
contradict the basic notion that combating terrorism
requires better cooperation."
More indicative, perhaps, of the signs of an
impending incursion into Iraq by Turkish forces is
the recent escape of a small group of PKK members
who fled a refugee camp in North Iraq and crossed
the border to Turkey to seek asylum.
At a press conference this week, organised by local
authorities, they claimed that large numbers of
Turkish Kurds were fleeing the region in
anticipation of a Turkish advance, and that Turkish
artillery was abundantly shelling PKK combatant
positions.
There is suspicion, however, among observers that
the escape and revelations may have been
orchestrated by Turkish security services, within
the context of psychological warfare, either to
incite PKK activists in Northern Iraq to abandon the
region, or to prepare the Turkish opinion for future
events. Either way, such incidents and information
from "beyond the enemy lines" are typical of
pre-intervention activity and carry a message or a
warning.
The meeting on Tuesday between the two Turkish
leaders also indicates that Erdogan is in a
situation where he has either to comply with the
military, supported by and supporting Sezer, or face
the consequences of his moderate approach to the
handling of the Kurdish problem.
Not that long ago, on Jun. 13, the Prime Minister
rebuked insistence by the military to cross the
border into Iraq. This was consistent with earlier
statements of intent to build productive
relationships with political chiefs in Kurdistan
(Northern Iraq) rather than punish their
constituents for their support to the PKK.
"Steps to improve relations with the regional
Kurdish administration might be taken in Northern
Iraq, why not; as long as it brings peace and calm
and paves way for positive developments. If every
step we are to take will bring calm for us and for
them, we are game anytime," Erdogan told Hurriyet, a
national newspaper, Feb. 15.
The rationale for his decision in June not to
authorise the invasion was that the problem was not
really PKK presence in Northern Iraq but that of PKK
armed activists within his country. "There are 500
terrorists in Iraq; there are 5,000 terrorists
inside Turkey. Has terrorism inside Turkey ended for
us to think about an operation in Northern Iraq?" he
asked.
He was quick to add that the figures he gave were
just for the purpose of illustrating where the real
issue was.
But Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have his back
against the wall now -- unless he has lured the
President and the opposition on to his turf, a
competence at which he excels. On the face of
things, Sezer may have put Erdogan before an
ultimatum. Either the Prime Minister authorises the
invasion or it can be launched without his approval.
Sezer, as President, is commander-in-chief of the
armed forces. Article 92 of the Turkish Constitution
provides that the President may decide to order the
armed forces to take action if the country is
attacked while Parliament is in recess.
Parliament is indeed in recess, and the country
suffers weekly attacks from Iraq-based guerrillas.
The President has therefore free hand to act.
Erdogan however, either because he got the message
or, likely, because he saw a political opportunity,
has been swift to accommodate the hawks and steal
the initiative.
It would seem that he is planning to call for an
extraordinary parliamentary session to seek approval
for cross-border action. This may lead to a "yes" or
a "no", but in any event, the people will have
decided -- and the military and the President will
have to abide by such decision.
Another reason for the government joining hearts
with the military is that there is a growing number
of AKP candidates and voters who would rather see
decisive action against the PKK, regardless of the
high cost and medium-to-low chances of success of
the operation.
The opposition, particularly the CHP -- the
left-wing party founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,
father of the Turkish republic -- is capitalising on
these popular feelings in view of the legislative
elections of Jul. 22.
However, the timing for the green light to move into
Iraq remains unclear. Launching the operation before
the elections -- actually, a few days or hours
before Jul. 22 -- could increase Erdogan's
popularity. At the same time, it could lead to a
postponement of the elections, due to a national
emergency, an outcome favourable to CHP and probably
sought by Sezer.
In this warm night in Ankara, the bets are open at
the terraces of both the popular and fashionable
cafés and restaurants of the capital. The gambling
now is not on the "if" but on the "when" of the
first Turkish shot on Iraqi land.
But the excitement, if any, is not shared by the
shopkeepers, hotel owners and restaurateurs around
the country. The clicking of rifle triggers and that
of cash registers have never been in harmony. For
them, the war can wait until the winter.
IPS
** The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan" Southeast
Turkey.
Kurds are not recognized as an official minority in
Turkey and are denied rights granted to other
minority groups. Under EU pressure, Turkey recently
granted Kurds limited rights for broadcasts and
education in the Kurdish language, but critics say
the measures do not go far enough.
Others estimate over 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
Turkey is home to over 25 million ethnic Kurds, some
of whom openly sympathise with the Kurdish PKK for a
Kurdish homeland in the country's mainly Kurdish
southeast of Turkey.
Before August 2002, the Turkish government placed
severe restrictions on the use of Kurdish language,
prohibiting the language in education and broadcast
media.
The Kurdish alphabet is still not recognized
in Turkey, and use of the Kurdish letters X, W, Q
which do not exist in the Turkish
alphabet has led to judicial persecution in 2000 and
2003
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan
but unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag
is banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it
is a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan ( Kurdistan-Turkey)
wikipedia
Top |
Kurd Net
does not take credit for and is not responsible for the content of news
information on this page
|
® 