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Tensions increase over Kirkuk referendum
delay
1.12.2007
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December 1, 2007
Kirkuk, Iraq's border with Kurdistan region,
-- November 15 was supposed to be an important
date in Iraqi history. It was the initial date
planned for a referendum to decide whether the
Kurdish oil-rich region of Kirkuk will be
incorporated into the semi-autonomous Kurdistan
region.
Kirkuk city is a Kurdish city and it lies just south
border of the Kurdistan autonomous region, the
population is a mix of majority Kurds and minority
of Arabs, Christians and Turkmen
Although that date was scrapped and replaced with
the directive that the referendum be held before the
end of 2007, the passing of that date without any
sign of a vote was indicative of how this process,
outlined in Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution,
is proceeding.
Article 140 calls for a three-step process of
"normalization," which seeks to reverse the
Arabization policies of the former regime, when
thousands of Kurds and non-Arabs were forcibly
evicted from Kirkuk and replaced with Arabs from
central and southern Iraq. This is to be followed by
a census and then a referendum.
The original deadline for the census was to be the
end of July, but Kurdish officials acknowledged that
due to "technical problems," the normalization
process was still far from complete, thereby pushing
back the census and it seems the referendum as well.
While the Kurds have steadfastly held to the belief
that the referendum will go forward, as
constitutionally mandated, by the end of 2007, it is
extremely unlikely that this will happen. In fact,
Qadir Aziz,www.ekurd.net
the spokesman for
Kurdistan regional President Massoud Barzani, told
the Kurdish newspaper "Awena" on November 13 that
the deadline for conducting the referendum needed to
be extended because the normalization and census
were not carried out in time.
However, some Kurdish officials have accused the
government in Baghdad of deliberately trying to
delay the referendum.
Kurds Cry Foul
On November 17, the leader of the Kirkuk city
council accused the Baghdad government of
intentionally stalling the implementation of Article
140, AFP reported. There have also been rumblings
among Kurdish officials that foot-dragging by
Baghdad has been mostly responsible for delaying the
normalization process.
Indeed, Babakir Sdiq, the director of the Kirkuk
office for the High Committee for Implementing
Article 140, told pukmedia.com on November 20 that
he was informed by the Iraqi Interior Ministry that
the delivery of important internal migration forms
would be delayed by up to 15 days.
These forms are needed for Arabs who want to
voluntary leave Kirkuk and return to their original
districts in exchange for a compensation package of
approximately $15,000 and a plot of land. The delay
has created a backlog in the normalization process,
complicating any attempt to carry out a census, and
by extension a referendum.
In response to the accusations, the Baghdad
government immediately ordered an investigation into
why the referendum has been delayed. The swift
response was clearly meant to placate simmering
Kurdish anger and frustration on an issue many Kurds
describe as "the red line."
This frustration was summed up by Kurdish lawmaker
Mahmud Uthman:www.ekurd.net
"Four years have passed,
and the referendum should have been held by now, but
successive governments have done nothing. Yet, we do
understand that there were obstacles, such as
security challenges and bureaucracy."
Fierce Opposition Among Arabs, Turkomans
There has also been near-universal opposition among
Iraq's non-Kurdish leaders to holding the
referendum, with many warning of widespread violence
if it is held. The governorate has sizable Arab and
Turkoman populations, and both groups have voiced
concern that if the Kurds end up controlling Kirkuk,
they may be forced out.
The Turkomans have said that they prefer being under
the authority of the Baghdad government, but warned
that they would seek regional autonomy if Kirkuk
were incorporated into the Kurdistan region. Abas
al-Bayati, an Islamic Turkoman Union leader, told
"Al-Hayat" on November 18 that Kirkuk should be
declared an independent region, run jointly by
Arabs, Kurds and Turkomans -- a proposal that the
Kurds have rejected.
Dangerous Spiral Of Violence
What Iraqi Kurds fear is that the delay of the
referendum may become an open-ended postponement
without any concrete resolution. That potential
scenario could lead the Kurds to take a more
aggressive route to acquire Kirkuk.
In a veiled threat after the November 17
parliamentary session, Kurdish lawmaker Fu'ad Massum
warned that the Kurds may resort to other measures
if Article 140 is not fully implemented. "If the
concerned parties [non-Kurdish parties in
government] act irresponsibly, the Kurdish parties
will then have their own way."
Going even further, the Kurdish daily "Rozhnama"
reported on November 21 that the Kirkuk Governorate
Council approved a proposal stating that if Article
140 were not implemented on time, then it would
advocate unilaterally merging Kirkuk with the
Kurdistan region.
Such a move would undoubtedly lead to violence among
the disparate factions within the governorate and
quite possibly lead Turkey to intervene on behalf of
the Turkomans, who are ethnic Turks. Hadi al-Amiri,
a member of the Shi'ite Supreme Islamic Iraqi
Council, told AFP on November 17 that any attempt by
the Kurds to incorporate Kirkuk by force would "open
the gates of hell" and quite possibly lead to civil
war.
However, leaving the fate of Kirkuk unresolved also
creates a dangerous predicament for the governorate
and the rest of Iraq. There has been a marked
increase in violence in the region, though it is
unclear whether the tensions concerning Kirkuk were
the cause. Regardless, without a comprehensive
political solution, the situation in Kirkuk could
quickly spiral into the kind of violence that has
gripped the rest of Iraq.
rferl org
Kirkuk city is a
Kurdish city
and it lies just south border of the Kurdistan
autonomous region and it is not under the full
control of Kurdistan Regional Government
administration, the population is a mix of majority
Kurds and minority of Arabs, Christians and Turkmen.
lies 250 km northeast of Baghdad.
www.ekurd.net
The former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein forced
over 250,000 Kurdish residents to give up their
homes to Arabs in the 1970s, to "Arabize" the city
and the region's oil industry.
Based on Iraq's Constitution a referendum is to be
held in late 2007 to decide whether the oil-rich
Kurdish province should be annexed to the safe
semiautonomous Kurdistan region in Iraq's north.
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