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Calls grow for Iraq partition
5.10.2007
By Simon Tisdall
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October
5, 2007
After months of gruelling work, including major
counter-insurgency operations in June, US commanders
in Iraq have growing reason to believe the
controversial "surge" policy is working. But as the
military gets a grip, the effectiveness and cohesion
of the civilian-led, Shia-dominated government in
Baghdad slips by the day. That is renewing talk of
partition. US officials say the number of Iraqi
civilians and American soldiers killed in September
was lower than at any time since January 2006. The
overall trend has been downwards for four months.
Lieutenant-general Raymond Odierno, the US deputy
commander, said this week that al-Qaida bases and
safe havens had been reduced by 60-70% since the
surge began.
Other contributory factors include increased
cooperation from Sunni Arab tribesmen across central
Iraq. Up to 30,000 Sunnis have reportedly
volunteered to help US and Iraqi-government forces
secure their neighbourhoods. After months of bitter
US complaints that Iran's Revolutionary Guard was
aiding Shia militias and arming renegade Sunnis
linked to al-Qaida, Tehran may be backing off. Gen
Odierno said the supply of weapons from Iran grew
dramatically from April to July, in support of a
summer offensive by insurgents.
But after a deal made with Tehran last month by
Iraq's Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, the
flow is slowing.
Sadly for the overall US strategy, political
progress is not keeping pace. Mr Maliki's coalition
government looks weaker than ever, unable to command
a working parliamentary majority, or to pass key
reconciliation measures. Seventeen ministries are
without a minister and much central government
funding remains frozen in the ruins of a collapsed
bureaucracy.
Sensing division among Shias and reduced commitment
from the Kurds, Sunni Arab and secular parties are
threatening a no-confidence vote. US congressional
criticism is mounting too. "There was just no sense
of urgency on the part of the prime minister to
drive the overarching goal that will help cement and
solidify Iraq as a united country," said Republican
senator Olympia Snowe after visiting Baghdad.
US officials, including President Bush, are leaning
hard on Mr Maliki. But ironically, their success in
thwarting Democrat attempts to impose a withdrawal
timetable, plus the surge's recent advances, may
have eased the immediate pressure on him. And if Mr
Maliki were to fall, neither Washington nor Iraq's
squabbling factions would easily find a viable
alternative.
The impotence of the Baghdad government, and the
willingness of tribal chiefs and provincial and
municipal-level leaders to take charge of their
security, budgets and social programmes, is
encouraging talk of partition - or at least
devolution of power beyond that envisaged in Iraq's
federal constitution.
Independence-minded Kurdistan, in 'northern Iraq',
is already going its own way. The Kurdistan regional
government
recently signed five unilateral oil exploration
deals, to fury in both Baghdad and Washington.
In the south, Mr Maliki's key Shia backer, the
Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, wants the nine
majority-Shia southern provinces to join what could
effectively become a state within a state. Its
existential power struggle with Moqtada al-Sadr's
Mahdi army, sworn opponent of Mr Maliki and the
Americans, is increasingly distracting its attention
from "national" priorities.
This has not gone unnoticed among US legislators and
policymakers such as Democrat senator Joe Biden, who
have long argued for Bosnia style, ethnically based
partition. Mr Biden won Senate approval last week
for a non-binding measure urging Iraq's division
into Sunni, Shia and Kurd regions.
"Attempts to partition or divide Iraq by
intimidation, force or other means would produce
extraordinary suffering and bloodshed," the US
government said. But many reply that, despite the
surge's recent successes, extraordinary suffering is
what Iraq has already got; and the illusion of
central control cannot be sustained much longer.
guardian co.uk
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