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U.S. Scholars: Divide Iraq into 3 regions
5.7.2007
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July
5, 2007
WASHINGTON -- With President Bush's war
strategy clouded by limited results and mounting
casualties, two scholars are proposing a partition
plan that would divide Iraq into three main regions.
The authors, Edward P. Joseph of Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies and Michael
O'Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution, are hoping to draw the attention of
Bush administration policymakers.
They are circulating their suggestions within the
Bush administration.
Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, who is a Democratic
presidential candidate and chairman of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, has sought for months
to attract support for a partition plan he
formulated with Leslie Gelb, former head of the
private Council on Foreign Relations. It would
establish a federal system of government in Iraq.
The idea has gained some attention in Congress but
has not been embraced by the Bush administration.
"The time may be approaching when the only hope for
a more stable Iraq is a soft partition of the
country," the report by Joseph and O'Hanlon said.
Administration strategy is geared toward building up
a strong central government. But U.S. public support
is declining, and according to some observers, Iraq
may be on the verge of civil war.
A major assessment of policy is expected in
September.
In the meantime, there have been proposals for
withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, now numbering
about 157,000. The Pentagon says more than 3,500
U.S. troops have died since the beginning of the war
in March 2003 that toppled Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein.
Under the plan, Iraqis would divide the country into
three main regions. Each would assume primary
responsibility for its
own security and governance, as Iraqi Kurds already
have in Kurdistan.
"Creating such a structure could prove to be
difficult and risky," the report said. "However,
when measured against the alternatives — continuing
to police an ethnic-sectarian war, or withdrawing
and allowing the conflict to escalate — the risks of
soft partition appear more acceptable."
Joseph said in an interview Tuesday: "We have got to
find a way through." He said the time had come to
decide whether the strategy of promoting a strong
central government in Baghdad made sense.
"The vision we put forward is not a prescription for
immediate withdrawal," Joseph said. "It does involve
substantial commitments of U.S. troops."
"However," he added, "we anticipate a substantial
reduction in U.S. casualties."
The proposal would require the acquiescence of major
political factions in Iraq. There would be
substantial, voluntary movement in mixed, volatile
areas.
For instance, Saddam and his predecessors
deliberately settled Arab Shiites and Sunnis in
Kirkuk to disadvantage the Kurds, Joseph said. Arabs
settled there have expressed willingness to move out
if they are provided with housing and a livelihood
elsewhere.
In Baghdad, rather than keeping vulnerable
minorities in tense parts of the capital, Joseph
said, "It might make sense to move them voluntarily
to places where they would be safer."
Among the Shiites, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of the
Supreme Islamic Council has called for a Shiite
region for years. But Muqtada al-Sadr and others in
the Shiite leadership oppose it, as do the major
Sunni politicians.
The three main spheres proposed in the report would
be Shiite, Sunni and Kurdistan. The Kurds already
control Kurdistan.
AP
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