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Report says Iraq is on the verge of
collapse
17.5.2007
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May 17, 2007
BAGHDAD, Iraq, -- Iraq's government has lost
control of vast areas to powerful local factions and
the country is on the verge of collapse and
fragmentation, a leading British think-tank said on
Thursday.
Chatham House also said there was not one civil war
in Iraq, but "several civil wars" between rival
communities, and accused Iraq's main neighbours --
Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- of having reasons
"for seeing the instability there continue".
"It can be argued that Iraq is on the verge of being
a failed state which faces the distinct possibility
of collapse and fragmentation," it said in a report.
"The Iraqi government is not able to exert authority
evenly or effectively over the country. Across huge
swathes of territory, it is largely irrelevant in
terms of ordering social, economic and political
life."
The report also said that a U.S.-backed security
crackdown in Baghdad launched in February has failed
to reduce overall violence across the country, as
insurgent groups have just shifted their activities
outside the capital.
While cautioning that Iraq might not ultimately
exist as a united entity, the 12-page report said a
draft law to distribute Iraq's oil wealth equitably
among Sunni Arabs, Shi'ites and ethnic Kurds was
"the key to ensuring Iraq's survival".
"It will be oil revenue that keeps the state
together rather than any attempt to build a coherent
national project in the short term," the influential
think-tank said.
The oil law, among benchmarks Washington has set
Baghdad as critical steps to end sectarian violence,
has yet to be approved by parliament. Ethnic Kurds,
whose autonomous Kurdistan region holds large
unproven reserves, oppose the draft's wording.
Rather that one civil war pitting majority Shi'ites
against Sunnis nationwide, the paper said Iraq's
"cross-cutting conflicts" were driven by power
struggles between sectarian, ethnic and tribal
groups with differing regional, political and
ideological goals as they compete for the country's
resources.
The author of the report, Middle East expert Gareth
Stansfield, said instability in Iraq was "not
necessarily contrary to the interests" of Iran,
Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
"(Iraq) is now a theatre in which Iran can 'fight'
the U.S. without doing so openly," Stansfield said,
adding that Iran was the "most capable foreign
power" in Iraq in terms of influencing future
events, more so than the United States.
The rise to power of Iraq's long-oppressed Shi'ite
majority has caused concern in Sunni Gulf states,
particularly Saudi Arabia, which deeply distrusts
non-Arab, Shi'ite Iran's influence in Iraq,
Stansfield wrote.
Should a U.S. withdrawal herald the beginning of a
full-scale Sunni-Shi'ite civil war in Iraq, Saudi
Arabia "might not stand by", the paper said, "with
the possibility of Iran and Saudi Arabia fighting
each other through proxies in Iraq".
Reuters
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