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Trudy Rubin: A chance for Kurdish-Turkish
rapprochement 21.12.2007
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December
21, 2007
Erbil-Hewler, Kurdistan region 'Iraq', --
The president of Iraq's Kurdistan region, Massoud
Barzani, leader of the legendary Barzani clan, was
angry - at Turkey and at the United States.
On Saturday, Turkey
bombed Iraqi Kurdish villages,
killing two civilians and sending hundreds fleeing;
300 Turkish soldiers later
made a raid
across the Iraqi border. The attacks were meant to
target Turkish Kurdish separatists from the PKK
rebels movement, who are based in Iraq's Kurdistan
mountains. The United States provided Turkey with
the coordinates for the air strikes.
"We know Iraqi air space is under U.S. control,"
Barzani said bluntly on Monday in his presidential
office, when I asked him whom he blamed. he said :
"If there wasn't a (U.S.) green light, the Turks
could not have carried out the attack."www.ekurd.net
Barzani then turned down
an invitation to lunch with Condoleezza Rice during
her quick visit to Iraq.
So what's going on in Kurdistan, the most peaceful,
booming region in Iraq? Is there a danger of a war
in the north between two U.S. allies? Is America
betraying the Kurds?
The answer to both questions is no (for now).
Despite the tragic deaths, new possibilities have
arisen in recent days that could help defuse
Kurdish-Turkish tensions and peacefully resolve
Kurdish claims to the contested, and oil-rich, city
of Kirkuk. But for either to happen, the United
States will have to act more strategically as a
mediator than it did in the case of the Turkish
bombs.
The air attack had as much to do with internal
Turkish politics as it did with Turkish claims that
the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) wasn't doing
enough to root out the PKK. The issue has become
caught up in tensions between a moderate Islamist
Turkish government that seeks better relations with
the Iraqi Kurds, and a secular Turkish military that
feels it is losing ground and is looking for an
issue to help it recoup.
In recent months,www.ekurd.net
the Turkish military
massed tens of thousands of troops on the Iraq
border. The invasion threat seems to have passed.
But the Turkish military suspects KRG leaders of
harboring a desire for independence that would fuel
Kurdish separatism in Turkey.
The Kirkuk issue plays into these fears. Many Turks
believe the Kurds want to regain control of Kirkuk
(a once-Kurdish city forcibly Arabized by Saddam
Hussein) to use the city's oil wealth to finance
statehood. KRG leaders' strong denials don't
convince them. Meantime, the failure to hold a
referendum by the end of 2007 to resolve the status
of Kirkuk - as called for by Article 140 of the
Iraqi constitution - has turned the city into a new
center of sectarian violence.
So why do I see a new chance for Kurdish-Turkish
rapprochement?
Reason one: Now that the Turkish military has made
its military point, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan may be better positioned to push for a
diplomatic solution.
"The Turks did what they wanted to do, and we don't
need any more tensions," I was told by the prime
minister of the KRG, Nechirvan Barzani. He hopes
"after this there could be the beginning of dialogue
with the Turks."
The Turkish government may be interested: On the day
before the air strikes, Emre Taner, the chief of
Turkey's national intelligence organization, visited
Erbil on behalf of Erdogan and Turkish President
Abdullah Gul. His message to top Kurdish leaders:
The Turkish government wants good relations with the
KRG, and it also wants the question of Kirkuk to be
solved constitutionally.
Reason two: There is new hope for progress on Kirkuk.
All parties have agreed to let the United Nations
Mission for Iraq devise a way to implement Article
140 within six months. Stefan De Mistura, the
impressive U.N. special representative to Iraq, has
won the trust of the Kurds; he helped organize the
return home of more than 1 million Iraqi Kurdish
refugees from the mountains of Turkey after the 1991
Gulf War.
"The ticking bomb (of Kirkuk) still ticks," De
Mistura told me in Erbil, "but we have put a new
engine into the acceleration of the process, called
the United Nations, which has the expertise and can
provide legitimacy to the process." In this process,
says De Mistura, "Turkey has to be an important
part."
Indeed, the makings of Turkish-Kurdish rapprochement
can already be seen in Erbil. The dusty, low-slung
provincial capital is booming with construction,
which is almost all done by Turkish firms using
Turkish workers. Trade with and transport from
Turkey is Kurdistan's lifeline.
But despite positive signs, the border dispute with
Turkey could still explode. Having defused Turkish
charges that we're soft on the PKK, the United
States must now persuade the Turkish military that
the issue can't be resolved by force.
"Turkey and the Kurds are both allies of the United
States," says prime minister Nechirvan Barzani.
"This issue should be a top (U.S.) priority for a
solution. Don't open another front" in the north, he
pleads, "just as the security situation is getting
better in Iraq."
pressofatlanticcity com
The contents of this article reflect the author's
personal opinions
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