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Keep a wary eye on Turks' intentions
toward Iraqi Kurds
8.7.2007
By Jim Hoagland
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July
8, 2007
The relative stability and prosperity of Iraqi
Kurdistan provide the only bright spots of
redemption for President Bush in the bloody anarchy
that Iraq has become under a mismanaged occupation.
Permanently securing the Kurdish minority from
Baghdad's genocidal impulses and acts would
constitute a historic accomplishment.
But the growing likelihood of Turkish military
strikes into Iraq's northern region threatens to
erase that last positive legacy of the American
invasion -- and to undermine prospects for a major
U.S. redeployment out of Iraq's chaotic cities to
bases in the north in the near future. Eagerly
sought by the Kurds, such redeployment is strongly
opposed by Ankara, which listens to an urgently
ticking electoral clock.
Managing Turkey's legitimate grievances against its
own Kurdish rebels who take sanctuary among their
Iraqi kin requires both agility and firmness from
Washington. Thus far, the administration has shown
neither quality in dealing with a devastated Iraq
and its grasping neighbors. There is no better time
than a moment of political extremis to change
habits.
American failure in transforming Iraq has many
causes. None is more important than Bush's inability
to set clear, achievable priorities and to stick to
them when they collide with the vested interests of
Iraq's neighbors and of significant parts of the
U.S. bureaucracy.
Bush has not followed his own counsel to the
American people. Despite his rhetoric, he has not
treated Iraq as the defining struggle of our time,
one that requires sustained sacrifice and clarity of
purpose. He has hopped from goal to goal and from
faction to faction in the U.S. government, in Iraq
and in the region, rather than pursue the steady,
determined course that was -- and still is --
needed.
Consider his deferring to Sunni Arab governments
rather than putting effective pressure on them to
back U.S. efforts in Iraq. Vice President Cheney and
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have both gone
to the region and urged Saudi Arabia's rulers to
work with Nouri al-Maliki, the Shiite prime minister
of the "national unity" Iraqi government that the
administration helped bring to power last year.
"No," was the blunt answer from the Saudis, who let
it be known they do not trust Maliki because they
see him as an agent of Iran's Shiite ayatollahs.
"Okay," perhaps accompanied by a shrug, seems to
have been the considered bottom-line U.S. response.
Similarly, the administration has not conveyed a
message that is clear and consistent enough to deter
Turkey's politicians from issuing increasingly
strident threats to invade Iraqi Kurdistan -- or to
keep Turkish generals from massing forces on the
border, as they have in recent weeks.
This is partly about politics: Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party
face a pitched battle for control of parliament in
elections set for July 22. They must convincingly
trounce the far-right Nationalist Movement Party to
secure the commanding majority they need to enact
far-reaching changes to the constitution. But NMP
accusations that Erdogan is weak on Kurdish
terrorism are boosting the right-wingers in the
polls as time runs out.
But it is also about strategy: The generals, who
compete with the politicians for influence in
Turkish affairs, do not want a strong,
U.S.-protected Kurdistan on their border. And they
are upset over what they view as unkept promises
from Washington to curb the small but murderous
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrilla force that
operates from Iraqi territory, thereby relieving the
pressure on Ankara to intervene.
Neither the Pentagon nor the CIA appears to have
stepped up to the mission. This inaction feeds
Turkish suspicions that hidden anti-Iranian agendas
and alliances among U.S., Saudi, Jordanian and other
intelligence services have more influence over
American priorities than do commitments from Bush or
his senior aides.
A month ago, a consensus among trained observers and
diplomats held that the Turks were unlikely to
intervene despite their threats. That opinion is
changing as disillusionment and electoral
desperation take hold in Ankara. Moreover,
predictions that any intervention would be limited
to airstrikes and mopping-up operations by Turkish
special forces at PKK sites are giving way to fears
of a much larger operation that could be aimed at
forestalling Kurdish control over the disputed
Kirkuk region. Rice telephoned Turkish Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul on Friday to try to head off
intervention but received no firm assurance.
A Turkish invasion that turns Kurdistan's relative
calm into chaos and bloodshed would be the nail in
the coffin for Bush's legacy in Iraq and for U.S.
public support for the American presence there.
Making sure this does not happen should be Priority
One for Bush and for everyone working for him in the
weeks ahead.
washingtonpost com
** The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan" Southeast
Turkey.
Kurds are not recognized as an official minority in
Turkey and are denied rights granted to other
minority groups. Under EU pressure, Turkey recently
granted Kurds limited rights for broadcasts and
education in the Kurdish language, but critics say
the measures do not go far enough.
Others estimate over 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
Turkey is home to over 25 million ethnic Kurds, some
of whom openly sympathise with the Kurdish PKK for a
Kurdish homeland in the country's mainly Kurdish
southeast of Turkey.
Before August 2002, the Turkish government placed
severe restrictions on the use of Kurdish language,
prohibiting the language in education and broadcast
media.
The Kurdish alphabet is still not recognized
in Turkey, and use of the Kurdish letters X, W, Q
which do not exist in the Turkish
alphabet has led to judicial persecution in 2000 and
2003
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan
but unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag
is banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it
is a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan ( Kurdistan-Turkey)
wikipedia
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