Sadr bloc to quit Iraqi government 16.4.2007

Members of the movement said a formal announcement would be made later Monday, after Sadrist lawmaker Saleh Hassan Issa al-Igaili told AFP on Sunday that the withdrawal was imminent.

There was also tension in the southern city of Basra, where there have been calls from Sadr supporters for a protest against the provincial governor and warnings from local leaders that this could trigger violence.

Meanwhile, Iraq continues to be wracked by a bombing campaign mounted by Sunni insurgents in order to undermine a two-month-old joint US and Iraqi security operation designed to cement Maliki's fragile authority.

If Sadr's movement, which enjoys widespread support among Shiites living in Baghdad and Iraq's poor and unruly southern cities, makes good its threat it will herald a new power-struggle within Iraq's Shiite majority.

In recent months there have already been clashes between fighters from Sadr's Mahdi Army militia and Shiite-led security forces, while US forces have rounded up many militia leaders in raids around the country.

The young cleric -- he is thought to be in his early thirties -- is the wild card in Iraqi politics, with more power to disrupt than to encourage the country's small, faltering steps towards national reconciliation.

He has not been seen in public since October last year, and US commanders believe he is in hiding in Iran, a claim denied by his supporters.

On April 9, the fourth anniversary of the US capture of Baghdad, he called mass demonstrations in the Shiite holy city of Najaf to demand a timetable for American troop withdrawal, an idea quickly rejected by Maliki.

Despite this apparent dispute between the former allies -- Sadr's votes ensured Maliki's election -- some analysts said the prime minister could use the defection to strengthen his own position.

Tareq Harb, a political analyst, said Sadr will not call a confidence vote to unseat Maliki while the prime minister will use the threat of a radical opposition to extract more aid from the United States.

"He will use this to exert pressure on the Americans to prepare for their withdrawal and intensify the training of the Iraqi troops," he told AFP.

In August 2004, US forces fought bloody street battles in order to defeat a uprising by Sadr's Mahdi Army, but since then he has prefered to be be seen as part of Iraq's troubled political process.

The International Crisis Group's Iraq expert Joost Hiltermann warned that Sadr's movement remains unpredictable, but said that the Shiite firebrand was gambling on being able to wait out his US foes.

"Sadr does not want to restart fight with the Americans as there is a feeling that they will go away next year.

He wants to wait it out. But he has to consolidate himself," Hiltermann told AFP.

"This is an internal debate within the Sadr movement. Sadr wants to consolidate his ranks. His decisions are being challenged by his own people.

"Sadr continues to be strong. He is the only popular movement in Iraq. He is going through difficult times as he has a loosely managed organisation which is not disciplined," he added.

Sadr's decision to support Maliki's security plan, albeit while opposing US involvement, and his disappearance may have weakened him in the eyes of his more hardline supporters, Hiltermann said.

That security plan suffered several more setbacks over the weekend, when a series of car bomb attacks on Shiite areas claimed dozens of lives.


AFP  

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