|
Is Turkey planning incursion or invasion?
30.10.2007 |
|
|
|
October
30, 2007
The current crisis on the Turkish-Iraqi border comes
against the background of a long and complicated
relationship between Ankara and the Iraqi Kurdistan
region in northern Iraq.
Several times in the 1990s, Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga
fighters fought alongside the Turkish army inside
northern Iraq, to try to dislodge militants of the
Turkish rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) from
the rugged and remote border mountains where they
were dug in.
But now the signs are that a major Turkish land
incursion, if it went beyond the border mountains,
would likely collide with Iraqi Kurdish forces,
anxious to defend the autonomous region of Iraqi
Kurdistan where they have been running their own
affairs since the early 1990s.
Tensions between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurdish region
had been rising steadily in the months running up to
the current crisis, triggered by PKK attacks which
have killed some 40 Turkish troops in recent weeks.
In May, Turkey was angered when the three provinces
of Iraqi Kurdistan were handed security control by
the US-led multinational forces, and promptly raised
the Kurdish flag instead of the Iraqi one.
Turkish sensitivities have been further aggravated
by the approach of the deadline for a referendum in
the oil-rich Kirkuk province - currently outside
Iraqi Kurdistan - on whether it wants to join the
three Kurdish-majority provinces currently making up
the autonomous Kurdish region.
Under the new Iraqi constitution, the referendum was
supposed to be held by the end of this year, but
will quietly slide as the necessary preparations,
such as a census, have yet to be carried out.
The Turks fear the acquisition of the Kirkuk fields
will bolster de facto Iraqi Kurdistan independence.
So it is hardly surprising that the massing of
Turkish armour and troops on the border is now being
seen by Iraqi Kurds as heralding a blow to their
autonomy under the cover of an attack on the PKK.
Many believe that two PKK raids, which killed 25
Turkish soldiers and led to the current crisis, were
stage-managed by the Turks to provide the pretext
for an incursion.
One Iraqi Kurdish leader quoted a PKK source as
saying: "We didn't mount raids on them, they
attacked us and we just defended ourselves."
"Tanks are useless in the kind of mountainous
terrain where the PKK are operating," said one
senior Kurdish source.
"And you don't need 100,000 troops to take their
positions. What they're clearly planning to do is to
stage a major incursion and take control of the
major land routes inside Iraqi Kurdistan leading up
into the border mountains from the Iraqi side."
Such an invasion would carry a clear risk of
collision with the Iraqi Kurdish forces.
Sources in both the major factions, the Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP) of Masoud Barzani, and the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), headed by the
Iraqi President, Jalal Talabani, said their troops
were preparing for a confrontation, while trying to
avoid one.
There is speculation in Kurdish circles that the
Turks might also try to bomb or otherwise neutralise
the two Iraqi Kurdistan's airports, at Erbil and
Sulaimaniyah, which Ankara asserts have been
allowing PKK fighters to move in and out of the
area.
The airports are also seen as proud symbols of Iraqi
Kurdistan autonomy.
The scale of the Turkish mobilisation on the border
is one factor that has persuaded Baghdad and the
Iraqi Kurds that the Turkish agenda goes beyond
simply dealing with the PKK.
"There are no Iraqi or Kurdish forces between the
Turkish army and the PKK fighters - they are in
direct contact," said Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar
Zebari in a BBC interview.
"The Turks could wipe them out or bomb them as they
have done in the past. What they are proposing is
something larger than that.
"They are talking about a large-scale military
incursion, which is getting people extremely,
extremely nervous and worried."
"The concern of many people is that Turkish ambition
may stretch beyond taking out the PKK."
Diplomatic insult
Another factor that has convinced Baghdad and the
Iraqi Kurds that Turkey is implacably bent on a
major incursion is the frosty reception given to the
high-ranking Iraqi government delegation that flew
to Ankara for crisis talks at the end of last week.
They were received in a manner that in protocol
terms was diplomatically insulting.
More than that, the Turkish side received the Iraqi
proposals impassively, did not discuss them, and did
not present any suggestions of their own, according
to senior Iraqi officials.
Turkey has watched the development of Iraqi Kurdish
autonomy with misgivings, anxiety and ill-concealed
hostility.
But at the same time Turkish companies have been
profitably involved in the economic and construction
boom and oil developments in Iraqi Kurdistan.
This factor may militate against a major
intervention, but also might not be strong enough to
withstand the tide of Turkish public demand for
action.
Will Turkey go ahead with a major incursion, and how
deep and far will it go?
The answer will emerge from the complex and
unpredictable interaction between various elements.
Inside Turkey, there is the fury currently ruling
public opinion and the uneasy relationship between
its powerful military and its civilian government.
Other factors that will influence the outcome
include the troubled state of affairs between Ankara
and Washington, America's dilemma - caught in the
crossfire between two allies - and the Iraqi Kurds'
own ambivalent ties with Baghdad.
Iraq and its Kurds are hoping the situation on the
ground will remain calm, and that international
diplomatic pressures will defuse the crisis.
A big conference of Iraq's neighbours and major
international players in Istanbul on 2-3 November,
along with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan's visit to Washington on 5 November could
improve the situation.
The least they can hope for at present is that the
Turks will focus any action strictly on the PKK in
the border mountains.
BBC
Since 1991, the Kurds of Iraq achieved self-rule in
part of the country. Today's teenagers are the first
generation to grow up under Kurdish rule. In the new
Iraqi Constitution, it is referred to as Kurdistan
region. Kurdistan region has all the trappings of an
independent state -- its own constitution, its own
parliament, its own flag, its own army, its own
border, its own border patrol, its own national
anthem, its own education system, its own
International airports, even its own stamp inked
into the passports of visitors.
Top |
Kurd Net
does not take credit for and is not responsible for the content of news
information on this page
|
® 