|
PKK militarily weak but tactically strong:
analysts
22.10.2007
|
|
|
|
October
22, 2007
LONDON, -- Turkey's Kurdish PKK separatists
in Kurdistan 'northern Iraq' are not a strong
military force, but a Turkish military strike on
their bases could draw in thousands sympathetic to
their cause, analysts said Monday.
According to the International Institute of
Strategic Affairs (IISS) think-tank in London, the
Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK which has been
fighting for self-rule in the mainly Kurdish
southeast region of Turkey since 1984, currently has
between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters.
In comparison, Turkey has an active capability of
nearly 515,000 troops in its army, navy, air force
and paramilitary, the IISS said in its publication
"The Military Balance 2007".
Carina O'Reilly, European editor at Jane's Country
Risk, said PKK numbers were well down on the
estimated 10,000 fighters that fought in a bloody
civil war in mountainous south-east Turkey from 1984
to 1999.
Then, they were equipped with portable anti-tank
weapons and surface-to-air missiles, rumoured to
have been supplied by Syria, she said. But since a
1999 ceasefire, they have suffered a shortfall in
recruits and hardware.
"Right now, they have got next to nothing," she told
AFP. "They are not a serious military force. It
feels like they're poking a bear with a big stick. I
don't think Turkey wants to go in if it can possibly
avoid it.
"The PKK is almost goading them. They don't have the
military capability to take on the Turkish
government. They haven't got the manpower or the
kit."
Fadi Hakura, from the Chatham House foreign affairs
think-tank in London, agreed the PKK was a weakened
force militarily, compared with Turkey, which has
F16 fighter jets, Cobra, Black Hawk and Eurocopter
helicopters at its disposal.
But he said PKK tactics had evolved as Iraq
descended into sectarian conflict after the 2003
US-led liberation.
"Their tactics are similar to Sunni insurgents in
Iraq, for instance improvised explosive devices,
mines, attacking military units using for example
small cells of five to perhaps 10 fighters," he
said.
Such "hit and run" tactics had been effective
because of the hostile mountainous terrain of
southeast Turkey, where military convoys and supply
routes can be seen from afar and detection is
difficult, he said.
In addition, the Turkish military had a lack of
armoured military vehicles which, coupled with the
fact that many of the troops fighting the PKK are
conscripts and not trained in counter-insurgency,
meant casualties were high.
Both analysts said the PKK appeared to be looking to
offset its disadvantage by drawing Turkey into a
potentially lengthy conflict in harsh terrain, just
as winter snows are set to fall.
That would leave Turkey reliant on air strikes and
commando raids but the lightly-equipped PKK were
more mobile and could effectively "vanish" in
mountain passes, said O'Reilly.
As well as affecting Turkey's standing
internationally, a Turkish cross-border strike
against PKK bases could draw in up to 100,000
Kurdish fighters -- or peshmergas -- in Kurdistan
autonomous region in northern Iraq, who are
well-equipped and trained in mountain warfare.
They are unlikely to stand by as the PKK, which they
tolerate and allow to circulate in northern Iraq,
are attacked, O'Reilly said.
Hakura told BBC radio earlier Monday that with more
belligerent noises from Ankara, the threat of
invasion was "very high", although specific action
against PKK camps in the mountains could see minimal
impact on civilian life.
"But if they go for far greater all out war against
the Kurdish regional authority in northern Iraq,
then the impact could be catastrophic, turning the
whole northern part of northern Iraq into a whole
quagmire of conflict.
"If the Turkish forces cross over the border it
undermines the sanctity of the border and creates a
very bad precedent for regional powers like Iran,
perhaps even Syria, to undertake overt military
interference when they deem it necessary," Hakura
said.
AFP
**
Kurds are not recognized as an official minority in
Turkey and are denied rights granted to other
minority groups. Under EU pressure, Turkey recently
granted Kurds limited rights for broadcasts and
education in the Kurdish language, but critics say
the measures do not go far enough.
The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan" Southeast
Turkey.
Others estimate over 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
Turkey is home to over 25 million ethnic Kurds, some
of whom openly sympathise with the Kurdish PKK for a
Kurdish homeland in the country's mainly Kurdish
southeast of Turkey.
Before August 2002, the Turkish government placed
severe restrictions on the use of Kurdish language,
prohibiting the language in education and broadcast
media.
The Kurdish alphabet is still not recognized
in Turkey, and use of the Kurdish letters X, W, Q
which do not exist in the Turkish
alphabet has led to judicial persecution in 2000 and
2003
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan
but unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag
is banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it
is a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan (
Kurdistan-Turkey)
wikipedia
Top |
Kurd Net
does not take credit for and is not responsible for the content of news
information on this page
|
® 