|
What can Turkey really do ?
10.10.2007
By Ilnur Cevik |
|
|
|
October
10, 2007
MILITARY OPTION
1-Turkey is already conducting hot pursuit
operations against the PKK sometimes entering a few
kilometers into Iraqi Kurdistan territory. But this
is limited in scope and does not yield the expected
results of preventing PKK infiltration.
2-Turkey can order a cross border operation that
would be designed to penetrate deeper into Iraqi
territory and get to the PKK bases. But by the time
the Turkish forces reach these areas the terrorists
bands would have escaped.
3-Turkey can stay in a vast area of northern Iraq
after a cross border operation trying to control the
areas where PKK is holed up but this would have
international repercussions for Turkey from the U.S.
and European Union.
4-Turkish jets could bomb the areas where the PKK is
holed up in Kurdistan 'northern Iraq' but that would
hardly achieve anything as such tactics have proven
ineffective against any guerrilla group in the past.
5-Military, political and economic operations
against the PKK could be conducted in close
collaboration with Iran and if possible with the
Iraqi Kurds. Turkey has to deploy effective security
teams that will operate in a wide corridor from
Tunceli to 60 kilometers inside northern Iraq
against the PKK. This will need close cooperation
from Iran and the Iraqi Kurds.
ECONOMIC OPTION
1-Turkey could shutdown its Habur border crossing
into Iraqi Kurdistan and thus exert pressure on
Iraq, on the Americans and the Iraqi Kurds. But this
would also have serious repercussions for the local
population in mainly Kurdish southeastern of Turkey
that depend on Habur. If the Turkish and Iranian
borders were closed together in coordination with
Iran this would have a devastating effect on the
Iraqi Kurds.
2-Turkey could cut electricity exports to Iraq and
create a severe energy shortage in northern Iraq. It
could also stop air travel from Istanbul to Erbil
and Sulaimaniyah. Turkey can also close its airspace
to planes flying to and from Kurdistan region
'northern Iraq'. Such steps would really hurt the
Iraqi Kurdish economy.
3-Turkey could tell its contractors to quit northern
Iraq and return home. This would not have much
effect these days because many of the companies are
very unhappy with the work they do in northern Iraq
and are fed up with local obstacles and already want
to leave but are stuck because of financial
problems. There are also Turkish oil companies
active in the region.
4-Ankara could impose sanctions on Iraqi Kurds doing
business and control the activities of Iraqi Kurdish
companies in Turkey. There are several such
companies in Mersin and Istanbul that could be
affected by sanctions.
----
The killing of 13 Turkish soldiers in a PKK ambush
has created an uproar again in Turkey with the
public and opposition demanding swift action against
the PKK rebels.
Turkish leaders have promised strong measures with
Deputy Prime Minister and government spokesman Cemil
Cicek saying "this is where words end..." Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said new and
different measures will be introduced in the fight
against the terrorists...
The military and economic options are limited but
this does not mean affective measures can be put in
place.
Turkey feels it's problem lies in northern Iraq
where the PKK militants are holed up in camps in and
round the Kandil Mountains. The area is controlled
by the Iraqi Kurdish autonomous administration led
by Iraq's Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani.
However, the Kurds say they cannot control the area.
Similar attacks in the past have increased Turkish
public demands for a cross border operation. The
military has been insisting for months that a cross
border operation into Iraq is needed to deal a heavy
blow to the PKK and stall it. The government has
preferred a wait and see approach.
But the latest killings of soldiers has rekindled
demands for urgent action with a cross border
operation on top of the list.
A close study of recent events shows that Turkey is
already launching hot pursuit operations to chase
PKK militants into Iraq. But this is limited in
scope as they enter about 5 kilometers into Iraq and
swiftly withdraw.
What the military wants is a more comprehensive
operation but that would mean Turkish forces would
have to enter deep into Iraqi territory around
Kandil and move 60 kilometers in hostile land. This
would not be in the scope of hot pursuit rules.
However, experts say by the time Turkey moves into
the area the PKK bands would have taken off and
melted into the
terrain... They would regroup and return once the
Turks depart.
So for this reason the military would prefer an
extended stay in the region to prevent the PKK from
taking up positions again.
This is easier said than done both militarily and
politically. The costs would be huge and the strains
on the military would be great. But beyond that
Turkey would have to fight new diplomatic wars on
the international arena against the Americans and
the European Union as well as other permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council...
The U.S. has already warned Turkey not to take any
unilateral action in Iraq. Besides this Turkey has
signed an counter-terrorism agreement with Iraq
recently that introduces a series of measures to
crack down on the activities of the PKK. But the
Turkish military is still unhappy with the agreement
because it does not allow for hot pursuit.
Turkish jets could bomb the PKK camps in northern
Iraq but experts say this would be a waste of time
and resources as air strikes are known to have
limited effect on a guerrilla insurgency.
So what is left is really a joint Turkish-Iranian
military operation against the PKK in the Kandil
Mountains with the blessing of the Iraqi Kurds.
