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Iraqi Withdrawal: Seven Scenarios
18.7.2007
By Austin Bay
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July
18, 2007
What happens if the United States and coalition
forces withdraw rapidly from Iraq? The U.S. and the
Iraqi governments have their own scenarios. Iran,
al-Qaida, Syria and Turkey have also analyzed
potential outcomes.
Business and government make plans. Every plan
anticipates a future outcome. Since the future can't
be predicted, the best plans acknowledge
uncertainty. Acknowledging uncertainty means
accepting risk -- the risk of being wrong. The art
of leadership is being "less wrong."
Here are seven "scenarios"
sketching "potential outcomes" of a quick withdrawal
from Iraq. These scenarios are not mutually
exclusive. You will find bits and pieces in all
seven: |
Austin Bay,
website
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1- Three New Countries: Kurdistan in the
north becomes an independent country -- and
immediately starts to wrestle with Turkey over the
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is waging a
secessionist struggle in southeastern Turkey.
Kurdistan has oil. Southern Iraq -- a predominantly
Shia area -- becomes a Shia state, also with oil.
Parts of Anbar province become a Sunni state (Iraqi
Sunnistan) -- which has few oil fields.
But what becomes of Baghdad? Does it divide like a
desert Berlin into Shia and Sunni sectors? Baghdad
remains a source of continuing conflict.
2- Regional Shia-Sunni War: Iran sees an
opportunity to recover not only the Shaat al Arab
region -- the delta of the Tigris and Euphrates --
but a chance to extend its border into the
economically productive areas of southern Iraq.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait immediately react to Iran's
drive into southern Iraq. Iraq has served as a
"buffer" between Sunni Arabs and Shia Iranians, and
the buffer is dissolving. Jordan and Egypt prepare
for action. The War Over Mesopotamia could last for
weeks, or it could grind on for years.
3- Turkey Expands: Turkey takes control of
Kurdistan region (northern Iraq) to the city of
Kirkuk. The Ottoman Empire once controlled
Mesopotamia. Turkey has a lingering claim to areas
of northern Iraq. For almost two decades, Turkey has
fought with the Kurdistan Workers Party -- a Kurdish
secessionist group in Turkey that has bases in
northern Iraq. Turkey could conclude the way to end
the war with the PKK would be to absorb Iraqi
Kurdistan.
Turkey would pay a huge political price, however. It
would lose all chance of joining the European Union.
As ties with the West deteriorate, Turkey might
become less secular and more Islamic in both
identity and in political orientation.
4- Shia Dictatorship: Shia Arabs win the
chaotic battle of neighborhoods, forcing Sunni Arabs
to flee. Call it "de facto" ethnic cleansing, as the
Sunnis flee to Sunni states, or move to the United
States. Al-Qaida, however, retains a presence. A
hard-line Shia regime takes power in Baghdad with
the mission of eradicating al-Qaida. The Kurds
retain a high degree of autonomy with just enough
connection to Baghdad to keep the Turks away.
5- "Gang Up": A calculated version of
Scenario 4 -- Rwanda in the desert. Shia Arabs and
Kurds launch a coordinated campaign to eliminate
Iraq's Sunni Arab community. The threat of Iranian
intervention prevents Sunni Arab nations from
protecting Iraqi Sunnis.
6- Chaos: Iraq shatters into ethnic enclaves,
with a few "new Mesopotamian city states" managing
to control oil fields.
Iran and Turkey exert "regional influence" over
eastern and northern Iraq, respectively, but
concerned about confrontation between themselves or
provoking sanctions from Europe and the United
States, neither sends its military forces in large
numbers beyond current borders.
Terror attacks and intermittent fighting afflict
neighborhoods throughout Iraq. Local warlords rule
by fear and make money by either smuggling oil,
drugs or arms. This tribal hell is a perfect
disaster -- the kind of disaster that allows al-Qaida
to build training facilities and base camps for
operations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
7- The Iraqi Center Holds: The democratic
government proves to be resilient. The assumption
behind this scenario is that Iraq's government is
just responsive enough and its security forces are
just strong enough to withstand attacks by
extremists and give Iran pause. After several months
of brutal warfare, the Iraqi Army destroys insurgent
groups.
Out of seven "rapid withdrawal" scenarios only one
-- number seven -- clearly benefits the majority of
Iraqis.
Austin Bay official website
strategypage com
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