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Turkish army operations in Iraqi Kurdistan
likely to be small-scale: Analysts
18.10.2007
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October
18, 2007
ISTANBUL, -- Any Turkish army operations
against Turkeish-Kurdish PKK rebels in Kurdistan
'northern Iraq' are likely to be low-level raids
yielding more psychological benefits than military
ones, analysts here agreed Thursday.
Despite last-minute pleas from Baghdad and
Washington, the Turkish parliament on Wednesday gave
the government carte blanche for one year to order
as many military strikes, whenever and however it
wants, against Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels
based and armed in Kurdistan 'northern Iraq'.
The government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan has always been wary of military action, but
is now "under heavy pressure from public opinion,
the media and the military," said Sedat Laciner,
president of the International Institute of
Strategic Research (USAK).
"It has run out of options," he said, citing the
heavy civilian and military losses Turkey suffered
from rebel operations in recent weeks, as well as
so-far fruitless attempts at cooperation with
Baghdad and Washington to curb the PKK.
But military action, if and when it comes, is
unlikely to consist of massive troop deployments in
Iraqi Kurdistan.
"I don't expect a large-scale incursion, but many
small-scale ones," Laciner said. "The Turkish army
will strike with missiles and air raids and a series
of limited operations" against specific targets.
Chief among them is likely to be Mount Qandil, home
to the PKK's northern Iraqi Kurdistan headquarters
and "a sort of school for terrorism," Laciner said.
"It is almost certain that the army will destroy
existing structures there as well as power lines and
the transport network," he said.
"PKK members are present in the Kurdistan region but
the regional government is preventing them from
carrying out any attacks against Turkish targets,"
senior Iraqi Kurdish politician Mahmud Othman said. www.ekurd.net
Wiping the PKK out of existence in northern Irak is
an unrealistic goal and the only viable approach is
to conduct "small-scale, short-term air force,
helicopter and commando raids," said retired general
Haldun Solmazturk, a veteran of two previous Turkish
incursions into Iraq in 1995 and 1997.
"The area is too large, montainous and difficult ...
it is rough terrain even for commando units," he
said.
Seeking to wipe out the PKK "would require large
numbers of troops staying there for relatively long
periods, which I don't think the current political
situation would allow," Solmazturk said.
Walter Posch of the European Union Institute for
Security Studies agreed:
"Militarily, the massing of tanks and the like is
hardly an answer to an evasive enemy," he said.
"What would make sense is a long, low-level and
persistent fight with special forces."
The downside, Posch said, is that "this would imply
no or only limited media coverage and thus would
have little domestic value."
He and other analysts agree that with a definitive
military victory unlikely, Turkey hopes to win the
psychological war -- with the help of the media.
"The first expected gain (of a military operation)
is to give satisfaction to public opinion" in
Turkey, Laciner commented.
Furthermore, Solmazturk added, "the PKK would be
deprived of a sense of security provided by the kind
of safe haven (they enjoy) inside Iraq.
"Such an operation would give the signal that the
Turkish government and the Turkish army are
determined to fight to the end," the retired general
said.
The other remaining question is when, once
diplomatic channels are exhausted, military action
is likely to be launched.
Clashes between the army and the PKK, which have
been continuing off and on for 24 years,
traditionally slow down during the harsh Kurdish
winter and pick up with the thaw.
But, Solmazturk said, "weather conditions are not an
obstacle to operations, they just require necessary
preparations."
"In wintertime they (the PKK) gather in particular
spots, so that would cause some damage, some
casualties and the psychological impact would be
paramount," he said. "And wintertime would be ideal
for airborne operations."
Iraqi Kurdish politician says, Turkey is using a
Kurdish separatist PKK rebel group as an excuse to
invade Kurdistan region 'Iraq' to prevent the
establishment of Kurdistan state in the Kurdish
autonomous region in 'northern Iraq'.
Ankara is anxious to prevent the emergence of a
Kurdish state in Kurdistan region 'northern Iraq',
fearing this could fan separatism among its own
large Kurdish population in southeast Turkey.
AFP
**
Kurds are not recognized as an official minority in
Turkey and are denied rights granted to other
minority groups. Under EU pressure, Turkey recently
granted Kurds limited rights for broadcasts and
education in the Kurdish language, but critics say
the measures do not go far enough.
The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan" Southeast
Turkey.
Others estimate over 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
Turkey is home to over 25 million ethnic Kurds, some
of whom openly sympathise with the Kurdish PKK for a
Kurdish homeland in the country's mainly Kurdish
southeast of Turkey.
Before August 2002, the Turkish government placed
severe restrictions on the use of Kurdish language,
prohibiting the language in education and broadcast
media.
The Kurdish alphabet is still not recognized
in Turkey, and use of the Kurdish letters X, W, Q
which do not exist in the Turkish
alphabet has led to judicial persecution in 2000 and
2003
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan
but unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag
is banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it
is a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan ( Kurdistan-Turkey)
wikipedia
** Since 1991, the Kurds of Iraq achieved self-rule
in part of the country. Today's teenagers are the
first generation to grow up under Kurdish rule. In
the new Iraqi Constitution, it is referred to as
Kurdistan region. Kurdistan region has all the
trappings of an independent state -- its own
constitution, its own parliament, its own flag, its
own army, its own border, its own border patrol, its
own national anthem, its own education system, its
own International airports, even its own stamp inked
into the passports of visitors.
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