Turkish military experts have explained to The New
Anatolian that PKK militants are active on a vast
band that stretches from the eastern province of
Tunceli all the way across eastern and southeastern
Turkey 60 kilometers into Iraq. "You need well
trained fast acting specialized mobile units to
counter the PKK and move across Turkey if necessary
all the way into northern Iraq," the TNA was told.
Here the cooperation of the Iraqi Kurds are needed.
Iraqi Kurdish leaders have often said they aren't
about to send their forces off on a treacherous
struggle with hardened guerrillas in difficult
terrain. Iraq's Kurds fought the PKK several times
before in the 1990s, and they're not looking forward
to repeating the ugly experiences. Plus, the Iraqi
Kurds say their peshmerga are already stretched
thin. Besides keeping Arab terrorists out of the
Kurdish region, peshmerga are also helping the Iraqi
army in Mosul and Baghdad.
Iran also complains about Iraqi Kurds allowing PKK
affiliated PJAK militants operating inn their
territory. Iran has stepped up security operations
against the Kurds inside its territory while
shelling Kurdish villages across the border.
Iran recently closed its borders with the Kurdish
region citing terrorist concerns but in fact they
were protesting the arrest of an Iranian by the
Americans in Sulaimaniyah.
It is interesting to note that the border closing
paid off and the Iraqi Kurds had to send a
delegation to Tehran to convince the Iranians that
they would put up an effective fight against the
Kurdish militants. Iran opened the border gates on
Monday for a trial period to see if the Iraqi Kurds
would keep their promise. diplomatic sources said.
Observers say Turkey should coordinate its fight
against the PKK with Iran. There are already signs
that this is happening as Turkey and Iran reportedly
shelled the Iraqi Kurdish areas in succession. But
the participation of the Iraqi Kurds are needed in
this process.
To enlist their active help there are suggestions in
Ankara that economic measures are needed against the
Iraqi Kurds.
Turkey could shutdown its Habur border crossing into
Iraq and thus exert pressure on Iraq, on the
Americans and the Iraqi Kurds. Habur provides the
logistics support for the American forces in Iraq.
It is also the only border crossing from Turkey into
Kurdistan region and Iraq.
But such a move could have serious repercussions for
the local population in southeastern Turkey that
depend on Habur. If Habur closes the locals who
sustain a living from the gate could suffer badly
and in return seek remedies by helping the PKK.
If the Turkish and Iranian borders were closed
together in coordination with Iran this would have a
devastating effect on the Iraqi Kurds and probably
push them to cooperate effectively with Ankara and
Tehran.
Turkey could also cut electricity exports to Iraq
and create a severe energy shortage in northern
Iraq. The Duhok province relies completely on
Turkish electricity as well as many areas in the
region. This could cause deep resentment in the
area. Turkey can use this pretext dealing a heavy
blow to the Iraqi Kurds who want to travel to Europe
via Turkey.
Turkey could also stop air travel from Istanbul to
Erbil and Suleimania. Sweden and Austria have
declared the Kurdistan 'northern Iraq' airspace as
unsafe and suspended all flights to and from the
region. Thus Austrian Air has stopped scheduled
flights to Erbil.
Turkey can also close its airspace to planes flying
to and from northern Iraq. In recent weeks Turkey
has denied the flights of a German charter plane
which was flying for the Kurdistan Airlines.
Such steps would really hurt the Iraqi Kurdistan
region economy.
Besides all this Turkey could tell its contractors
to quit northern Iraq and return home. This would
not have much effect these days because many of the
companies are very unhappy with the work they do in
northern Iraq and are fed up with local obstacles
and already want to leave but are stuck because of
financial problems.
Ankara could also impose sanctions on Iraqi Kurds
doing business and control the activities of Iraqi
Kurdish companies in Turkey.
All these would be geared to forcing the Iraqi Kurds
to cooperate against the PKK but it would need
active Iranian help.
Source: thenewanatolian com
**
Kurds are not recognized as an official minority in
Turkey and are denied rights granted to other
minority groups. Under EU pressure, Turkey recently
granted Kurds limited rights for broadcasts and
education in the Kurdish language, but critics say
the measures do not go far enough.
The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan" Southeast
Turkey.
Others estimate over 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
Turkey is home to over 25 million ethnic Kurds, some
of whom openly sympathise with the Kurdish PKK for a
Kurdish homeland in the country's mainly Kurdish
southeast of Turkey.
Before August 2002, the Turkish government placed
severe restrictions on the use of Kurdish language,
prohibiting the language in education and broadcast
media.
The Kurdish alphabet is still not recognized
in Turkey, and use of the Kurdish letters X, W, Q
which do not exist in the Turkish
alphabet has led to judicial persecution in 2000 and
2003
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan
but unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag
is banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it
is a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan ( Kurdistan-Turkey)
wikipedia
Top |
Kurd Net
does not take credit for and is not responsible for the content of news
information on this page
|
® 